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Burnley crestBurnley
v
Aston Villa crestAston Villa

Premier League | Sun 10 May, 14:00

Burnley v Aston Villa Stats

Data last updated: Sat 20 Jun 2026, 18:49 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Burnley face Aston Villa in Premier League on Sun 10 May, 14:00. Aston Villa are winless in their last five away league games. Individual quality makes Villa heavy favourites, but their five-match winless away run provides a glimmer of hope for Burnley.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams To Score

  • At 3/4, Both Teams To Score implies roughly 57%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 73%.
  • This market requires both teams to score at least one goal each during the 90 minutes.
  • Burnley show a 60% BTTS rate and Aston Villa show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Burnley average 0.6 goals scored and Aston Villa average 1.6, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 73% for Both Teams To Score sits against roughly 57% implied by the current price. Burnley show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Aston Villa show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. This market requires both teams to score at least one goal each during the 90 minutes.

Model chance vs price73% model chance against roughly 57% implied
Strong positive
Burnley show a 60% BTTS rate and Aston Villa show.Visible data support
Positive
Burnley average 0.6 goals scored and Aston Villa average 1.6.Visible data support
Positive
This market requires both teams to score at least.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because this market requires both teams to score at least one goal each during the 90 minutes. Burnley show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Aston Villa show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Burnley’s attack carries a small but genuine threat

Main risk

Burnley’s attack carries a small but genuine threat.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score evidence

This market requires both teams to score at least one goal each during the 90 minutes.

Burnley show a 60% BTTS rate and Aston Villa show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Burnley average 0.6 goals scored and Aston Villa average 1.6, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Burnley4.2
Avg corners for
Aston Villa4.6
Burnley9.8
Avg total corners
Aston Villa9.6
Burnley1.8
Avg yellow cards
Aston Villa1.4
Burnley8.2
Avg shots
Aston Villa13
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Premier League fixtures and predictionsBurnley v Aston Villa predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Burnley0.6
Avg goals scored
Aston Villa1.6
Burnley2.6
Avg goals conceded
Aston Villa1.4
Burnley60%
BTTS rate
Aston Villa60%
Burnley60%
Over 2.5 goals
Aston Villa40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 56% · edge +17.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 56% · edge +17.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Aston Villa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Aston Villa to WinBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Burnley to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
5
Check odds @ 5
Burnley Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Burnley

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 7L
01 May 2026A Leeds1-3
22 Apr 2026H Manchester City0-1
19 Apr 2026A Nottingham Forest1-4
11 Apr 2026H Brighton0-2
21 Mar 2026A Fulham1-3

Aston Villa

LLWDW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
03 May 2026H Tottenham1-2
25 Apr 2026A Fulham0-1
19 Apr 2026H Sunderland4-3
12 Apr 2026A Nottingham Forest1-1
22 Mar 2026H West Ham2-0
Best odds for this sectionAston Villa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 49% · edge +27.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Aston Villa to WinBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.28
Check odds @ 2.28
Burnley to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
5
Check odds @ 5
Burnley Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Burnley wins
3Draws
5Aston Villa wins
05 Oct 2025Aston Villa v Burnley2-1
30 Dec 2023Aston Villa v Burnley3-2
27 Aug 2023Burnley v Aston Villa1-3
19 May 2022Aston Villa v Burnley1-1
07 May 2022Burnley v Aston Villa1-3
27 Jan 2021Burnley v Aston Villa3-2
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 56% · edge +17.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Aston Villa to WinBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Burnley to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
5
Check odds @ 5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Premier League

Burnley38
Played
Aston Villa38
Burnley1
Avg goals for
Aston Villa1.5
Burnley2
Avg goals against
Aston Villa1.3
Burnley4
Clean sheets
Aston Villa9
Best odds for this sectionAston Villa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 49% · edge +27.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Aston Villa to WinBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Burnley to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
5
Check odds @ 5
Burnley Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Season data supports Aston Villa Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Aston Villa6538198117
19Burnley223841024-37
Burnley sit in position 19, while Aston Villa sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Both Teams To Score assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Burnley Over 2.5
40%Aston Villa Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Burnley sit at 60% and Aston Villa sit at 40% with the H2H average at 3.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Burnley v Aston Villa prediction

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