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Blackpool crestBlackpool
v
Crewe crestCrewe

EFL Trophy | Tue 06 Oct, 19:00

Blackpool v Crewe Stats

Data last updated: Mon 05 Oct 2026, 09:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This EFL Trophy clash between Blackpool and Crewe promises an open contest with both sides showing attacking intent in recent matches. Blackpool have scored 2 goals and conceded 3 in their latest game, while Crewe netted 4 and conceded just once, highlighting a contrast in defensive solidity. Both teams have a 100% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season, suggesting a high-scoring encounter. The tactical setup likely favors offensive play, with Crewe's midfield and forward lines particularly potent. The fixture's knockout nature adds urgency, potentially increasing tempo and goal opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both Blackpool and Crewe have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches.
  • Crewe scored 4 goals and conceded only 1 in their last outing, showing attacking strength and some defensive vulnerability.
  • Blackpool average 11 shots per game with 4 on target, Crewe average 14 shots with 7 on target, indicating offensive pressure from both sides.
  • The last 8 head-to-head matches average 2.75 goals, supporting a goal-rich game environment.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 58% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, well above the implied market chance of 44.4%, indicating clear value. Both teams have consistently high scoring and conceding rates, with Blackpool and Crewe each having 100% Over 2.5 Goals matches recently. Crewe's attacking trio, including J. Thibaut, contribute significant shot volume and goal threat, while Blackpool's T. Yates also pose scoring risks. This offensive firepower combined with defensive openness supports a high-goal outcome. No data limitations reduce in this assessment.

Model Chance58% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+13.6 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Goals Rate100% for both teams
Strong positive
Shot VolumeBlackpool 11 shots/game, Crewe 14 shots/game
Positive
Key Players' Goal ThreatLankester and Thibaut with high shots and goals
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both Blackpool and Crewe have shown strong offensive output recently. Crewe's midfield creativity and Blackpool's shot volume suggest multiple goal opportunities. The data supports a high-scoring match, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice for this EFL Trophy fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking styles and player roles

“This fixture features two teams with aggressive attacking styles and high shot volumes, setting the stage for a lively, goal-filled encounter. The offensive roles of Lankester and Thibaut for Crewe, combined with Blackpool's consistent shooting, underline the potential for multiple goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both Blackpool and Crewe have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches.

Crewe scored 4 goals and conceded only 1 in their last outing, showing attacking strength and some defensive vulnerability.

Blackpool average 11 shots per game with 4 on target, Crewe average 14 shots with 7 on target, indicating offensive pressure from both sides.

The last 8 head-to-head matches average 2.75 goals, supporting a goal-rich game environment.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.75, indicating a history of moderately high-scoring games.
  • Recent form and attacking tendencies suggest this fixture could surpass that average, with tempo and offensive quality driving an Over 2.5 Goals trend continuing into this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Blackpool2
Avg goals scored
Crewe4
Blackpool3
Avg goals conceded
Crewe1
Blackpool100%
BTTS rate
Crewe100%
Blackpool100%
Over 2.5 goals
Crewe100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 44% · edge +13.6 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have a perfect 100% Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS rate in recent matches, indicating consistent goal-scoring and conceding patterns. Crewe's recent 4-1 scoreline and Blackpool's 2-3 result highlight open games where both sides find the net, supporting expectations of multiple goals and BTTS.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Crewe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Crewe to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Blackpool Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Blackpool to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+13.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Blackpool and 100% for Crewe, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Blackpool

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
22 Sep 2026A Wigan2-3

Crewe

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
22 Sep 2026H Aston Villa U214-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 48% · edge +3.9 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Crewe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Crewe to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Blackpool Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Blackpool to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
DrawBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Recent form data shows both teams scoring and conceding freely, with Blackpool netting 2 and conceding 3, and Crewe scoring 4 while conceding 1 in their latest matches. Both teams have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, confirming a trend of high-scoring games that supports the Over 3.5 Goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Blackpool Over 2.5
100%Crewe Over 2.5
2.75H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.75, indicating a history of moderately high-scoring games. Recent form and attacking tendencies suggest this fixture could surpass that average, with tempo and offensive quality driving an Over 2.5 Goals trend continuing into this match.

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