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Celta de Vigo II crestCelta de Vigo II
v
Sabadell crestSabadell

Segunda División | Sat 26 Sep, 17:30

Celta de Vigo II v Sabadell Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sabadell enters this Segunda División clash against Celta de Vigo II in strong form, positioned sixth in the league with 11 points from recent matches. They have demonstrated defensive solidity, conceding just one goal per game on average, while maintaining a balanced attack scoring 1.4 goals per match. Celta de Vigo II, ranked 15th, have struggled defensively, allowing two goals per game and scoring slightly less frequently. Sabadell's tactical discipline and recent momentum suggest they can capitalize on Celta de Vigo II's defensive vulnerabilities in this away fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Sabadell to Win

  • Sabadell ranks 6th with 11 points, showing better form than 15th-placed Celta de Vigo II.
  • Sabadell concedes only 1 goal per game, compared to Celta de Vigo II's 2 goals against per match.
  • Both teams average similar goals scored (1.4), but Sabadell's defense is more robust.
  • Sabadell's shot volume and accuracy slightly surpass Celta de Vigo II, indicating offensive edge.
  • Head-to-head matches have been high scoring, but Sabadell's recent form favors a win.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Sabadell to win with a 62.8% chance, reflecting their superior league position, defensive record, and recent form. Sabadell's ability to limit goals conceded to one per game contrasts with Celta de Vigo II's leaky defense, conceding twice as many. Offensive metrics such as shots on target and goal threat indexes further support Sabadell's edge. The price offers positive value with a 19.3% , making this a confident selection without price warnings. The data quality is solid, with no limitations on team stats.

Model Win Probability62.8%
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthSabadell concedes 1 goal/game vs 2 for Celta II
Strong positive
Offensive MetricsSabadell averages more shots and shots on target
Positive
Value Edge19.3% positive value
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sabadell's superior defensive discipline and consistent form make them the tactical favorite in this fixture. Their ability to limit opponents' chances and maintain offensive pressure should translate into a well-earned victory away from home. The data confirms their edge in key performance areas, supporting a confident backing for the away win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Sabadell

“Sabadell's blend of defensive resilience and efficient attacking patterns positions them strongly to secure all three points here. Their recent performances show a team capable of controlling matches and capitalizing on opponents' defensive weaknesses.”

Key Data Signals

Sabadell to Win evidence

Sabadell ranks 6th with 11 points, showing better form than 15th-placed Celta de Vigo II.

Sabadell concedes only 1 goal per game, compared to Celta de Vigo II's 2 goals against per match.

Both teams average similar goals scored (1.4), but Sabadell's defense is more robust.

Sabadell's shot volume and accuracy slightly surpass Celta de Vigo II, indicating offensive edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Sabadell to Win notes

  • Recent matches and head-to-head data show an average of 4.5 goals over two meetings, indicating potential for open play.
  • However, Sabadell's recent defensive form and Celta de Vigo II's struggles suggest a more measured tempo.
  • The Over 2.5 Goals rate is 40% for Sabadell and 60% for Celta de Vigo II, pointing to a moderate likelihood of goals but with controlled attacking phases favoring Sabadell's win.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Celta de Vigo II1.4
Avg goals scored
Sabadell1.4
Celta de Vigo II2
Avg goals conceded
Sabadell1
Celta de Vigo II40%
BTTS rate
Sabadell40%
Celta de Vigo II60%
Over 2.5 goals
Sabadell40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 49% · edge +6.6 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Both teams average 1.4 goals per game, but Sabadell's stronger defense reduces the likelihood of a high-scoring contest. Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, suggesting moderate chances for both sides to score. The head-to-head average of 4.5 goals over two matches indicates potential for goals, but recent defensive trends suggest a controlled game favoring Sabadell's win.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Celta de Vigo II

LLWLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 3L
20 Sep 2026A Almeria0-2
14 Sep 2026H Eibar0-4
05 Sep 2026A AD Ceuta FC2-0
31 Aug 2026H Castellón1-2
24 Aug 2026H FC Andorra4-2

Sabadell

WLWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 1L
20 Sep 2026H Oviedo3-1
13 Sep 2026A Mallorca0-2
07 Sep 2026H Cordoba3-2
29 Aug 2026H Almeria1-0
23 Aug 2026A Castellón0-0
Market aligned with main pickSabadell to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Sabadell Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Sabadell has collected 10 points recently, outperforming Celta de Vigo II's 6 points, reflecting better momentum. Sabadell's defense has been more consistent, conceding fewer goals, which aligns with their higher league standing. This form advantage supports in an away win, especially given Celta de Vigo II's struggles to maintain defensive stability.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Sabadell1163212
15Celta de Vigo II76213-3
Sabadell sits comfortably in 6th place with 11 points, indicating a push for promotion or playoff contention, while Celta de Vigo II languishes in 15th with 7 points. The standings reflect Sabadell's superior consistency and competitive edge, suggesting greater motivation and quality to claim three points in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSabadell to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Sabadell Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
The for Sabadell to win reflect a positive value opportunity, with the model assigning a 62.8% chance against an implied market chance of 43.5%. This discrepancy highlights the market underestimating Sabadell's form and defensive solidity. The current price is attractive and justifies a standard stake without caution.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Celta de Vigo II4.2
Avg corners for
Sabadell4.2
Celta de Vigo II7.8
Avg total corners
Sabadell7.4
Celta de Vigo II2.8
Avg yellow cards
Sabadell3
Celta de Vigo II14.6
Avg shots
Sabadell15.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 50% · edge -13.4 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Shot data shows Sabadell averages slightly more shots (15.8) and shots on target (5.2) than Celta de Vigo II (14.6 shots, 5.0 on target), indicating offensive pressure. Both teams average 4.2 corners, suggesting balanced territorial play. Discipline-wise, Sabadell concedes slightly more yellows (3.0 vs 2.8), reflecting a competitive but controlled match environment.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Celta de Vigo II wins
0Draws
1Sabadell wins
21 Jan 2024Sabadell v Celta de Vigo II2-1
28 Oct 2023Celta de Vigo II v Sabadell4-2
Market aligned with main pickSabadell to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The two previous encounters between these teams have been high scoring, averaging 4.5 goals per match, which suggests open games historically. However, the small sample size and current form differences mean this trend should be considered background context rather than a decisive factor for this match outcome.
Season team stats

Segunda División

Celta de Vigo II6
Played
Sabadell6
Celta de Vigo II1.2
Avg goals for
Sabadell1.2
Celta de Vigo II1.7
Avg goals against
Sabadell0.8
Celta de Vigo II2
Clean sheets
Sabadell3
Market aligned with main pickSabadell to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Sabadell Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Over the season, Sabadell's defensive record stands out with only 1 goal conceded per match, compared to Celta de Vigo II's 2. Both teams score similarly, but Sabadell's ability to limit opposition chances underpins their stronger position. These season-long stats reinforce Sabadell's profile as a team capable of controlling matches and securing victories.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Celta de Vigo II Over 2.5
40%Sabadell Over 2.5
4.5H2H avg goals
Recent matches and head-to-head data show an average of 4.5 goals over two meetings, indicating potential for open play. However, Sabadell's recent defensive form and Celta de Vigo II's struggles suggest a more measured tempo. The Over 2.5 Goals rate is 40% for Sabadell and 60% for Celta de Vigo II, pointing to a moderate likelihood of goals but with controlled attacking phases favoring Sabadell's win.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.