Football Stats Hub

Bournemouth crestBournemouth
v
Sunderland crestSunderland

Premier League | Sun 18 Oct, 14:00

Bournemouth v Sunderland Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 22:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bournemouth host Sunderland in a Premier League clash where the home side's recent form and attacking style set the tone. Bournemouth remain unbeaten in their last three home games, showcasing a high shot volume and a high-tempo counter-pressing approach under Andoni Iraola. Sunderland arrive on an eight-match winless away streak, struggling to convert chances and facing pressure to respond after a recent defeat. The tactical battle will focus on Bournemouth's territorial control and Sunderland's compact defensive structure, with the home side favored to leverage their offensive edge at the Vitality Stadium.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Bournemouth to Win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 48%, above the 39% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Bournemouth unbeaten in last 3 home league matches.
  • Bournemouth average 13.4 shots per game, outshooting Sunderland's 9.8.
  • Sunderland winless in 8 consecutive away league games.
  • Bournemouth scored 9 goals in last 6 matches; Sunderland scored 6.
Price warning

Bournemouth to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 48% while the model sits nearer 39% (-8.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +14.5 pts edge at 1.7.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model recognizes Bournemouth's strong home form and superior shot volume as key factors for victory, despite the current price being short with a negative . Bournemouth's average of 13.4 shots per game and recent unbeaten home streak support their winning chances. Sunderland's prolonged away struggles and lower goal output further tilt the balance. However, the price implies a 57.9% chance, while the model estimates only 39.3%, indicating a price-sensitive selection. Reduced staking or waiting for drift is advised unless team news or line-ups improve the outlook.

Bournemouth Home FormUnbeaten last 3 home matches
Strong positive
Shot VolumeBournemouth 13.4 vs Sunderland 9.8 per game
Strong positive
Sunderland Away Form8-match winless streak
Negative
Model Chance vs Market39.3% model chance vs 47.6% implied (-8.3 pts)
Negative
Goal ScoringBournemouth 9 goals last 6 games, Sunderland 6
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bournemouth's home control and attacking intent make them the logical choice to secure victory against a Sunderland side struggling on the road. Their ability to generate high shot volumes and maintain possession under Iraola's system contrasts with Sunderland's difficulties in away fixtures, supporting a home win prediction.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Bournemouth's relentless shot pressure and home unbeaten streak highlight their capacity to control this match, while Sunderland's away woes and finishing issues limit their threat. This tactical and statistical gap favors the hosts to claim all three points.”

Key Data Signals

Bournemouth to Win evidence

Bournemouth unbeaten in last 3 home league matches.

Bournemouth average 13.4 shots per game, outshooting Sunderland's 9.8.

Sunderland winless in 8 consecutive away league games.

Bournemouth scored 9 goals in last 6 matches; Sunderland scored 6.

What To Watch In The Data

Bournemouth to Win notes

  • Over the last six meetings, the average goals per game is 2.5, suggesting a moderately open game.
  • Bournemouth's higher tempo and shot volume combined with Sunderland's defensive compactness and aerial threat create a scenario where goals are possible but not guaranteed, aligning with an over 2.5 goals trend that is plausible but not certain.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bournemouth1.2
Avg goals scored
Sunderland1
Bournemouth2.2
Avg goals conceded
Sunderland2
Bournemouth80%
BTTS rate
Sunderland40%
Bournemouth60%
Over 2.5 goals
Sunderland20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 59% · edge +14.5 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 30%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 31%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Goal trends suggest a moderate scoring game with Bournemouth averaging 1.5 goals recently and Sunderland 1.0. Sunderland's struggles in finishing and Bournemouth's defensive lapses on set pieces imply a cautious BTTS No and under 3.5 goals scenario, as Sunderland may find it difficult to score multiple times despite aerial strengths.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBournemouth to WinBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 48% · edge -8.3 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Bournemouth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 39.3% for Bournemouth to Win sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (-8.3 pts). Sunderland have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Bournemouth. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Premier League fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Bournemouth v Sunderlandcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bournemouth

LLDDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 3L
10 Oct 2026A Chelsea1-5
20 Sep 2026H Liverpool0-1
12 Sep 2026H Brentford2-2
05 Sep 2026A Newcastle2-2
29 Aug 2026H Everton1-1

Sunderland

LLLDW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 4L
10 Oct 2026H Brighton0-2
20 Sep 2026A Manchester City3-5
12 Sep 2026H Arsenal0-2
05 Sep 2026A Brentford1-1
30 Aug 2026H Fulham1-0
Market aligned with main pickBournemouth to WinBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 48% · edge -8.3 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Bournemouth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Bournemouth's recent form at home is strong, with three unbeaten matches and a goal scoring rate of 1.2 per game, contrasting with Sunderland's four points from recent matches but ongoing away difficulties. This form disparity underlines Bournemouth's advantage in momentum and for the fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Bournemouth Over 2.5
20%Sunderland Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last six meetings, the average goals per game is 2.5, suggesting a moderately open game. Bournemouth's higher tempo and shot volume combined with Sunderland's defensive compactness and aerial threat create a scenario where goals are possible but not guaranteed, aligning with an over 2.5 goals trend that is plausible but not certain.

Loading deeper match data…