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Caracas FC crestCaracas FC
v
Santa Fe crestSanta Fe

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Fri 31 Jul, 01:30

Caracas FC v Santa Fe Stats

Data last updated: Thu 30 Jul 2026, 04:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Santa Fe host Caracas FC at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in a crucial Copa Sudamericana knockout first leg. Santa Fe arrive unbeaten in seven of their last eight matches, boasting a potent home attack with 16 goals in six games and high passing accuracy. Caracas FC bring resilience from their unbeaten away run in group stages, scoring consistently but struggling to maintain leads. Both teams deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation, promising a tactical midfield battle with wide rotations and transition threats. Defensive absences for Santa Fe add intrigue, while Caracas' ability to open scoring but not always secure wins sets a tense tone for this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Santa Fe to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Santa Fe unbeaten in seven of last eight matches with strong home scoring form.
  • Caracas FC unbeaten away in Sudamericana group stage, scoring in all six away matches.
  • Santa Fe average 85% pass accuracy and 56% of shots from inside the box at home.
  • Caracas FC scored first in five of six group matches but failed to win three times after leading.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Santa Fe to Win & Both Teams to Score with a 26.9% chance, slightly above the implied market of 23.8%, indicating positive value. Santa Fe's dominant home form and high-quality attacking metrics combine with Caracas FC's consistent away scoring and tendency to concede goals. The tactical setup and recent scoring trends support a match with goals at both ends and a home victory. No data limitations affect , and the price reflects a fair value opportunity with standard staking recommended.

Model Chance vs Implied Chance26.9% vs 23.8%
Positive
Santa Fe Home Attack16 goals in last 6 home matches, 85% pass accuracy
Strong positive
Caracas Away ScoringScored in all 6 recent away matches
Strong positive
Defensive VulnerabilitiesBoth teams concede regularly, supporting BTTS
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Santa Fe's commanding home form and tactical control position them well to secure victory, while Caracas' consistent away scoring ensures both teams will find the net. The combination of Santa Fe's attacking precision and Caracas' resilience underlines the likelihood of goals at both ends alongside a home win.

Main risk

Their opening plans have generally worked, but their ability to protect an advantage remains open to question.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and scoring dynamics

“Santa Fe's high passing accuracy and central midfield control create a platform for sustained pressure, while Caracas' ability to score first but struggle to maintain leads sets up a compelling tactical duel with goals likely at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Santa Fe to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Santa Fe unbeaten in seven of last eight matches with strong home scoring form.

Caracas FC unbeaten away in Sudamericana group stage, scoring in all six away matches.

Santa Fe average 85% pass accuracy and 56% of shots from inside the box at home.

Caracas FC scored first in five of six group matches but failed to win three times after leading.

What To Watch In The Data

Santa Fe to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last six matches, Caracas FC have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, while Santa Fe have a 0% rate, indicating contrasting scoring patterns.
  • The average goals in their single head-to-head meeting was 2, suggesting a moderately open game.
  • The trend points to a match with goal-scoring opportunities but possibly controlled tempo, aligning with the combined pick.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Caracas FC1.4
Avg goals scored
Santa Fe2
Caracas FC2
Avg goals conceded
Santa Fe0
Caracas FC80%
BTTS rate
Santa Fe0%
Caracas FC60%
Over 2.5 goals
Santa Fe0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +12.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability recently, with Santa Fe netting in all last five home matches and Caracas scoring in all six away fixtures. Defensive frailties on both sides and tactical openness suggest a match with multiple goals and goals at both ends, supporting the BTTS component.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSanta Fe Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 50% · edge +7 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Santa Fe to WinBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
The market price of 4.2 for Santa Fe to Win & Both Teams to Score aligns well with the model's 26.9% chance, indicating a small positive . This reflects Santa Fe's strong home scoring and Caracas' consistent away goals, making the combined bet a sensible choice without major price sensitivity concerns.

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Caracas FC4.75
Avg corners for
Santa Fe5
Caracas FC9.25
Avg total corners
Santa Fe7
Caracas FC1.25
Avg yellow cards
Santa Fe0
Caracas FC12.25
Avg shots
Santa Fe13
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 52% · edge -4.9 pts
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
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Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 39%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Santa Fe average 13 shots per game with 3 on target, while Caracas average 11.2 shots and 3.6 on target, indicating active attacking play from both sides. Corner counts are similar, with Santa Fe slightly higher, reflecting territorial pressure. Discipline is moderate, with Caracas averaging 1.4 yellows per game and Santa Fe none, suggesting a controlled but competitive encounter.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Caracas FC

LLDWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 2L
24 Jul 2026A Santa Fe0-2
27 May 2026H Botafogo1-3
22 May 2026A Racing Club2-2
05 May 2026A Independiente Petrolero3-2
29 Apr 2026H Racing Club1-1

Santa Fe

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
24 Jul 2026H Caracas FC2-0
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 74% · edge +1.8 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Santa Fe Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Santa Fe to WinBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Santa Fe's recent form shows strong home control with 16 goals scored and only 4 conceded in six matches, reflecting attacking efficiency and defensive solidity. Caracas FC maintain an unbeaten away streak with consistent scoring but have conceded more goals, indicating resilience but also defensive vulnerability. This contrast in form supports a home win with goals at both ends.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Caracas FC wins
0Draws
1Santa Fe wins
24 Jul 2026Santa Fe v Caracas FC2-0
Market aligned with main pickSanta Fe to WinBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 43% · edge +4.6 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
The teams have met once previously, with an average of 2 goals scored in that fixture. This limited head-to-head sample offers minimal direct insight but suggests a competitive match with moderate scoring. Current form and tactical setups provide stronger guidance for this encounter.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Caracas FC8
Played
Santa Fe1
Caracas FC1.3
Avg goals for
Santa Fe2
Caracas FC1.4
Avg goals against
Santa Fe0
Caracas FC2
Clean sheets
Santa Fe1
Market aligned with main pickSanta Fe Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 50% · edge +7 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Santa Fe to WinBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Santa Fe's season stats highlight a high volume of shots and superior passing accuracy, underpinning their attacking threat at home. Caracas FC's balanced goal record and solid away scoring demonstrate their ability to challenge opponents offensively, though their defensive record suggests susceptibility to conceding, reinforcing the BTTS angle.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Caracas FC962310
While Caracas FC rank second in their group with 9 points, Santa Fe's exact ranking is unavailable, limiting direct table comparison. However, Santa Fe's unbeaten home run and recent form suggest strong competitive momentum, making the standings a background factor rather than a decisive element in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Caracas FC Over 2.5
0%Santa Fe Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last six matches, Caracas FC have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, while Santa Fe have a 0% rate, indicating contrasting scoring patterns. The average goals in their single head-to-head meeting was 2, suggesting a moderately open game. The trend points to a match with goal-scoring opportunities but possibly controlled tempo, aligning with the combined pick.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Caracas FC v Santa Fe prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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