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Bahia crestBahia
v
Botafogo crestBotafogo

Serie A | Sat 30 May, 21:30

Bahia v Botafogo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 22 Aug 2026, 00:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bahia face Botafogo in Serie A on Sat 30 May, 21:30. Bahia have seen both teams score in eight of their last ten league matches, driven by a high crossing volume but coupled with defensive lapses where they concede 1.9 goals per match. Botafogo have seen both teams score in an extraordinary 12 consecutive matches.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams To Score – Yes Rationale Bahia display a clear pattern of high-event football at Arena Fonte Nova

  • At 8/13, Both Teams To Score – Yes Rationale Bahia display a clear pattern of high-event football at Arena Fonte Nova implies roughly 62%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 76%.
  • The Both Teams to Score market requires each club to score at least one goal during the regular 90 minutes of play.
  • Bahia show a 100% BTTS rate and Botafogo show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Bahia average 1.6 goals scored and Botafogo average 1.6, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 76% for Both Teams To Score – Yes Rationale Bahia display a clear pattern of high-event football at Arena Fonte Nova sits against roughly 62% implied by the current price. Bahia show a 100% BTTS rate and Botafogo show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. The Both Teams to Score market requires each club to score at least one goal during the regular 90 minutes of play.

Model chance vs price76% model chance against roughly 62% implied
Positive
Bahia show a 100% BTTS rate and Botafogo show a.Visible data support
Positive
Bahia average 1.6 goals scored and Botafogo average 1.6, so.Visible data support
Positive
The Both Teams to Score market requires each club.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because the Both Teams to Score market requires each club to score at least one goal during the regular 90 minutes of play. Bahia show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Botafogo show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Because football matches can conclude in dozens of literal variations, this market carries high volatility but offers significantly higher prices to balance the lower probability of success.

Main risk

Because football matches can conclude in dozens of literal variations, this market carries high volatility but offers significantly higher prices to balance the lower probability of success.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score – Yes Rationale Bahia display a clear pattern of high-event football at Arena Fonte Nova evidence

The Both Teams to Score market requires each club to score at least one goal during the regular.

Bahia show a 100% BTTS rate and Botafogo show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Bahia average 1.6 goals scored and Botafogo average 1.6, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score – Yes Rationale Bahia display a clear pattern of high-event football at Arena Fonte Nova notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bahia1.6
Avg goals scored
Botafogo1.6
Bahia2
Avg goals conceded
Botafogo1.4
Bahia100%
BTTS rate
Botafogo100%
Bahia80%
Over 2.5 goals
Botafogo60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Botafogo Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Botafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Bahia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Bahia to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Bahia6.8
Avg corners for
Botafogo4.4
Bahia12.8
Avg total corners
Botafogo9
Bahia3.2
Avg yellow cards
Botafogo3.2
Bahia15.4
Avg shots
Botafogo15.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 60% · edge +8.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 62%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bahia

LDLDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
26 May 2026A Coritiba2-3
17 May 2026H Gremio1-1
10 May 2026H Cruzeiro1-2
03 May 2026A Sao Paulo2-2
25 Apr 2026H Santos2-2

Botafogo

DWDLD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
23 May 2026A Sao Paulo1-1
17 May 2026H Corinthians3-1
10 May 2026A Atletico-MG1-1
02 May 2026H Remo1-2
25 Apr 2026H Internacional2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.89
Check odds @ 1.89
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Botafogo Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Botafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Bahia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Bahia to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Bahia wins
2Draws
3Botafogo wins
02 Oct 2025Botafogo v Bahia2-1
04 May 2025Bahia v Botafogo1-0
25 Aug 2024Bahia v Botafogo0-0
07 Aug 2024Bahia v Botafogo1-0
31 Jul 2024Botafogo v Bahia1-1
05 May 2024Botafogo v Bahia1-2
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Botafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Bahia to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Bahia23
Played
Botafogo22
Bahia1.4
Avg goals for
Botafogo1.6
Bahia1.2
Avg goals against
Botafogo1.5
Bahia7
Clean sheets
Botafogo3
Best odds for this sectionBotafogo Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Botafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Bahia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Bahia to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Season data supports Botafogo Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Bahia342381054
11Botafogo30228681
Bahia sit in position 6, while Botafogo sit in position 11, so table pressure belongs in the Both Teams To Score – Yes Rationale Bahia display a clear pattern of high-event football at Arena Fonte Nova assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Bahia Over 2.5
60%Botafogo Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Bahia sit at 80% and Botafogo sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Bahia v Botafogo prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Competition and hubs

Serie A hubSerie A fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Bahia v Botafogocorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football stats

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre