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Bohemians crestBohemians
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Derry City crestDerry City

Premier Division | Fri 21 Aug, 19:45

Bohemians v Derry City Stats

Data last updated: Thu 20 Aug 2026, 09:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Premier Division clash features Bohemians arriving in strong form, having won four of their last five league matches including three consecutive away victories. They sit second in the table with solid attacking output and momentum. Derry City, in contrast, are struggling with just five points from their last seven games and face pressure to avoid slipping further down the standings. Despite Derry's home advantage and recent resilience against Bohemians, their lack of cutting edge and Bohemians' attacking variety set the stage for a tense, low-scoring encounter with high stakes for both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Bohemians Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Bohemians have won 4 of their last 5 league games, including 3 straight away wins.
  • Derry City have earned only 5 points in their last 7 matches, the lowest in the division.
  • Bohemians average 1.9 goals per game recently but concede 1.7, indicating attacking strength and defensive vulnerability.
  • Derry City score 1.0 goal per game and have a strong home record against Bohemians, adding risk to the bet.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Bohemians Win & Under 2.5 Goals offers strong value at 8/1 , with the model assigning a 32.9% chance based on recent form and attacking metrics. Bohemians' high shot volume and goal-scoring rate contrast with Derry City's struggles to convert possession into goals. The under 2.5 goals aspect aligns with both teams' recent defensive records and tactical setups favoring controlled, low-scoring play. No data limitations affect , and the price reflects a clear value opportunity given the football context.

Model Chance32.9%
Strong positive
Implied Odds Chance11.1%
Strong positive
Recent FormBohemians strong, Derry weak
Strong positive
Scoring TrendsBohemians 1.9, Derry 1.0 goals per game
Positive
Defensive VulnerabilityBohemians concede 1.7 goals per game
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bohemians' recent surge in form and attacking diversity make them the likely winners in this fixture. Their ability to generate multiple scoring threats contrasts with Derry City's lack of clinical finishing despite possession control. This combination supports a Bohemians win in a match expected to stay under 2.5 goals.

Main risk

Bohemians are highly productive offensively, averaging 1.9 goals per match recently, but remain vulnerable defensively after conceding 1.7 goals per game over their last ten fixtures.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome and tactical balance

“Bohemians' attacking depth and momentum give them the edge, but Derry's home resilience and tactical discipline could keep the scoreline tight in this high-stakes clash.”

Key Data Signals

Bohemians Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Bohemians have won 4 of their last 5 league games, including 3 straight away wins.

Derry City have earned only 5 points in their last 7 matches, the lowest in the division.

Bohemians average 1.9 goals per game recently but concede 1.7, indicating attacking strength and defensive vulnerability.

Derry City score 1.0 goal per game and have a strong home record against Bohemians, adding risk to the bet.

What To Watch In The Data

Bohemians Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Analysis of the last ten head-to-head meetings shows an average of 2.6 goals per game, with a balanced record between the teams.
  • Recent trends suggest matches often stay under 3 goals, aligning with the tactical setups favoring possession control and defensive solidity.
  • This trend supports the under 2.5 goals aspect of the bet, indicating a measured tempo and limited scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bohemians1.8
Avg goals scored
Derry City1.6
Bohemians0.8
Avg goals conceded
Derry City1.2
Bohemians40%
BTTS rate
Derry City60%
Bohemians40%
Over 2.5 goals
Derry City20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams' recent scoring and defensive records suggest a low-scoring affair. Bohemians average 1.9 goals but concede 1.7, while Derry score 1.0 and concede 1.2 per game. Derry's higher BTTS rate contrasts with Bohemians' more controlled approach, supporting an under 3.5 goals and BTTS No scenario reflecting tactical caution and defensive organization.

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Useful next reads

Bohemians v Derry City predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bohemians

LDWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
09 Aug 2026A Waterford1-3
02 Aug 2026H Galway United1-1
03 Jul 2026A Drogheda United2-0
26 Jun 2026H St Patrick's Athl.2-0
22 Jun 2026A Shelbourne3-0

Derry City

WDLWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
07 Aug 2026H Sligo Rovers2-0
02 Aug 2026A St Patrick's Athl.1-1
03 Jul 2026H Waterford2-4
26 Jun 2026H Drogheda United2-0
22 Jun 2026A Shamrock Rovers1-1
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 81% vs implied 78% · edge +3.1 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
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Bohemians to WinBetUK guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
Bohemians Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Bohemians have demonstrated strong momentum with four wins in five matches, including a three-game away winning streak, reflecting growing and attacking efficiency. Derry City's form is poor, with only five points from seven games, highlighting struggles to convert possession into results. This form gap underpins the selection of Bohemians to win while maintaining a cautious expectation on goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Bohemians4427128711
6Derry City332771283
Bohemians' position near the top of the table contrasts with Derry City's mid-table status, reflecting the pressure on Derry to avoid slipping further. The league context adds urgency for Derry but also highlights Bohemians' consistency and ambition. This dynamic supports a Bohemians win while acknowledging Derry's motivation to resist defeat at home.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBohemians to WinBetUK guide price · Model 55% vs implied 50% · edge +4.9 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Bohemians Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The 8/1 price on Bohemians Win & Under 2.5 Goals represents significant value compared to the model's 32.9% chance. This discrepancy highlights the market's underestimation of Bohemians' form and attacking potency combined with a realistic expectation of a low-scoring game. The price is attractive and well supported by recent data, making it a compelling selection without price sensitivity concerns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Bohemians5.8
Avg corners for
Derry City6
Bohemians10.2
Avg total corners
Derry City10.6
Bohemians2
Avg yellow cards
Derry City2.4
Bohemians14.4
Avg shots
Derry City15.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Shot and corner data show both teams generate moderate attacking pressure, with Bohemians averaging 14.4 shots and 5.8 corners per game, and Derry City slightly higher at 15.2 shots and 6 corners. Discipline is balanced, with Derry averaging 2.4 yellow cards to Bohemians' 2.0, indicating a competitive but not overly aggressive match environment conducive to controlled play.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Bohemians wins
3Draws
5Derry City wins
12 Jun 2026Derry City v Bohemians4-1
01 May 2026Bohemians v Derry City1-1
20 Feb 2026Derry City v Bohemians0-1
12 Sep 2025Bohemians v Derry City3-4
25 Jul 2025Derry City v Bohemians1-1
30 May 2025Bohemians v Derry City1-0
Market aligned with main pickBohemians to WinBetUK guide price · Model 55% vs implied 50% · edge +4.9 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The last ten meetings between these teams have been competitive, with Bohemians winning three, Derry four, and three draws. The average goals per match is 2.6, indicating moderately open games but no control. Derry's strong home record against Bohemians adds a layer of complexity, suggesting the match could be tightly contested despite Bohemians' current form.
Season team stats

Premier Division

Bohemians27
Played
Derry City27
Bohemians1.6
Avg goals for
Derry City1.3
Bohemians1.1
Avg goals against
Derry City1.2
Bohemians10
Clean sheets
Derry City7
Market aligned with main pickBohemians to WinBetUK guide price · Model 55% vs implied 50% · edge +4.9 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Bohemians Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Over the season, Bohemians rank third with 44 points, scoring 31 and conceding 21 goals, showing a positive goal difference and balanced attack-defense profile. Derry City sit sixth with 33 points, scoring 22 and conceding 23, indicating competitive but inconsistent performances. These season-long stats reinforce Bohemians' superiority and the likelihood of a tight, low-scoring match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Bohemians Over 2.5
20%Derry City Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Analysis of the last ten head-to-head meetings shows an average of 2.6 goals per game, with a balanced record between the teams. Recent trends suggest matches often stay under 3 goals, aligning with the tactical setups favoring possession control and defensive solidity. This trend supports the under 2.5 goals aspect of the bet, indicating a measured tempo and limited scoring opportunities.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Bohemians v Derry City prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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