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Flamengo crestFlamengo
v
Botafogo crestBotafogo

Serie A | Sun 30 Aug, 20:00

Flamengo v Botafogo Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 17:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Flamengo face Botafogo in Serie A on Sun 30 Aug, 20:00. Flamengo have scored 45 goals in 23 league matches, compared with Botafogo’s 37, giving the hosts both the stronger headline attack and a better recent scoring rate. Flamengo look stronger on recent form, while Botafogo remain vulnerable after weaker results.

BT4Y best bet

Flamengo to win and both teams to score

  • At 15/8, Flamengo to win and both teams to score implies roughly 35%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 46%.
  • Flamengo hold the stronger winning edge, while Botafogo still offer enough threat for BTTS.
  • Flamengo need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Flamengo on 8 and Botafogo on 5.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 80% for Flamengo and 40% for Botafogo.
  • Flamengo to win and both teams to score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 2 for Flamengo and 0.8 for Botafogo are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 46% for Flamengo to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 35% implied by the current price. Flamengo need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Flamengo on 8 and Botafogo on 5. Flamengo hold the stronger winning edge, while Botafogo still offer enough threat for BTTS.

Model chance vs price46% model chance against roughly 35% implied
Positive
Flamengo need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Flamengo hold the stronger winning edge, while Botafogo still.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Flamengo Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because flamengo hold the stronger winning edge, while Botafogo still offer enough threat for BTTS. Flamengo need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Flamengo on 8 and Botafogo on 5. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Flamengo to win and both teams to score evidence

Flamengo hold the stronger winning edge, while Botafogo still offer enough threat for BTTS.

Flamengo need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Flamengo on 8 and Botafogo on 5.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 80% for Flamengo and 40% for Botafogo.

Flamengo Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 2 for Flamengo and 0.8 for Botafogo are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Flamengo to win and both teams to score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Flamengo2
Avg goals scored
Botafogo0.8
Flamengo1
Avg goals conceded
Botafogo1
Flamengo80%
BTTS rate
Botafogo40%
Flamengo40%
Over 2.5 goals
Botafogo20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 25%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Flamengo

LWWDD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
23 Aug 2026A Cruzeiro1-2
16 Aug 2026A Mirassol5-1
09 Aug 2026H Vitoria2-0
29 Jul 2026A Internacional1-1
26 Jul 2026H Sao Paulo1-1

Botafogo

LLDWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
25 Aug 2026H Atletico Paranaense2-3
16 Aug 2026A Vitoria0-1
09 Aug 2026H Fluminense1-1
26 Jul 2026A Cruzeiro1-0
23 Jul 2026H Vitoria0-0
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 86% vs implied 91% · edge -4.9 pts
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
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Flamengo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Flamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Flamengo5727176431
12Botafogo35289811-4
Flamengo sit in position 1, while Botafogo sit in position 12, so table pressure belongs in the Flamengo to win and both teams to score assessment.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFlamengo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 81% · edge -8.5 pts
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Flamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Flamengo Draw No Bet is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Flamengo4.4
Avg corners for
Botafogo6.8
Flamengo6.8
Avg total corners
Botafogo12.6
Flamengo1.2
Avg yellow cards
Botafogo3
Flamengo16
Avg shots
Botafogo19.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 62% · edge -3.7 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7Flamengo wins
1Draws
2Botafogo wins
14 Mar 2026Botafogo v Flamengo0-3
15 Feb 2026Botafogo v Flamengo1-2
15 Oct 2025Botafogo v Flamengo0-3
18 May 2025Flamengo v Botafogo0-0
13 Feb 2025Flamengo v Botafogo1-0
02 Feb 2025Botafogo v Flamengo1-3
Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 71% · edge -6.7 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The head-to-head sample gives context for Flamengo to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Serie A

Flamengo27
Played
Botafogo28
Flamengo2
Avg goals for
Botafogo1.5
Flamengo0.8
Avg goals against
Botafogo1.6
Flamengo12
Clean sheets
Botafogo4
Market aligned with main pickFlamengo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 81% · edge -8.5 pts
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
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Flamengo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Season data supports Flamengo Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Flamengo Over 2.5
20%Botafogo Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Flamengo sit at 40% and Botafogo sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.