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Charlton crestCharlton
v
Portsmouth crestPortsmouth

Championship | Sat 12 Sep, 15:00

Charlton v Portsmouth Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Charlton visit Portsmouth at Fratton Park in a Championship clash where both teams share similar struggles in converting chances, setting the stage for a tactical battle. Charlton's direct, aerially strong approach contrasts with Portsmouth's possession-based style and reliance on width and crosses, particularly targeting Colby Bishop. Both sides are defensively solid but vulnerable in finishing, suggesting a tight contest with territorial battles focused on second balls and set-piece scenarios. Charlton's willingness to press high and exploit Portsmouth's set-piece weakness adds intrigue to this encounter, with both teams seeking to break a recent pattern of low-scoring draws.

BT4Y best bet

Charlton Win

  • Charlton's direct play and aerial strength challenge Portsmouth's possession and crossing style.
  • Both teams average around one goal per game, indicating a low-scoring, tight match.
  • Portsmouth's weakness defending set pieces contrasts with Charlton's aerial prowess.
  • Recent form shows Charlton slightly ahead in points and defensive solidity.
  • Previous meetings and tactical setups suggest a closely contested game with limited clear-cut chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Charlton to win based on their superior aerial duel success and tactical setup designed to exploit Portsmouth's defensive vulnerabilities, especially on set pieces. Despite Portsmouth's home advantage and higher possession, Charlton's direct style and defensive organization create a realistic chance for an away victory. The price offers strong value given the implied chance is much lower than the model's estimated probability. No data limitations affect , and the pick aligns well with the tactical and statistical context.

Aerial Duels WonCharlton average 24.3 per game vs Portsmouth's 22.2
Strong positive
Set-Piece DefenseCharlton strong vs Portsmouth weak
Strong positive
PossessionPortsmouth 49.7% vs Charlton 41.7%
Neutral
Goal ConversionBoth teams average ~1 goal per game
Neutral
Price Value Edge35.6% positive edge at 13/2 odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Charlton's tactical approach leveraging aerial strength and set-piece opportunities gives them a solid edge over Portsmouth, who struggle to convert chances despite higher possession. This match is likely to be tight, but Charlton's ability to exploit key weaknesses and maintain defensive discipline makes their win a plausible outcome.

Main risk

Charlton’s 21 goals in 22 Championship games puts them a touch higher, but not wildly so.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical edge for Charlton

“Charlton's direct style and aerial control could unsettle Portsmouth's possession-based game, especially exploiting set-piece vulnerabilities to secure a valuable away win.”

Key Data Signals

Charlton Win evidence

Charlton's direct play and aerial strength challenge Portsmouth's possession and crossing style.

Both teams average around one goal per game, indicating a low-scoring, tight match.

Portsmouth's weakness defending set pieces contrasts with Charlton's aerial prowess.

Recent form shows Charlton slightly ahead in points and defensive solidity.

What To Watch In The Data

Charlton Win notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 3.1, indicating a moderate scoring trend.
  • However, recent encounters have been low scoring and tightly contested, suggesting this match may follow a similar pattern with goals likely coming from set pieces or second-ball situations rather than open play.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Charlton4.4
Avg corners for
Portsmouth6
Charlton11.6
Avg total corners
Portsmouth11.25
Charlton1.8
Avg yellow cards
Portsmouth0.25
Charlton9.6
Avg shots
Portsmouth14.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 50% · edge +1.3 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Portsmouth average more corners (7.0) and shots (16.0) than Charlton (4.4 corners, 9.6 shots), reflecting their possession and width-based approach. Charlton's higher yellow card average (1.8 vs 0.4) indicates a more physical style, likely to disrupt Portsmouth's rhythm and generate set-piece opportunities.

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Championship fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Charlton v Portsmouthcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Charlton0.8
Avg goals scored
Portsmouth1.4
Charlton1.2
Avg goals conceded
Portsmouth1.6
Charlton40%
BTTS rate
Portsmouth60%
Charlton40%
Over 2.5 goals
Portsmouth60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 46% · edge +11.7 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams average just under one goal per game, with Charlton's 40% BTTS rate and Portsmouth's 60% indicating a moderate likelihood of goals from Portsmouth but a generally low-scoring affair. The match's tactical emphasis on aerial duels and set pieces suggests goals may come from dead-ball situations rather than open play.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCharlton to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 36% · edge +12.5 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Charlton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
The current for Charlton to win at 13/2 offer significant value compared to the model's 48.9% win probability. This price reflects market caution given Portsmouth's home advantage, but the tactical and statistical factors support a higher chance for Charlton, making this a price-sensitive but attractive selection.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Charlton

DLDWW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 1L
09 Sep 2026H QPR0-0
05 Sep 2026A Stoke City0-4
02 Sep 2026A West Brom1-1
29 Aug 2026H Preston1-0
22 Aug 2026A West Ham2-1

Portsmouth

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 3L
05 Sep 2026H Cardiff2-0
01 Sep 2026H Derby0-2
29 Aug 2026A Bristol City1-2
22 Aug 2026A Lincoln3-1
15 Aug 2026H QPR1-3
Market aligned with main pickCharlton to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 36% · edge +12.5 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Charlton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Charlton have accumulated 8 points recently compared to Portsmouth's 6, showing slightly better momentum. Charlton's defensive solidity, conceding 1.2 goals per game versus Portsmouth's 1.6, supports their ability to contain Portsmouth's attacks and capitalize on set-piece chances.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Charlton wins
3Draws
3Portsmouth wins
17 Feb 2026Charlton v Portsmouth1-3
29 Dec 2025Portsmouth v Charlton2-1
03 Aug 2024Charlton v Portsmouth2-0
24 Feb 2024Charlton v Portsmouth0-0
11 Nov 2023Portsmouth v Charlton2-2
01 Jan 2023Portsmouth v Charlton1-3
Market aligned with main pickCharlton to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 36% · edge +12.5 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The head-to-head record between these teams shows a balanced contest with an average of 3.1 goals per game over 10 matches. The recent 0-0 draw earlier this month underscores their defensive strengths and difficulty in breaking each other down, reinforcing the expectation of a tight, tactical game.
Season team stats

Championship

Charlton6
Played
Portsmouth5
Charlton1
Avg goals for
Portsmouth1.4
Charlton1.2
Avg goals against
Portsmouth1.6
Charlton2
Clean sheets
Portsmouth1
Market aligned with main pickCharlton to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 36% · edge +12.5 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Charlton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Charlton's season stats reveal a team built on defensive strength and aerial control, scoring 21 goals in 22 matches with a lower possession rate but effective direct play. Portsmouth's higher possession and shot volume have not translated into better results, highlighting Charlton's efficiency and tactical discipline.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Charlton116321-1
17Portsmouth65203-1
Charlton sit 5th with 11 points, comfortably ahead of Portsmouth in 17th with 6 points. This gap reflects Charlton's steadier form and better results, suggesting they have more and quality to secure a win despite playing away.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Charlton Over 2.5
60%Portsmouth Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 3.1, indicating a moderate scoring trend. However, recent encounters have been low scoring and tightly contested, suggesting this match may follow a similar pattern with goals likely coming from set pieces or second-ball situations rather than open play.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Charlton v Portsmouth prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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