AD Ceuta FC

Real Sociedad II

Segunda División | Sat 26 Sep, 13:00

AD Ceuta FC v Real Sociedad II Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Real Sociedad II arrives in stronger form and mid-table security, facing AD Ceuta FC who sit bottom with just one point. Real Sociedad II's more consistent attack and tighter defense contrast with Ceuta's struggles to score and frequent concessions. This Segunda División clash at an unspecified venue pits a confident away side against a team seeking first wins, setting a tactical battle where Real Sociedad II's momentum and balanced squad depth could prove decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Real Sociedad II to Win

Real Sociedad II holds a 70% to win, with offering strong value at 3.2.
Ceuta FC has scored only 0.4 goals per game and conceded 2.2, highlighting offensive struggles and defensive vulnerability.
Real Sociedad II averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, showing better balance.
Recent form favors Real Sociedad II with 8 points from last matches versus Ceuta's single point.
Player data shows Real Sociedad II's Javier Soroeta as a key attacking threat with 1 goal and 1.73 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Real Sociedad II due to their superior recent form, goal-scoring ability, and defensive stability compared to AD Ceuta FC. Real Sociedad II's 70% win probability reflects their consistent output and Ceuta's ongoing difficulties in attack and defense. The at 3.2 present a positive , supported by player-level data highlighting key contributors like Javier Soroeta. No data limitations affect in this pick, making it a solid value selection based on current performance and squad quality.

Model Win Probability70%

Strong positive

Implied Market Chance31.3%

Strong positive

Value Edge38.7%

Strong positive

Recent Form Points (Away)8 vs 1

Strong positive

Goal Scoring Rate (Away)1.6 goals per game

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Real Sociedad II's superior form and balanced attack-defence profile make them the logical choice to win this fixture. Their ability to create and convert chances, combined with Ceuta's defensive frailties, suggests Real Sociedad II can secure victory despite playing away. The data supports backing the away side for a confident result.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage

“Real Sociedad II's consistent attacking threat and defensive resilience provide a clear tactical advantage over AD Ceuta FC, whose struggles in both areas make them vulnerable in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Real Sociedad II to Win evidence

Real Sociedad II holds a 70% to win, with offering strong value at 3.2.

Ceuta FC has scored only 0.4 goals per game and conceded 2.2, highlighting offensive struggles and defensive vulnerability.

Real Sociedad II averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, showing better balance.

Recent form favors Real Sociedad II with 8 points from last matches versus Ceuta's single point.

What To Watch In The Data

Real Sociedad II to Win notes

Over the last five matches, Real Sociedad II has a 60% rate of games finishing over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency for open, attacking games.
AD Ceuta FC's 40% rate is lower, but combined with Real Sociedad II's offensive strength, this trend suggests a higher likelihood of a goal-rich encounter in this fixture.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AD Ceuta FC0.4

Avg goals scored

Real Sociedad II1.6

AD Ceuta FC2.2

Avg goals conceded

Real Sociedad II1.2

AD Ceuta FC40%

BTTS rate

Real Sociedad II80%

AD Ceuta FC40%

Over 2.5 goals

Real Sociedad II60%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 62% · edge +11.6 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 56%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Goal trends show Real Sociedad II averaging 1.6 goals per game with a high BTTS rate of 80%, while AD Ceuta FC struggles offensively with 0.4 goals per game and a 40% BTTS rate. This suggests Real Sociedad II's attack is likely to break through Ceuta's porous defense, supporting a goal-scoring match with potential BTTS.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AD Ceuta FC

DLLLL

Last 50W 1D 4L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 1D 5L

20 Sep 2026H Valladolid1-1

11 Sep 2026A Burgos1-3

05 Sep 2026H Celta de Vigo II0-2

30 Aug 2026A Mallorca0-3

22 Aug 2026H Las Palmas0-2

Real Sociedad II

LWDDW

Last 52W 2D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 2D 2L

19 Sep 2026H Mallorca0-1

12 Sep 2026A FC Andorra3-1

05 Sep 2026H Tenerife1-1

31 Aug 2026A Burgos2-2

22 Aug 2026A Albacete2-1

Market aligned with main pickReal Sociedad II to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Real Sociedad II Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Recent form heavily favors Real Sociedad II, who have accumulated 8 points compared to AD Ceuta FC's single point. This contrast reflects Real Sociedad II's momentum and , while Ceuta's poor results underline ongoing challenges in both attack and defense, reinforcing the away side's winning prospects.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
12	Real Sociedad II	8	6	2	2	2	1
22	AD Ceuta FC	1	6	0	1	5	-13

The league table positions Real Sociedad II comfortably in 12th place with 8 points, reflecting mid-table stability. AD Ceuta FC sits at the bottom with just 1 point, indicating pressure and poor form. This standings context suggests Real Sociedad II can approach the match with and less pressure, enhancing their chances to win.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickReal Sociedad II to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Real Sociedad II Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 55%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

The for Real Sociedad II to win at 3.2 offer a strong value proposition given the model's 70% win probability. This significant indicates the market underestimates Real Sociedad II's chances, making the bet attractive without price warnings or reduced stake concerns.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

AD Ceuta FC5.4

Avg corners for

Real Sociedad II3.8

AD Ceuta FC8.4

Avg total corners

Real Sociedad II8.6

AD Ceuta FC2.6

Avg yellow cards

Real Sociedad II2.4

AD Ceuta FC13.2

Avg shots

Real Sociedad II12

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 58% · edge -3 pts

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

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Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 49%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

AD Ceuta FC averages more corners (5.4) than Real Sociedad II (3.8), indicating they may press offensively despite scoring struggles. Both teams average similar yellow cards (2.4), suggesting a balanced fouling profile. Real Sociedad II's slightly higher shots on target (3.8 vs 3.2) reflect better finishing opportunities and attacking pressure.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1AD Ceuta FC wins

1Draws

0Real Sociedad II wins

10 Apr 2026AD Ceuta FC v Real Sociedad II0-0

21 Dec 2025Real Sociedad II v AD Ceuta FC1-3

Market aligned with main pickReal Sociedad II to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

The head-to-head sample is limited to two matches with an average of 2 goals per game, providing a modest background. While not strongly predictive, this suggests moderately open games historically, but current form and squad quality weigh more heavily for this match.

Season team stats

Segunda División

AD Ceuta FC6

Played

Real Sociedad II6

AD Ceuta FC0.5

Avg goals for

Real Sociedad II1.3

AD Ceuta FC2.7

Avg goals against

Real Sociedad II1.2

AD Ceuta FC0

Clean sheets

Real Sociedad II0

Market aligned with main pickReal Sociedad II to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

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Real Sociedad II Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Season-long stats show Real Sociedad II with a balanced attack scoring 1.6 goals per game and a solid defense conceding 1.2. In contrast, AD Ceuta FC's 0.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game reveal defensive weaknesses and offensive inefficiency, supporting Real Sociedad II's likelihood to control the match and secure victory.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%AD Ceuta FC Over 2.5

60%Real Sociedad II Over 2.5

2H2H avg goals

Over the last five matches, Real Sociedad II has a 60% rate of games finishing over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency for open, attacking games. AD Ceuta FC's 40% rate is lower, but combined with Real Sociedad II's offensive strength, this trend suggests a higher likelihood of a goal-rich encounter in this fixture.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

AD Ceuta FC v Real Sociedad II Stats

Match Report

Real Sociedad II to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

AD Ceuta FC

Real Sociedad II

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AD Ceuta FC v Real Sociedad II Stats

Match Report

Real Sociedad II to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

AD Ceuta FC

Real Sociedad II

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