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Celje crestCelje
v
Omonia Nicosia crestOmonia Nicosia

UEFA Europa League | Thu 15 Oct, 17:45

Celje v Omonia Nicosia Stats

Data last updated: Wed 14 Oct 2026, 12:04 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Europa League fixture features Celje hosting Omonia Nicosia, with the away side arriving in stronger recent form and better continental experience. Omonia Nicosia have collected 10 points recently, scoring at a rate of 1.4 goals per game while conceding less than one, contrasting with Celje's struggles to score and their defensive vulnerabilities. The tactical setup suggests Omonia Nicosia will look to control the game through efficient attacking transitions and disciplined defense, aiming to capitalize on Celje's offensive shortcomings and secure a valuable away victory.

BT4Y best bet

Omonia Nicosia to Win

  • Omonia Nicosia have a 70% to win, with positive value at 2.8
  • Celje have scored no goals recently and have a 0% BTTS rate, indicating offensive struggles
  • Omonia Nicosia average 9.25 shots and 4.25 shots on target per game, showing attacking pressure
  • Celje average only 2 corners per game versus Omonia's 2.75, suggesting less territorial control
  • Omonia Nicosia maintain a more disciplined approach with 1.25 yellow cards per game compared to Celje's zero

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Omonia Nicosia to win due to their superior recent form, stronger attacking output, and more consistent defensive record. Their average of 1.4 goals scored per game and 0.8 conceded contrasts sharply with Celje's lack of goals and higher goals conceded. Omonia's ability to generate more shots and shots on target underlines their offensive threat. The positive at 2.8 supports backing Omonia Nicosia despite the away setting. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Recent formOmonia Nicosia 10 points vs Celje 0
Strong positive
Goals scored/conceded1.4/0.8 vs 0/2
Strong positive
Shots per game9.25 vs 5
Positive
BTTS rate40% vs 0%
Positive
Price value edge39.1% model chance vs 35.7% implied (+3.4 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Omonia Nicosia's superior recent form and attacking efficiency make them the clear choice to win this Europa League clash. Their ability to create and convert chances, combined with a more stable defense, suggests they can overcome the home side's resistance and secure the three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Omonia Nicosia's consistent offensive pressure and defensive solidity set them apart in this matchup, making them the logical pick for victory despite playing away.”

Key Data Signals

Omonia Nicosia to Win evidence

Omonia Nicosia have a 70% to win, with positive value at 2.8

Celje have scored no goals recently and have a 0% BTTS rate, indicating offensive struggles

Omonia Nicosia average 9.25 shots and 4.25 shots on target per game, showing attacking pressure

Celje average only 2 corners per game versus Omonia's 2.75, suggesting less territorial control

What To Watch In The Data

Omonia Nicosia to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Omonia Nicosia have an Over 2.5 Goals rate of 20%, indicating relatively low-scoring games but with occasional goal bursts.
  • Celje have a 0% Over 2.5 rate, reflecting their scoring difficulties.
  • The trend suggests a moderate tempo with limited high-scoring potential, but Omonia's attacking quality could still produce enough goals to secure a win.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Celje0
Avg goals scored
Omonia Nicosia1.4
Celje2
Avg goals conceded
Omonia Nicosia0.8
Celje0%
BTTS rate
Omonia Nicosia40%
Celje0%
Over 2.5 goals
Omonia Nicosia20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Celje have failed to score recently and have a 0% BTTS rate, while Omonia Nicosia score 1.4 goals per game and have a 40% BTTS rate. This suggests a low likelihood of both teams scoring, but Omonia's offensive threat could still produce goals. The goal trend favors Omonia Nicosia controlling the scoring, with limited risk of a high-scoring game.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Europa League analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOmonia Nicosia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 36% · edge +3.4 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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Omonia Nicosia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 39.1% for Omonia Nicosia to Win sits against roughly 35.7% implied by the current price (+3.4 pts). Omonia Nicosia have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 0 for Celje.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Celje

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
16 Sep 2026A Bayer Leverkusen0-2

Omonia Nicosia

WWLWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 1L
16 Sep 2026H Celta Vigo1-0
27 Aug 2026H St. Truiden4-2
20 Aug 2026A St. Truiden0-1
13 Aug 2026H Lincoln Red Imps FC1-0
06 Aug 2026A Lincoln Red Imps FC1-1
Market aligned with main pickOmonia Nicosia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 36% · edge +3.4 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Omonia Nicosia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Omonia Nicosia's recent form is strong, with 10 points and an average of 1.4 goals scored per game, reflecting effective attacking and defensive balance. Celje's form is poor, with no points and no goals scored recently, indicating offensive struggles and defensive vulnerabilities. This contrast in momentum heavily favors Omonia Nicosia to control the match and secure victory.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Celje Over 2.5
20%Omonia Nicosia Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Omonia Nicosia have an Over 2.5 Goals rate of 20%, indicating relatively low-scoring games but with occasional goal bursts. Celje have a 0% Over 2.5 rate, reflecting their scoring difficulties. The trend suggests a moderate tempo with limited high-scoring potential, but Omonia's attacking quality could still produce enough goals to secure a win.

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