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Novorizontino crestNovorizontino
v
America Mineiro crestAmerica Mineiro

Serie B | Fri 21 Aug, 00:30

Novorizontino v America Mineiro Stats

Data last updated: Thu 20 Aug 2026, 09:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B fixture features Novorizontino hosting America Mineiro, with both teams seeking to improve their league standing. Novorizontino sits comfortably in 7th place with 34 points, while America Mineiro struggles near the relegation zone in 19th with 11 points. Recent form shows both sides earning 4 points in their last matches, but America Mineiro concedes more goals on average, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities. The tactical battle will likely focus on Novorizontino's home advantage and America Mineiro's resilience, setting up a contest where avoiding defeat is crucial for the visitors.

BT4Y match pick

America Mineiro or Draw

  • America Mineiro or Draw offers strong value with a 67.7% versus 43.5% implied .
  • America Mineiro concedes 1.6 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty but also potential for controlled matches.
  • Novorizontino averages 7.4 corners per game, showing territorial pressure but America Mineiro's resilience may limit scoring.
  • Recent form is balanced with both teams earning 4 points recently, suggesting a tight contest likely to avoid a home win.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors America Mineiro or Draw with a 67.7% chance, highlighting value in the double chance market priced at 2.3 . Despite America Mineiro's defensive struggles, their ability to avoid defeat is supported by Novorizontino's modest scoring rate and low over 2.5 goals frequency. The visitors' resilience and tactical caution in away matches underpin this selection. No data limitations affect , and the price offers a positive edge without requiring caution.

Model Probability67.7% chance for America Mineiro or Draw
Strong positive
Implied Odds43.5% chance from 2.3 odds
Strong positive
Recent Goals ConcededAmerica Mineiro concedes 1.6 goals per game
Neutral
Novorizontino Scoring Rate0.8 goals per game, low scoring
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

America Mineiro or Draw is a tactically sensible pick given the visitors' need to avoid defeat and Novorizontino's limited scoring threat. The data shows America Mineiro's defensive vulnerabilities but also their ability to grind out results, making the double chance a prudent choice supported by form and season stats.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and data-driven market insight

“America Mineiro's defensive resilience combined with Novorizontino's modest attacking output makes the double chance a smart market to exploit value in this Serie B clash.”

Key Data Signals

America Mineiro or Draw evidence

America Mineiro or Draw offers strong value with a 67.7% versus 43.5% implied .

America Mineiro concedes 1.6 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty but also potential for controlled matches.

Novorizontino averages 7.4 corners per game, showing territorial pressure but America Mineiro's resilience may limit scoring.

Recent form is balanced with both teams earning 4 points recently, suggesting a tight contest likely to avoid a home win.

What To Watch In The Data

America Mineiro or Draw notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.83, suggesting moderate scoring.
  • Novorizontino's low over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with America Mineiro's higher rate, indicating a match that could see controlled tempo with occasional bursts of attacking intent, aligning with a moderate goals expectation.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Novorizontino0.8
Avg goals scored
America Mineiro1
Novorizontino0.8
Avg goals conceded
America Mineiro1.6
Novorizontino20%
BTTS rate
America Mineiro80%
Novorizontino20%
Over 2.5 goals
America Mineiro60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 41%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams to score is unlikely given Novorizontino's low BTTS rate of 20% and America Mineiro's defensive approach despite conceding 1.6 goals per game. The low scoring averages and tactical caution suggest a controlled goals environment favoring BTTS No.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
America Mineiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
America Mineiro to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Novorizontino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Novorizontino Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
The America Mineiro or Draw market is priced attractively at 2.3, reflecting a 43.5% implied chance against a model probability of 67.7%, indicating strong value. This pricing suggests bettors can capitalize on America Mineiro's ability to avoid defeat despite their low league position, making this a price-sensitive but positive selection.

Continue the research

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Novorizontino7.4
Avg corners for
America Mineiro4.8
Novorizontino14.2
Avg total corners
America Mineiro10
Novorizontino1.8
Avg yellow cards
America Mineiro2.6
Novorizontino12.8
Avg shots
America Mineiro10.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Novorizontino averages 7.4 corners per game, indicating territorial pressure, while America Mineiro averages fewer corners but compensates with more fouls and yellow cards (2.6 per game), reflecting a physical defensive style. Shot data shows Novorizontino creates more chances but America Mineiro's defensive fouling could disrupt rhythm.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Novorizontino

DLWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
16 Aug 2026A CRB0-0
09 Aug 2026H Juventude0-1
26 Jul 2026A Londrina4-1
21 Jul 2026H Criciuma0-1
18 Jul 2026A Fortaleza EC0-1

America Mineiro

LLWLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
16 Aug 2026H Athletic Club1-3
08 Aug 2026A Botafogo SP1-2
26 Jul 2026H Goias1-0
21 Jul 2026A Avai1-2
17 Jul 2026H Ceara1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
America Mineiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
America Mineiro to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Novorizontino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Novorizontino Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Recent form data shows both teams earning 4 points in their last matches, with Novorizontino scoring 0.8 goals per game and America Mineiro 1 goal per game. America Mineiro concedes more goals (1.6) but maintains a higher BTTS rate (80%), suggesting a more open approach compared to Novorizontino's defensive solidity and low BTTS rate (20%).
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Novorizontino wins
3Draws
1America Mineiro wins
12 Apr 2026America Mineiro v Novorizontino0-3
26 Mar 2026Novorizontino v America Mineiro1-1
03 Nov 2025America Mineiro v Novorizontino2-2
12 Jul 2025Novorizontino v America Mineiro3-1
17 Aug 2024Novorizontino v America Mineiro1-1
27 Apr 2024America Mineiro v Novorizontino2-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
America Mineiro to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Novorizontino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The six previous meetings average 2.83 goals per game, showing a moderate scoring trend. However, the sample is limited and does not strongly favor either side, so current form and tactical setups carry more weight in predicting the outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie B

Novorizontino22
Played
America Mineiro22
Novorizontino1.5
Avg goals for
America Mineiro0.7
Novorizontino0.9
Avg goals against
America Mineiro1.6
Novorizontino8
Clean sheets
America Mineiro3
Best odds for this sectionAmerica Mineiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Load more odds for this section
America Mineiro to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Novorizontino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Novorizontino Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Season-long stats reveal Novorizontino's solid defense conceding 0.8 goals per game and a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20%, indicating tight matches. America Mineiro's defense is more porous with 1.6 goals conceded per game and a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, reflecting vulnerability but also potential for controlled scoring games.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Novorizontino342297612
19America Mineiro11222515-20
The standings show Novorizontino comfortably placed 7th with 34 points, while America Mineiro struggles in 19th with 11 points. This gap highlights the visitors' motivation to secure points to avoid relegation, supporting a cautious approach likely to prioritize avoiding defeat over risky attacking play.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Novorizontino Over 2.5
60%America Mineiro Over 2.5
2.83H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.83, suggesting moderate scoring. Novorizontino's low over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with America Mineiro's higher rate, indicating a match that could see controlled tempo with occasional bursts of attacking intent, aligning with a moderate goals expectation.

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