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Bahia and Botafogo meet in Serie A with both sides showing attacking intent and a tendency for high-scoring, competitive matches. Both teams are closely matched in the standings and recent form, suggesting a tight contest with plenty of challenges.
Bahia
v
Botafogo
Serie A | Sat 30 May, 21:30
Bahia v Botafogo Stats
Data last updated: Fri 29 May 2026, 02:46 UK time
BT4Y best bet
Over 3.5 Cards
Both Bahia and Botafogo average 3.2 yellow cards per game
Recent matches feature high shot counts from both sides (15.4 per game each)
Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Bahia and 60% of Botafogo games
Both teams have a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches
Competitive league positions increase the likelihood of a physical contest
Why The Model Likes This Bet
Chance, price and football numbers
The model rates Over 3.5 Cards at a strong 75% chance, supported by both Bahia and Botafogo averaging 3.2 yellow cards per match. High shot and goal rates indicate open play, which often leads to more fouls and bookings. With both teams closely matched in the table and recent form, the contest is likely to be intense, further increasing card potential. There are no major data limitations for either side, so the statistical base is reliable.
Yellow card averagesBahia 3.2, Botafogo 3.2 per game
Strong positive
Recent match competitivenessBoth teams separated by one point in the table
Positive
High attacking outputBoth average 15.4 shots per game
Positive
No data quality caveatsFull recent data for both teams
Neutral
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
Over 3.5 Cards stands out given both Bahia and Botafogo’s consistent discipline records and the likelihood of a closely fought contest. Both teams average over three yellow cards per game and are separated by just one point, which should keep the intensity high and the tackles coming throughout the match.
!
Main risk
The main risk is if the referee takes a lenient approach or if the match becomes one-sided early, reducing the need for tactical fouls and lowering the card count.
Quote from Expert
BT4Y analyst view · Discipline and match competitiveness
“With both sides showing aggressive intent and high card averages, this fixture has all the ingredients for a busy night for the referee. Expect plenty of challenges as Bahia and Botafogo battle for crucial points.”
Key Data Signals
Over 3.5 Cards evidence
Both Bahia and Botafogo average 3.2 yellow cards per game
Recent matches feature high shot counts from both sides (15.4 per game each)
Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Bahia and 60% of Botafogo games
Both teams have a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches
What To Watch In The Data
Over 3.5 Cards notes
Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Final line-ups and price movement can change the value quickly.
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
Bahia1.6
Avg goals scored
Botafogo1.6
Bahia2
Avg goals conceded
Botafogo1.4
Bahia100%
BTTS rate
Botafogo100%
Bahia80%
Over 2.5 goals
Botafogo60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 36% · edge +11.3 pts
Both Bahia and Botafogo have a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches, and Bahia’s 80% Over 2.5 rate suggests open, attacking games that can drive up card counts.
Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
Best odds for this sectionBotafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 26% · edge +30.3 pts
Botafogo to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots
Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.
Bahia6.8
Avg corners for
Botafogo4.4
Bahia12.8
Avg total corners
Botafogo9
Bahia3.2
Avg yellow cards
Botafogo3.2
Bahia15.4
Avg shots
Botafogo15.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 54% · edge +8.1 pts
Both teams average 15.4 shots per game, and Bahia win 6.8 corners on average, indicating sustained attacking play that often leads to defensive fouls and bookings.
Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
Bahia
LDLDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
26 May 2026A Coritiba2-3
17 May 2026H Gremio1-1
10 May 2026H Cruzeiro1-2
03 May 2026A Sao Paulo2-2
25 Apr 2026H Santos2-2
Botafogo
DWDLD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
23 May 2026A Sao Paulo1-1
17 May 2026H Corinthians3-1
10 May 2026A Atletico-MG1-1
02 May 2026H Remo1-2
25 Apr 2026H Internacional2-2
Best odds for this sectionBotafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 26% · edge +30.3 pts
Bahia and Botafogo’s recent games have been competitive and physical, with both averaging over three yellow cards per match, supporting the Over 3.5 Cards angle.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings and how much they still matter.
5Bahia wins
2Draws
3Botafogo wins
02 Oct 2025Botafogo v Bahia2-1
04 May 2025Bahia v Botafogo1-0
25 Aug 2024Bahia v Botafogo0-0
07 Aug 2024Bahia v Botafogo1-0
31 Jul 2024Botafogo v Bahia1-1
05 May 2024Botafogo v Bahia1-2
Best odds for this sectionBotafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 26% · edge +30.3 pts
The head-to-head sample gives context for Botafogo to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats
Player props and player-level numbers.
Best player marketArthur Cabral Anytime GoalscorerArthur Cabral · 7 goals · 1.12 SOT/90
Arthur Cabral has a clearer route to Arthur Cabral Anytime Goalscorer if the attacking pattern creates cut-backs, crosses or transition chances. 7 goals and 1.12 SOT/90 adds support, but the bet still needs the right starting role.
Arthur CabralBotafogo · Attacker
Goal threat70/100
Shots /901.99
SOT /901.12
DaniloBotafogo · Midfielder
Goal threat70/100
Shots /901.85
SOT /901.01
Matheus MartinsBotafogo · Attacker
Goal threat63/100
Shots /902.32
SOT /901.44
ArturBotafogo · Attacker
Goal threat58/100
Shots /902.36
SOT /901.88
C. OliveraBahia · Attacker
Goal threat50/100
Shots /901.9
SOT /901.33
Chris RamosBotafogo · Attacker
Goal threat45/100
Shots /9011.25
SOT /900
K. BarriaBotafogo · Attacker
Goal threat39/100
Shots /903.93
SOT /901.07
M. SanabriaBahia · Attacker
Goal threat55/100
Shots /902.98
SOT /901.19
Season team stats
Serie A
Bahia16
Played
Botafogo16
Bahia1.4
Avg goals for
Botafogo1.9
Bahia1.4
Avg goals against
Botafogo1.8
Bahia4
Clean sheets
Botafogo1
Best odds for this sectionBotafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 26% · edge +30.3 pts
Over 3.5 Cards is a discipline-led pick: Bahia average 3.2 yellow cards and Botafogo average 3.2, so the support comes from card volume rather than goals form.
League standings snapshot
Current table context.
Pos
Team
Pts
P
W
D
L
GD
8
Bahia
23
16
6
5
5
1
10
Botafogo
22
16
6
4
6
1
The league table only frames pressure here; the Over 3.5 Cards angle is mainly supported by yellow-card averages of 3.2 for Bahia and 3.2 for Botafogo.
Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
80%Bahia Over 2.5
60%Botafogo Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Bahia’s 80% and Botafogo’s 60% Over 2.5 Goals rates point to open games, which often correlate with higher card counts due to increased attacking play.
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Bahia
Botafogo
