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Burnleyv
Aston VillaPremier League | Sun 10 May, 14:00
Burnley v Aston Villa Stats
BT4Y best bet
Both Teams to Score
- At 1.8, Both Teams to Score is priced at roughly 56% implied probability. Our model has it closer to 73%, so the current line is showing a +17.7-point value edge.
- Burnley have scored in 60% of the recent sample and Aston Villa have scored in 80%, with BTTS rates of 60% and 60%.
- The goals data supports the Both Teams to Score angle: Burnley have taken 0 wins from their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 2.6 conceded.
- The goals data supports the Both Teams to Score angle: Aston Villa have taken 2 wins from their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 60% of that sample.
- If the bookmaker is still close to 1.8, this is the market to check first because the data and the price are both pointing in the same direction.
Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
Best odds for this sectionAway Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 49% · edge +27.2 pts
2.05
Bet HERE @ 2.05Load more odds for this section
Key match trends
A quick read of the strongest visible indicators.
60%Burnley Over 2.5
40%Aston Villa Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
Recent form
Results and scoring shape from recent games.
Burnley
LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 recordLast 101W 2D 7L
01 May 2026A Leeds1-3
22 Apr 2026H Manchester City0-1
19 Apr 2026A Nottingham Forest1-4
11 Apr 2026H Brighton0-2
21 Mar 2026A Fulham1-3
Aston Villa
LLWDW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 recordLast 103W 2D 5L
03 May 2026H Tottenham1-2
25 Apr 2026A Fulham0-1
19 Apr 2026H Sunderland4-3
12 Apr 2026A Nottingham Forest1-1
22 Mar 2026H West Ham2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 49% · edge +27.2 pts
2.05
Bet HERE @ 2.05Load more odds for this section
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Goal-market data and related prices.
Burnley0.6
Avg goals scoredAston Villa1.6
Burnley2.6
Avg goals concededAston Villa1.4
Burnley60%
BTTS rateAston Villa60%
Burnley60%
Over 2.5 goalsAston Villa40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 56% · edge +17.7 pts
1.8
Bet HERE @ 1.8Load more odds for this section
Head-to-head
Recent meetings and related markets.
2Burnley wins
3Draws
5Aston Villa wins
05 Oct 2025Aston Villa v Burnley2-1
30 Dec 2023Aston Villa v Burnley3-2
27 Aug 2023Burnley v Aston Villa1-3
19 May 2022Aston Villa v Burnley1-1
07 May 2022Burnley v Aston Villa1-3
27 Jan 2021Burnley v Aston Villa3-2
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 56% · edge +17.7 pts
1.8
Bet HERE @ 1.8Load more odds for this section
Corners, cards and shots
Detailed stat markets where available.
Burnley4.2
Avg corners forAston Villa4.6
Burnley9.8
Avg total cornersAston Villa9.6
Burnley1.8
Avg yellow cardsAston Villa1.4
Burnley8.2
Avg shotsAston Villa13
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.4 pts
1.8
Bet HERE @ 1.8Load more odds for this section
Player stats
Player props and player-level signals.
Load more player angles
Z. FlemmingBurnley · Midfielder
Goal threat67/100
Shots /901.97
SOT /901.1
D. MalenAston Villa · Attacker
Goal threat63/100
Shots /902.78
SOT /901.19
O. WatkinsAston Villa · Attacker
Goal threat60/100
Shots /901.74
SOT /901.05
T. AbrahamAston Villa · Attacker
Goal threat45/100
Shots /901.84
SOT /900.92
H. MejbriBurnley · Midfielder
Goal threat24/100
Shots /900.69
SOT /900.34
A. BarnesBurnley · Attacker
Goal threat1/100
Shots /900
SOT /900
J. LaurentBurnley · Midfielder
Goal threat18/100
Shots /900.51
SOT /900.21
Season team stats
Premier League
Burnley35
PlayedAston Villa35
Burnley1
Avg goals forAston Villa1.4
Burnley2
Avg goals againstAston Villa1.3
Burnley4
Clean sheetsAston Villa9
Best odds for this sectionAway Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 49% · edge +27.2 pts
2.05
Bet HERE @ 2.05Load more odds for this section
League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aston Villa | 58 | 35 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 4 |
| 19 | Burnley | 20 | 35 | 4 | 8 | 23 | -36 |
Next step
Betting context
Use the best-bet case above as the starting point, then check the live odds and the full prediction before staking.
