Atletico Paranaense

Fluminense

Serie A | Sun 30 Aug, 15:00

Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense Stats

Data last updated: Sat 29 Aug 2026, 07:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense meet in a Serie A clash with both sides positioned near the top of the table, separated by just three points. Atletico Paranaense boasts a solid defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game, while Fluminense offers a more attacking threat with a higher average of shots and corners. The match promises tactical intensity, with Atletico Paranaense's disciplined approach contrasting Fluminense's offensive dynamism. Both teams have shown recent form that suggests a competitive encounter, with set-piece opportunities likely to be a key feature given their attacking styles and corner statistics.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

Atletico Paranaense averages 3.4 corners per game, Fluminense 6.6, combining for over 10 corners on average.
Model projects a 69% chance for Over 9.5 Corners, with a positive of 14.4%.
Fluminense's attacking players like John Kennedy and G. Cano generate high shot volumes, increasing corner potential.
Recent form shows both teams creating sustained pressure, supporting a high corner count.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a strong value bet with a 69% chance, well above the implied market chance of 54.6%. Both teams generate significant attacking pressure, reflected in their combined average corners per game exceeding 10. Fluminense's offensive players, including John Kennedy and G. Cano, contribute high shot volumes, often forcing defensive clearances resulting in corners. Atletico Paranaense's disciplined defense concedes fewer goals but still yields corner opportunities through sustained pressure. No data limitations or price warnings affect this selection, making it a confident pick for standard stakes.

Model Chance69%

Strong positive

Implied Market Chance54.6%

Strong positive

Value Edge14.4%

Strong positive

Combined Average Corners10.0 per game

Strong positive

Attacking Shot VolumeHigh from Fluminense players

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This corner market is appealing due to the contrasting styles of Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense. Fluminense's high shot and corner generation, led by players like John Kennedy and G. Cano, should create numerous set-piece chances. Atletico Paranaense's solid defense may limit goals but still allows for corners through pressure and clearances. The statistical edge and tactical setup make Over 9.5 Corners a compelling selection for this fixture.

Main risk

They did have to survive a second-half response, but their capacity to punish opponents quickly is becoming difficult to ignore.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corner market analysis

“Fluminense's aggressive attacking patterns combined with Atletico Paranaense's defensive resilience create a scenario ripe for frequent corner situations, making Over 9.5 Corners a tactically sound and statistically supported pick.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Atletico Paranaense averages 3.4 corners per game, Fluminense 6.6, combining for over 10 corners on average.

Model projects a 69% chance for Over 9.5 Corners, with a positive of 14.4%.

Fluminense's attacking players like John Kennedy and G. Cano generate high shot volumes, increasing corner potential.

Recent form shows both teams creating sustained pressure, supporting a high corner count.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

Analysis of the last ten matches between these teams shows an average of 2.8 goals per game, indicating moderately open games.
While this trend focuses on goals, the tempo and attacking intent reflected in these encounters suggest frequent transitions and defensive interventions, which typically generate corners.
The trend supports the expectation of a lively match with multiple set-piece opportunities.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionAtletico Paranaense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 61% · edge +15 pts

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

Load more odds for this section

Atletico Paranaense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 62%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

Fluminense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Fluminense to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

The Over 9.5 Corners market is priced attractively with reflecting a 54.6% implied chance, while the model estimates a 69% probability. This positive of 14.4% suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a high corner count, making it a favorable bet without any price warnings or reduced stake recommendations.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atletico Paranaense1.6

Avg goals scored

Fluminense-

Atletico Paranaense0.6

Avg goals conceded

Fluminense-

Atletico Paranaense40%

BTTS rate

Fluminense-

Atletico Paranaense20%

Over 2.5 goals

Fluminense-

Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 62% · edge +4.3 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%

4.33

Check odds @ 4.33

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

Both teams have moderate goal-scoring rates, with Atletico Paranaense averaging 1.6 goals and Fluminense 1.4. Fluminense's higher BTTS rate of 80% contrasts with Atletico Paranaense's 40%, indicating more open play from Fluminense. While goals may be modest, the attacking intent and defensive pressure contribute to set-piece opportunities, supporting the corner market rather than goal totals.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atletico Paranaense

WDWDW

Last 53W 2D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 106W 3D 1L

25 Aug 2026A Botafogo3-2

15 Aug 2026H RB Bragantino1-1

09 Aug 2026A Santos2-0

30 Jul 2026A Corinthians0-0

25 Jul 2026H Internacional2-0

Fluminense

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Fluminense yet.

Best odds for this sectionAtletico Paranaense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 61% · edge +15 pts

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

Load more odds for this section

Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%

1.28

Check odds @ 1.28

Atletico Paranaense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 62%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Fluminense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Fluminense to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

Recent form data shows Atletico Paranaense earning 11 points with a low goals-against average, indicating defensive solidity but also controlled attacking pressure that can yield corners. Fluminense has 9 points with a higher BTTS rate and more shots per game, suggesting a more open style that creates corner opportunities. Both teams' recent matches have featured sustained attacking spells and defensive resilience, aligning with expectations for a high corner count.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Atletico Paranaense3.5

Avg corners for

Fluminense-

Atletico Paranaense12

Avg total corners

Fluminense-

Atletico Paranaense1.5

Avg yellow cards

Fluminense-

Atletico Paranaense10

Avg shots

Fluminense-

Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 69% vs implied 55% · edge +14.4 pts

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Fluminense averages 6.6 corners per game, significantly higher than Atletico Paranaense's 3.4, reflecting their attacking style and sustained pressure. Fluminense also averages 16.4 shots with 6.6 on target, increasing the likelihood of defensive clearances leading to corners. Card data shows Fluminense commits more fouls, which may disrupt play and generate set-piece situations, reinforcing the corner count potential.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Atletico Paranaense wins

2Draws

6Fluminense wins

15 Mar 2026Fluminense v Atletico Paranaense3-2

01 Dec 2024Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense1-1

22 Oct 2024Fluminense v Atletico Paranaense1-0

27 Aug 2023Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense2-2

22 Apr 2023Fluminense v Atletico Paranaense2-0

03 Sep 2022Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense1-0

Best odds for this sectionAtletico Paranaense to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Load more odds for this section

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Fluminense to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 2.8 goals per game, suggesting balanced encounters with attacking moments. While goal data is moderate, the matches often feature tactical battles with sustained pressure from both sides. This pressure typically results in numerous corners as defenses are tested, providing indirect support for the Over 9.5 Corners market in this fixture.

Season team stats

Serie A

Atletico Paranaense24

Played

Fluminense24

Atletico Paranaense1.4

Avg goals for

Fluminense1.5

Atletico Paranaense0.9

Avg goals against

Fluminense1.2

Atletico Paranaense8

Clean sheets

Fluminense4

Best odds for this sectionAtletico Paranaense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 61% · edge +15 pts

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

Load more odds for this section

Atletico Paranaense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 62%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Fluminense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Fluminense to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

Season-long statistics reveal Atletico Paranaense averages 3.4 corners per game while Fluminense averages 6.6, combining for a total that comfortably exceeds 9.5. Fluminense's offensive numbers, including shots and key passes, support their ability to generate corners through persistent attacks. Atletico Paranaense's defensive approach still concedes corners via pressure and clearances, reinforcing the likelihood of a high corner total in this fixture.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
3	Atletico Paranaense	44	24	13	5	6	12
4	Fluminense	41	24	11	8	5	7

Atletico Paranaense sits 3rd and Fluminense 4th in the Serie A standings, separated by just three points, indicating a competitive match with both sides motivated to assert control. This competitive context often leads to intense battles along the flanks and frequent set-piece situations, which can increase corner counts. The stakes and table proximity suggest both teams will push offensively, supporting the corner market.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Atletico Paranaense Over 2.5

-Fluminense Over 2.5

2.8H2H avg goals

Analysis of the last ten matches between these teams shows an average of 2.8 goals per game, indicating moderately open games. While this trend focuses on goals, the tempo and attacking intent reflected in these encounters suggest frequent transitions and defensive interventions, which typically generate corners. The trend supports the expectation of a lively match with multiple set-piece opportunities.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense Stats

Match Report

Over 9.5 Corners

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Atletico Paranaense

Fluminense

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Football Stats Hub

Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense Stats

Match Report

Over 9.5 Corners

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Atletico Paranaense

Fluminense

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