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Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama
v
Cruzeiro crestCruzeiro

Serie A | Sun 30 Aug, 01:20

Vasco DA Gama v Cruzeiro Stats

Data last updated: Sat 29 Aug 2026, 07:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features Vasco DA Gama, struggling near the relegation zone, hosting a strong Cruzeiro side sitting comfortably in fifth place. Vasco DA Gama have managed just two points recently, scoring infrequently and conceding heavily, while Cruzeiro have been in solid form, scoring more freely and maintaining a tighter defense. The away team’s tactical discipline and attacking efficiency contrast sharply with the home side’s defensive vulnerabilities, setting up a contest where Cruzeiro’s quality and momentum could prove decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Cruzeiro to Win

  • Cruzeiro holds a 70% to win with strong recent form and defensive solidity.
  • Vasco DA Gama have scored only 0.4 goals per game recently, while Cruzeiro average 1.6 goals.
  • Cruzeiro concedes just 0.8 goals per game compared to Vasco DA Gama’s 1.8, highlighting defensive gaps at home.
  • Cruzeiro’s average shots on target (5) surpass Vasco DA Gama’s (3.4), indicating better attacking threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Cruzeiro to win due to their superior recent form, stronger defense, and higher attacking output. Vasco DA Gama’s struggles to score and defensive frailties increase the likelihood of an away victory. Cruzeiro’s shooting volume and efficiency, combined with their position in the league, underpin a 70% chance to win. No data limitations affect , making this a solid value pick at the current .

Recent FormCruzeiro earned 12 points recently vs Vasco DA Gama's 2
Strong positive
Goals ScoredCruzeiro 1.6 vs Vasco DA Gama 0.4 per game
Strong positive
Goals ConcededCruzeiro concedes 0.8 vs Vasco DA Gama 1.8
Strong positive
Shots on TargetCruzeiro 5.0 vs Vasco DA Gama 3.4 average
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cruzeiro’s consistent form and defensive strength make them the logical choice to secure victory against a struggling Vasco DA Gama side. The away team’s ability to create and convert chances, combined with Vasco’s low scoring rate, supports backing Cruzeiro to win in this matchup.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Cruzeiro’s tactical discipline and attacking efficiency give them a clear edge over Vasco DA Gama, who have struggled to find form and defensive stability this season.”

Key Data Signals

Cruzeiro to Win evidence

Cruzeiro holds a 70% to win with strong recent form and defensive solidity.

Vasco DA Gama have scored only 0.4 goals per game recently, while Cruzeiro average 1.6 goals.

Cruzeiro concedes just 0.8 goals per game compared to Vasco DA Gama’s 1.8, highlighting defensive gaps at home.

Cruzeiro’s average shots on target (5) surpass Vasco DA Gama’s (3.4), indicating better attacking threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Cruzeiro to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.2, with Cruzeiro’s matches showing a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals.
  • This trend suggests a moderately open game with potential for multiple goals, aligning with Cruzeiro’s attacking style and Vasco’s defensive weaknesses.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vasco DA Gama0.4
Avg goals scored
Cruzeiro1.6
Vasco DA Gama1.8
Avg goals conceded
Cruzeiro0.8
Vasco DA Gama40%
BTTS rate
Cruzeiro60%
Vasco DA Gama40%
Over 2.5 goals
Cruzeiro60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 33%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Recent data shows Cruzeiro averaging 1.6 goals per game with a 60% BTTS rate, while Vasco DA Gama scores 0.4 with a 40% BTTS rate. This suggests a moderate likelihood of goals but a lower chance of both teams scoring, favoring Cruzeiro’s ability to score while Vasco’s attack remains limited.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCruzeiro to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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Cruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Cruzeiro to Win is priced attractively at implying just a 33% chance, while the model estimates a 70% probability. This significant reflects Cruzeiro’s superior form and defensive record, making the market a positive-value opportunity without current price warnings.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Vasco DA Gama4.5
Avg corners for
Cruzeiro5.75
Vasco DA Gama8.25
Avg total corners
Cruzeiro8
Vasco DA Gama1.5
Avg yellow cards
Cruzeiro3
Vasco DA Gama16
Avg shots
Cruzeiro15.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 50% · edge -8.8 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Cruzeiro averages slightly more corners (5.2) and shots (17.2) than Vasco DA Gama (4.8 corners, 15.6 shots), indicating territorial and attacking pressure. Vasco’s lower yellow card average (1.6) versus Cruzeiro’s (3) suggests Cruzeiro plays a more aggressive style, potentially influencing match tempo and discipline.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vasco DA Gama

LLDDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
23 Aug 2026A Palmeiras1-4
16 Aug 2026H Santos0-3
09 Aug 2026A Bahia0-0
26 Jul 2026H Mirassol1-1
16 Jul 2026A Vitoria0-1

Cruzeiro

WWWWL
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 2D 1L
23 Aug 2026H Flamengo2-1
16 Aug 2026A Corinthians2-1
09 Aug 2026H Mirassol3-1
31 Jul 2026A Coritiba1-0
26 Jul 2026H Botafogo0-1
Market aligned with main pickCruzeiro to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 79%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Cruzeiro’s recent form is strong with 12 points gained and a solid defensive record, contrasting with Vasco DA Gama’s poor run of just 2 points and low scoring output. This form disparity underpins Cruzeiro’s favored status and suggests momentum is firmly with the away side.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Vasco DA Gama wins
5Draws
3Cruzeiro wins
15 Mar 2026Cruzeiro v Vasco DA Gama3-3
27 Sep 2025Vasco DA Gama v Cruzeiro2-0
27 Apr 2025Cruzeiro v Vasco DA Gama1-0
29 Sep 2024Cruzeiro v Vasco DA Gama1-1
16 Jun 2024Vasco DA Gama v Cruzeiro0-0
22 Nov 2023Cruzeiro v Vasco DA Gama2-2
Market aligned with main pickCruzeiro to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The last ten meetings average 2.2 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests. While historical results provide some background, current form and tactical differences carry more weight in predicting this match outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Vasco DA Gama23
Played
Cruzeiro24
Vasco DA Gama1
Avg goals for
Cruzeiro1.4
Vasco DA Gama1.7
Avg goals against
Cruzeiro1.4
Vasco DA Gama2
Clean sheets
Cruzeiro5
Market aligned with main pickCruzeiro to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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Cruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Season-long stats reinforce Cruzeiro’s superiority, with a higher goals scored average and tighter defense than Vasco DA Gama. The home side’s defensive struggles and low scoring rate highlight vulnerabilities that Cruzeiro can exploit to secure a win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Cruzeiro392411671
19Vasco DA Gama22235711-14
Cruzeiro’s fifth-place standing with 39 points reflects consistent performance and less pressure, while Vasco DA Gama’s 19th place and 22 points indicate relegation danger. This table context adds urgency for Vasco but also underscores Cruzeiro’s and quality advantage.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
60%Cruzeiro Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.2, with Cruzeiro’s matches showing a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals. This trend suggests a moderately open game with potential for multiple goals, aligning with Cruzeiro’s attacking style and Vasco’s defensive weaknesses.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Vasco DA Gama v Cruzeiro prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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