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Botafogo SP crestBotafogo SP
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Criciuma crestCriciuma

Serie B | Thu 20 Aug, 01:30

Botafogo SP v Criciuma Stats

Data last updated: Wed 19 Aug 2026, 07:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Botafogo SP hosts Criciuma in a Serie B clash where both teams have collected 10 points in recent form, but Criciuma leads the standings with 43 points compared to Botafogo SP's 30. Botafogo SP's attack has been more productive, averaging 1.4 goals per game versus Criciuma's 0.8, while defensively Criciuma boasts a tighter record. The match presents a tactical battle with Botafogo SP seeking to leverage home advantage and offensive momentum against the league leaders, making this an intriguing contest with potential for a narrow home victory.

BT4Y best bet

Botafogo SP to Win

  • Botafogo SP has a model-implied 45.5% chance to win, priced at 2.7 , offering positive value.
  • Recent form shows Botafogo SP scoring 1.4 goals per game with a 40% BTTS rate, while Criciuma scores less and has no BTTS in recent matches.
  • Criciuma ranks first in the league but concedes fewer goals (0.4 per game) compared to Botafogo SP (0.8), indicating a solid defense.
  • Player stats highlight Botafogo SP's Hygor as a key attacking threat with 5 goals and 0.92 shots on target per 90 minutes.
  • Criciuma's Diego Gonçalves leads their attack with 1.55 shots on target per 90 but has yet to score, suggesting finishing issues.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Botafogo SP to win due to their stronger recent attacking output and home advantage despite Criciuma's top-table position and defensive solidity. Botafogo SP's higher goal-scoring rate and positive value at 2.7 create an appealing betting angle. The model is moderate at 55%, reflecting some uncertainty given Criciuma's defensive resilience and league leadership. No data limitations affect this analysis, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Model Win Probability45.5%
Positive
Implied Market Chance37%
Positive
Value Edge8.5%
Strong positive
Recent Goals Scored by Botafogo SP1.4 per game
Positive
Criciuma Defensive Record0.4 goals conceded per game
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Botafogo SP's home attacking edge and positive value pricing make them a solid pick to win against the league leaders Criciuma. Their recent goal-scoring form contrasts with Criciuma's lower offensive output, providing a tactical and statistical basis for backing the home side. This match could hinge on Botafogo SP's ability to break down a disciplined defense.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Botafogo SP to Win

“Botafogo SP's offensive momentum and home advantage position them well to challenge Criciuma's defensive strength. Their ability to convert chances, led by Hygor, will be crucial in a tight contest.”

Key Data Signals

Botafogo SP to Win evidence

Botafogo SP has a model-implied 45.5% chance to win, priced at 2.7 , offering positive value.

Recent form shows Botafogo SP scoring 1.4 goals per game with a 40% BTTS rate, while Criciuma scores less and has no BTTS in recent matches.

Criciuma ranks first in the league but concedes fewer goals (0.4 per game) compared to Botafogo SP (0.8), indicating a solid defense.

Player stats highlight Botafogo SP's Hygor as a key attacking threat with 5 goals and 0.92 shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Botafogo SP to Win notes

  • In the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 1.78, suggesting generally low-scoring encounters.
  • Botafogo SP's 40% rate of over 2.5 goals contrasts with Criciuma's 0%, indicating Botafogo SP's matches tend to be more open.
  • This trend suggests the potential for a moderate goal count, aligning with a narrow home win.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Botafogo SP1.4
Avg goals scored
Criciuma0.8
Botafogo SP0.8
Avg goals conceded
Criciuma0.4
Botafogo SP40%
BTTS rate
Criciuma0%
Botafogo SP40%
Over 2.5 goals
Criciuma0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +4.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 40%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Recent form data shows Botafogo SP with a 40% rate of both teams scoring, while Criciuma has none, indicating a tendency for low-scoring matches involving Criciuma. The goal averages and BTTS rates suggest a controlled scoring environment, favoring a match where Botafogo SP may edge a narrow win without a high-scoring outcome.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBotafogo SP to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 43% · edge +2.9 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
Botafogo SP Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 40%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The of 2.7 for Botafogo SP to win reflect a market-implied chance of 37%, which is below the model's 45.5% probability, indicating positive value. This pricing suggests the market underestimates Botafogo SP's home advantage and attacking form, making the bet attractive without requiring caution on price sensitivity.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Botafogo SP5.6
Avg corners for
Criciuma6.75
Botafogo SP15.2
Avg total corners
Criciuma10.75
Botafogo SP2
Avg yellow cards
Criciuma3.25
Botafogo SP11.6
Avg shots
Criciuma12
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 83% · edge -8.3 pts
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Criciuma averages more corners (7) and shots (13.67) than Botafogo SP, but Botafogo SP maintains a solid defensive discipline with fewer yellow cards (2 vs 3.33). This suggests Criciuma may press more offensively, but Botafogo SP's defensive organization and set-piece threat could balance the game dynamics.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Botafogo SP

WWLWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
14 Aug 2026A São Bernardo1-0
08 Aug 2026H America Mineiro2-1
29 Jul 2026A Fortaleza EC0-1
24 Jul 2026H Juventude4-2
18 Jul 2026A Londrina0-0

Criciuma

WLDWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 2D 1L
15 Aug 2026H Goias1-0
09 Aug 2026A Athletic Club0-2
26 Jul 2026H Nautico Recife0-0
21 Jul 2026A Novorizontino1-0
18 Jul 2026H Vila Nova2-0
Market aligned with main pickBotafogo SP to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 43% · edge +2.9 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Botafogo SP Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Both teams have earned 10 points recently, but Botafogo SP's higher goals per game (1.4) compared to Criciuma's 0.8 suggests better offensive form. Criciuma's recent matches have been more defensive with no BTTS occurrences, indicating a cautious approach. Botafogo SP's form supports a home win scenario with more attacking impetus.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Botafogo SP wins
1Draws
5Criciuma wins
11 Apr 2026Criciuma v Botafogo SP1-0
16 Nov 2025Criciuma v Botafogo SP2-0
24 Jul 2025Botafogo SP v Criciuma0-2
18 Nov 2023Criciuma v Botafogo SP3-0
18 Jul 2023Botafogo SP v Criciuma1-0
11 Sep 2021Criciuma v Botafogo SP0-0
Market aligned with main pickBotafogo SP to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 43% · edge +2.9 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 40%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The nine previous meetings between Botafogo SP and Criciuma have averaged 1.78 goals per game, indicating tight contests. While the sample size is moderate, the low goal average suggests both teams have historically been cautious, which supports expectations of a competitive match with limited scoring opportunities favoring a close Botafogo SP win.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie B

Botafogo SP23
Played
Criciuma23
Botafogo SP1.2
Avg goals for
Criciuma1.1
Botafogo SP1
Avg goals against
Criciuma0.7
Botafogo SP5
Clean sheets
Criciuma11
Market aligned with main pickBotafogo SP to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 43% · edge +2.9 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
Botafogo SP Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over the season, Botafogo SP has a more potent attack averaging 1.4 goals per game and concedes 0.8, showing balanced performance. Criciuma leads the league with a strong defense conceding only 0.4 goals per game but scores less. This contrast underlines Botafogo SP's potential to break down defenses and secure a win despite Criciuma's defensive strength.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Criciuma4423128310
14Botafogo SP31238785
Criciuma sits top of the Serie B table with 43 points, reflecting consistent performance and defensive solidity. Botafogo SP is mid-table with 30 points, indicating a gap in overall season success. However, home advantage and recent attacking form give Botafogo SP a tactical edge in this fixture despite the standings disparity.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Botafogo SP Over 2.5
0%Criciuma Over 2.5
1.78H2H avg goals
In the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 1.78, suggesting generally low-scoring encounters. Botafogo SP's 40% rate of over 2.5 goals contrasts with Criciuma's 0%, indicating Botafogo SP's matches tend to be more open. This trend suggests the potential for a moderate goal count, aligning with a narrow home win.

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