Flamengo

Botafogo

Serie A | Sun 30 Aug, 20:00

Flamengo v Botafogo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 29 Aug 2026, 07:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Flamengo hosts Botafogo in a Serie A clash where both teams have shown cautious attacking output recently. Flamengo, sitting second in the table, have scored just 2 goals in their last four matches, while Botafogo have struggled offensively with less than one goal per game in recent outings. Defensive solidity and tactical discipline are likely to shape this encounter, with both sides prioritizing control and minimizing risks. The match carries importance for Flamengo's title ambitions and Botafogo's mid-table stability, suggesting a measured tempo and limited goal-scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

Flamengo have a 40% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, Botafogo only 20%.
Both teams show moderate BTTS rates: Flamengo 80%, Botafogo 40%.
Flamengo average 16 shots per game with 5.6 on target; Botafogo average 22 shots but fewer goals.
Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.5 over last 10 matches, indicating moderate scoring.
Flamengo rank 2nd with 45 points; Botafogo 11th with 30 points, reflecting differing season trajectories.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 61.3% chance, reflecting both teams' recent low scoring and defensive focus. Flamengo's modest goal output and Botafogo's limited scoring form support a tight game. Despite Botafogo's higher shot volume, finishing efficiency remains low, and Flamengo's defensive organization limits clear chances. The head-to-head average of 2.5 goals aligns with a cautious encounter. No data limitations affect , and the current offer positive value for this low-scoring prediction.

Recent Goal ScoringFlamengo 2 goals in last 4, Botafogo 0.8 goals per game

Strong positive

Shot Volume vs. EfficiencyBotafogo high shots but low goals, Flamengo balanced shots and defense

Positive

Head-to-Head Average Goals2.5 goals over last 10 matches

Positive

Model Confidence80% confidence in Under 2.5 Goals

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible call given Flamengo's disciplined defense and Botafogo's recent scoring struggles. Tactical caution and the importance of points for both teams suggest a controlled match with limited clear-cut chances. The data supports a low-scoring game, making this bet a solid choice for those expecting a tight contest.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Under 2.5 Goals

“This fixture's tactical balance and recent scoring trends strongly indicate a match where defenses will dominate, making Under 2.5 Goals a compelling selection with solid statistical backing.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams show moderate BTTS rates: Flamengo 80%, Botafogo 40%.

Flamengo average 16 shots per game with 5.6 on target; Botafogo average 22 shots but fewer goals.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.5 over last 10 matches, indicating moderate scoring.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 2.5, indicating moderate scoring.
Recent trends show both teams favoring structured play with fewer open chances.
The tempo and chance quality suggest Over 2.5 Goals is less likely, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals selection as aligned with historical and recent patterns.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Flamengo2

Avg goals scored

Botafogo0.8

Flamengo1

Avg goals conceded

Botafogo1

Flamengo80%

BTTS rate

Botafogo40%

Flamengo40%

Over 2.5 goals

Botafogo20%

Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 61%

1.2

Check odds @ 1.2

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 25%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

Goal trends show Flamengo scoring modestly with an 80% BTTS rate, while Botafogo's 40% BTTS and low scoring suggest limited goal exchanges. The head-to-head average of 2.5 goals supports a moderate scoring environment, indicating a match likely to stay under 2.5 goals with sporadic goal threats rather than open attacking play.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Flamengo

LWWDD

Last 52W 2D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 105W 3D 2L

23 Aug 2026A Cruzeiro1-2

16 Aug 2026A Mirassol5-1

09 Aug 2026H Vitoria2-0

29 Jul 2026A Internacional1-1

26 Jul 2026H Sao Paulo1-1

Botafogo

LLDWD

Last 51W 2D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 4D 3L

25 Aug 2026H Atletico Paranaense2-3

16 Aug 2026A Vitoria0-1

09 Aug 2026H Fluminense1-1

26 Jul 2026A Cruzeiro1-0

23 Jul 2026H Vitoria0-0

Best odds for this sectionBotafogo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts

4.1

Check odds @ 4.1

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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%

1.1

Check odds @ 1.1

Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 46%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

Flamengo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.23

Check odds @ 1.23

Botafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

7.5

Check odds @ 7.5

Flamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 65%

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

DrawBetfred guide price · model 23%

4.33

Check odds @ 4.33

Recent form shows Flamengo earning 8 points from their last four matches with only 2 goals scored, highlighting a defensive approach. Botafogo's 5 points and 0.8 goals per game underline offensive struggles. Both teams have low Over 2.5 Goals rates recently (40% Flamengo, 20% Botafogo), reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring encounter.

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Useful next reads

Serie A hub corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles stats dashboard football analysis hub prediction centre best bets research acca fixture filtering

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
2	Flamengo	45	23	13	6	4	24
11	Botafogo	30	23	8	6	9	0

Flamengo's 2nd place with 45 points reflects a strong campaign, likely encouraging a cautious approach to maintain position. Botafogo's 11th place and 30 points suggest mid-table security but limited offensive threat. The standings imply Flamengo will control tempo without excessive risk, while Botafogo may focus on defensive solidity, supporting a low-scoring match.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

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Botafogo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 39%

4.1

Check odds @ 4.1

Flamengo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.23

Check odds @ 1.23

Botafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

7.5

Check odds @ 7.5

Flamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 65%

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

DrawBetfred guide price · model 23%

4.33

Check odds @ 4.33

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively with around 2.25, reflecting a positive due to the model's 61.3% probability. The price accurately captures the cautious nature of both teams' recent matches, making this a price-sensitive but worthwhile bet without major warning flags.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Flamengo4.4

Avg corners for

Botafogo5.5

Flamengo6.8

Avg total corners

Botafogo13

Flamengo1.2

Avg yellow cards

Botafogo3.5

Flamengo16

Avg shots

Botafogo18.5

Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.

Check odds @ 2

Botafogo averages a high 8.25 corners per game, indicating some territorial pressure, but Flamengo's defensive discipline and lower fouling rate (1.2 yellows vs. Botafogo's 2.5) suggest controlled aggression. Shot volumes are balanced, with Flamengo averaging 16 shots and Botafogo 22, but finishing efficiency remains low, supporting a tight game with limited clear chances.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7Flamengo wins

1Draws

2Botafogo wins

14 Mar 2026Botafogo v Flamengo0-3

15 Feb 2026Botafogo v Flamengo1-2

15 Oct 2025Botafogo v Flamengo0-3

18 May 2025Flamengo v Botafogo0-0

13 Feb 2025Flamengo v Botafogo1-0

02 Feb 2025Botafogo v Flamengo1-3

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

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Botafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

7.5

Check odds @ 7.5

Flamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 65%

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

DrawBetfred guide price · model 23%

4.33

Check odds @ 4.33

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

The 10 previous meetings between Flamengo and Botafogo average 2.5 goals per game, reflecting balanced encounters with neither side dominating offensively. This historical data supports a cautious match scenario with moderate scoring, aligning well with the Under 2.5 Goals pick and indicating no strong trend toward high-scoring outcomes.

Season team stats

Serie A

Flamengo23

Played

Botafogo23

Flamengo2

Avg goals for

Botafogo1.6

Flamengo0.9

Avg goals against

Botafogo1.6

Flamengo9

Clean sheets

Botafogo3

Best odds for this sectionBotafogo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts

4.1

Check odds @ 4.1

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Flamengo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.23

Check odds @ 1.23

Botafogo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

7.5

Check odds @ 7.5

Flamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 65%

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

Season-long stats reveal Flamengo's solid defense conceding 1 goal per game and moderate attack output, while Botafogo concedes similarly but scores less. Flamengo's 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate contrasts with Botafogo's 20%, indicating Flamengo's matches are more open but still controlled. These profiles support a match with limited goals, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals prediction.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Flamengo Over 2.5

20%Botafogo Over 2.5

2.5H2H avg goals

Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 2.5, indicating moderate scoring. Recent trends show both teams favoring structured play with fewer open chances. The tempo and chance quality suggest Over 2.5 Goals is less likely, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals selection as aligned with historical and recent patterns.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Flamengo v Botafogo Stats

Match Report

Under 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Flamengo

Botafogo

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Football Stats Hub

Flamengo v Botafogo Stats

Match Report

Under 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Flamengo

Botafogo

Continue the research

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