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Auxerre crestAuxerre
v
Angers crestAngers

Ligue 1 | Sun 03 May, 16:15

Auxerre v Angers Stats

Data last updated: Tue 30 Jun 2026, 02:34 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Auxerre face Angers in Ligue 1 on Sun 03 May, 16:15. Auxerre have found vital defensive stability at home, keeping four clean sheets in their last five league games at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. A tense afternoon at the Abbé-Deschamps Survival Nerves, Fading Form and One Last Push.

BT4Y best bet

Auxerre means you win if they secure the three points at full-time

  • At 8/13, Auxerre Win implies roughly 62%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 72%.
  • In contrast, Angers are struggling significantly on the road, having lost seven of their last ten matches and averaging only 0.
  • Auxerre have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Angers.
  • Auxerre have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Auxerre Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Auxerre sit 15 in the table, while Angers sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 72% for Auxerre Win sits against roughly 62% implied by the current price. Auxerre have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Angers. In contrast, Angers are struggling significantly on the road, having lost seven of their last ten matches and averaging only 0.

Model chance vs price72% model chance against roughly 62% implied
Positive
Auxerre have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Auxerre have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
In contrast, Angers are struggling significantly on the road.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Auxerre Win is the preferred angle because in contrast, Angers are struggling significantly on the road, having lost seven of their last ten matches and averaging only 0.60 goals per away game. Auxerre have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Angers. Angers, three places above them, are not exactly cruising either—but their cushion gives them breathing space that the hosts simply do not have.

Main risk

Angers, three places above them, are not exactly cruising either—but their cushion gives them breathing space that the hosts simply do not have.

Key Data Signals

Auxerre Win evidence

In contrast, Angers are struggling significantly on the road, having lost seven of their last ten matches.

Auxerre have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Angers.

Auxerre have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Auxerre Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Auxerre sit 15 in the table, while Angers sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Auxerre Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Auxerre1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Angers0.6
    Auxerre1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Angers2.2
    Auxerre60%
    BTTS rate
    Angers60%
    Auxerre60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Angers60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 27% · edge +40 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 33%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAuxerre to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 60% · edge +12.5 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Auxerre Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.32
    Check odds @ 1.32
    Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 55%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Auxerre to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

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    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Auxerre4
    Avg corners for
    Angers3.6
    Auxerre9.4
    Avg total corners
    Angers10
    Auxerre1.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Angers1.2
    Auxerre9.8
    Avg shots
    Angers9.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 50% · edge +18 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 55%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Auxerre

    LDDDW
    Last 51W 3D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 5D 3L
    25 Apr 2026A Lyon2-3
    19 Apr 2026A Monaco2-2
    11 Apr 2026H Nantes0-0
    05 Apr 2026A Le Havre1-1
    21 Mar 2026H Stade Brestois 293-0

    Angers

    LDLDL
    Last 50W 2D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 7L
    25 Apr 2026H Paris Saint Germain0-3
    18 Apr 2026H Le Havre1-1
    11 Apr 2026A Rennes1-2
    05 Apr 2026H Lyon0-0
    20 Mar 2026A Lens1-5
    Market aligned with main pickAuxerre to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 60% · edge +12.5 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Auxerre Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.32
    Check odds @ 1.32
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Auxerre wins
    5Draws
    3Angers wins
    09 Nov 2025Angers v Auxerre2-0
    19 Jan 2025Angers v Auxerre2-0
    24 Nov 2024Auxerre v Angers1-0
    10 Feb 2024Auxerre v Angers1-0
    19 Aug 2023Angers v Auxerre2-2
    12 Feb 2023Angers v Auxerre1-1
    Market aligned with main pickAuxerre to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 60% · edge +12.5 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Auxerre to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Season team stats

    Ligue 1

    Auxerre34
    Played
    Angers34
    Auxerre1
    Avg goals for
    Angers0.9
    Auxerre1.3
    Avg goals against
    Angers1.4
    Auxerre9
    Clean sheets
    Angers10
    Market aligned with main pickAuxerre to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 60% · edge +12.5 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Auxerre Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.32
    Check odds @ 1.32
    Season data supports Auxerre to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    13Angers36349916-19
    15Auxerre343481016-10
    Auxerre sit in position 15, while Angers sit in position 13, so table pressure belongs in the Auxerre Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Auxerre Over 2.5
    60%Angers Over 2.5
    2.1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Auxerre sit at 60% and Angers sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Auxerre v Angers prediction

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    Betting context

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