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Burgos crestBurgos
v
AD Ceuta FC crestAD Ceuta FC

Segunda División | Fri 11 Sep, 19:30

Burgos v AD Ceuta FC Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 08:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Burgos host AD Ceuta FC in a Segunda División clash where Burgos have shown more promise early in the season, accumulating 5 points compared to AD Ceuta FC's 0. Burgos have balanced attacking and defensive output, scoring and conceding 1.25 goals per game, while AD Ceuta FC struggle defensively, conceding 3 goals per match on average. The home side's tactical setup and recent form suggest they will look to control the game and capitalize on Ceuta's defensive vulnerabilities in this Friday evening fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Burgos to Win

  • Burgos hold a 74% to win with positive value at 1.65 .
  • Burgos have scored 1.25 goals per game and maintain a 50% BTTS rate, indicating balanced attack and defense.
  • AD Ceuta FC concede 3 goals per match on average, highlighting defensive frailty.
  • Burgos attackers like Álex Forés and Jon Karrikaburu show strong shot volumes and goal threat.
  • Recent form favors Burgos with 5 points versus Ceuta's 0, reinforcing home advantage.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Burgos to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and balanced attack-defense metrics. Burgos average 12 shots per game with key attackers like Álex Forés and Jon Karrikaburu providing consistent offensive threat. AD Ceuta FC's defensive struggles, conceding 3 goals per game, further tilt the . The price at 1.65 offers positive value without warning flags, making Burgos a solid pick backed by data and tactical context.

Model chance74%
Strong positive
Implied chance vs model60.6% vs 74%
Strong positive
Burgos attack12 shots/game, 1.25 goals/game
Positive
AD Ceuta FC defense3 goals conceded/game
Negative
Recent formBurgos 5 points, AD Ceuta FC 0 points
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Burgos' superior form and attacking depth, led by players like Álex Forés, give them a clear edge over AD Ceuta FC, who have struggled defensively. The home side's ability to create and convert chances should secure a win in this fixture, making Burgos to win a confident tactical and statistical choice.

Main risk

Ceuta are slightly busier on the ball and marginally more active in front of goal, but Burgos are far tighter where it matters most.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical match-up

“Burgos demonstrate a well-rounded attacking approach with multiple players contributing shots and goals, while AD Ceuta FC's defensive vulnerabilities make them susceptible at the back. This combination strongly supports a home win in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Burgos to Win evidence

Burgos hold a 74% to win with positive value at 1.65 .

Burgos have scored 1.25 goals per game and maintain a 50% BTTS rate, indicating balanced attack and defense.

AD Ceuta FC concede 3 goals per match on average, highlighting defensive frailty.

Burgos attackers like Álex Forés and Jon Karrikaburu show strong shot volumes and goal threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Burgos to Win notes

  • In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored were 1.5, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters.
  • However, both teams have a 50% rate for over 2.5 goals in recent matches, suggesting this fixture could see more open play and goal opportunities due to AD Ceuta FC's defensive issues.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Burgos1.25
Avg goals scored
AD Ceuta FC0.25
Burgos1.25
Avg goals conceded
AD Ceuta FC3
Burgos50%
BTTS rate
AD Ceuta FC25%
Burgos50%
Over 2.5 goals
AD Ceuta FC50%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 51% · edge +7.8 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
3
Check odds @ 3
Both teams have a 50% rate for over 2.5 goals, but AD Ceuta FC's low BTTS rate of 25% and high goals conceded (3 per game) indicate matches may be open with chances for Burgos to score multiple goals. Burgos' balanced scoring and conceding suggest a game with goals but not necessarily both teams scoring consistently.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Burgos

DDLW
Last 51W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 1L
06 Sep 2026A Oviedo0-0
31 Aug 2026H Real Sociedad II2-2
23 Aug 2026A Sporting Gijon0-1
16 Aug 2026H Cordoba3-2

AD Ceuta FC

LLLL
Last 50W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 4L
05 Sep 2026H Celta de Vigo II0-2
30 Aug 2026A Mallorca0-3
22 Aug 2026H Las Palmas0-2
15 Aug 2026A FC Andorra1-5
Market aligned with main pickBurgos to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 61% · edge +13.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
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Burgos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Burgos have collected 5 points from their recent matches, showing resilience and ability to secure results, while AD Ceuta FC have yet to earn points, highlighting struggles in form and . Burgos' ability to score and concede evenly suggests competitive matches, but their form advantage is clear heading into this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
13Burgos541210
22AD Ceuta FC04004-11
Burgos sit 13th with 5 points, comfortably ahead of AD Ceuta FC who are bottom at 22nd with no points. While the league position reflects current form gaps, the standings mainly provide background as the match stakes focus on early season momentum and building for both sides.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBurgos to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 61% · edge +13.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
Burgos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The for Burgos to win at 1.65 reflect a positive value opportunity given the model's 74% win probability. This price is attractive considering Burgos' balanced attack and Ceuta's defensive weaknesses, suggesting the market underestimates Burgos' chances slightly, making it a value bet without price warnings.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Burgos4.25
Avg corners for
AD Ceuta FC4.75
Burgos10.25
Avg total corners
AD Ceuta FC8
Burgos2
Avg yellow cards
AD Ceuta FC2
Burgos12
Avg shots
AD Ceuta FC11.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 48% · edge +9.3 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Burgos average 4.25 corners and 12 shots per game, indicating steady attacking pressure. AD Ceuta FC's similar corner count but higher goals conceded suggests defensive lapses under pressure. Both teams average 2 yellow cards per game, pointing to a moderately physical contest with potential set-piece opportunities.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Burgos wins
1Draws
1AD Ceuta FC wins
01 Apr 2026Burgos v AD Ceuta FC1-1
29 Nov 2025AD Ceuta FC v Burgos1-0
Market aligned with main pickBurgos to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 61% · edge +13.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The two previous meetings between Burgos and AD Ceuta FC have averaged 1.5 goals per game, suggesting cautious encounters historically. This limited sample offers some context but is outweighed by current form and defensive trends favoring Burgos in this match.
Season team stats

Segunda División

Burgos4
Played
AD Ceuta FC4
Burgos1.3
Avg goals for
AD Ceuta FC0.3
Burgos1.3
Avg goals against
AD Ceuta FC3
Burgos1
Clean sheets
AD Ceuta FC0
Market aligned with main pickBurgos to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 61% · edge +13.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
Burgos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Over the season, Burgos maintain a balanced attack and defense, scoring and conceding 1.25 goals per game, which supports their ability to win tight matches. AD Ceuta FC's defensive record is poor with 3 goals conceded per game, indicating vulnerability that Burgos can exploit to secure victory.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Burgos Over 2.5
50%AD Ceuta FC Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored were 1.5, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters. However, both teams have a 50% rate for over 2.5 goals in recent matches, suggesting this fixture could see more open play and goal opportunities due to AD Ceuta FC's defensive issues.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Burgos v AD Ceuta FC prediction

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