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Al-Qadisiyah FC crestAl-Qadisiyah FC
v
Al-Ahli Jeddah crestAl-Ahli Jeddah

Pro League | Tue 08 Sep, 19:00

Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Ahli Jeddah Stats

Data last updated: Mon 07 Sep 2026, 08:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah meet in a Saudi Pro League clash where both sides have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Al-Qadisiyah FC currently sit third with 12 points, while Al-Ahli Jeddah are fifth with 9 points, making this a competitive fixture with both teams eager to climb the table. Recent form highlights Al-Ahli's tendency for high-scoring games, while Al-Qadisiyah have been solid defensively but capable of contributing goals. The tactical setup suggests an open game with chances at both ends, setting the stage for a potentially goal-rich encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Al-Ahli Jeddah have an 80% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches, indicating frequent high-scoring games.
  • Al-Qadisiyah FC average nearly 15 shots per game with 6.2 on target, showing offensive pressure.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 3.4 goals per game over the last 10 matches, supporting a goal-heavy contest.
  • Al-Qadisiyah FC rank 3rd and Al-Ahli Jeddah 5th, both pushing for points in an open league phase.
  • Player stats show multiple attackers with high shot volumes and goal threat, including I. Toney and Turki Al Ammar.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals with a 46.4% chance, slightly above the implied market probability, reflecting a solid expectation of a high-scoring game. Both teams have shown attacking prowess and defensive lapses, with Al-Ahli Jeddah especially prone to games with many goals. The head-to-head average of 3.4 goals and strong shot metrics from key players like I. Toney and Turki Al Ammar underpin this view. The price is fair with a small positive edge, making this a sensible pick for bettors seeking an exciting, open match. No data limitations affect here.

Model Chance46.4%
Positive
Implied Market Chance45.5%
Neutral
Al-Ahli Jeddah Over 2.5 Rate80%
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.4 goals
Positive
Shot Volume from Key PlayersHigh shots and shots on target
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah push for vital points in the Pro League. Al-Ahli's tendency for high-scoring matches combined with Al-Qadisiyah's offensive pressure suggests a lively encounter with multiple goals. The statistical trends and player shot volumes support the likelihood of Over 3.5 Goals in this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and match openness

“This fixture features two teams with strong attacking profiles but defensive vulnerabilities, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling option given their recent scoring patterns and head-to-head history.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Al-Ahli Jeddah have an 80% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches, indicating frequent high-scoring games.

Al-Qadisiyah FC average nearly 15 shots per game with 6.2 on target, showing offensive pressure.

Head-to-head meetings average 3.4 goals per game over the last 10 matches, supporting a goal-heavy contest.

Al-Qadisiyah FC rank 3rd and Al-Ahli Jeddah 5th, both pushing for points in an open league phase.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 3.4 per game, indicating a history of open, high-scoring matches.
  • This trend, combined with recent form data, suggests a fast tempo and offensive-minded game that favors the Over 2.5 Goals market in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Al-Qadisiyah FC3.67
Avg corners for
Al-Ahli Jeddah3
Al-Qadisiyah FC6
Avg total corners
Al-Ahli Jeddah6.5
Al-Qadisiyah FC2
Avg yellow cards
Al-Ahli Jeddah1.5
Al-Qadisiyah FC11
Avg shots
Al-Ahli Jeddah16
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Al-Qadisiyah FC averages 7 corners per game compared to Al-Ahli's 3.5, indicating territorial advantage and sustained pressure. Both teams generate high shot volumes, with Al-Qadisiyah averaging 14.8 shots and Al-Ahli 15.25, suggesting active attacking play. Discipline is moderate, with Al-Ahli showing a slightly higher yellow card average, reflecting a competitive and physical match environment.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Al-Qadisiyah FC2
Avg goals scored
Al-Ahli Jeddah2.2
Al-Qadisiyah FC0.6
Avg goals conceded
Al-Ahli Jeddah1.2
Al-Qadisiyah FC40%
BTTS rate
Al-Ahli Jeddah20%
Al-Qadisiyah FC40%
Over 2.5 goals
Al-Ahli Jeddah80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 46% · edge +0.9 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Recent form shows Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals with an 80% rate, while Al-Qadisiyah FC's games are less frequent but still notable at 40%. The head-to-head average of 3.4 goals per game further supports the likelihood of multiple goals and potential BTTS scenarios.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionAl-Qadisiyah FC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 63% · edge +2.8 pts
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Load more odds for this section
Al-Qadisiyah FC to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Al-Ahli Jeddah Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Al-Ahli Jeddah to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced fairly with a slight positive , reflecting the model's 46.4% chance versus the market's 45.5%. This indicates a balanced but slightly favorable betting angle on a high-scoring game, supported by both teams' offensive tendencies and recent goal trends.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Al-Qadisiyah FC

WWWLW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 1L
03 Sep 2026A Al Diriyah2-0
30 Aug 2026H Al-Faisaly FC3-1
24 Aug 2026A NEOM2-0
21 Aug 2026H Al-Ittihad FC0-1
13 Aug 2026A Al Shabab3-1

Al-Ahli Jeddah

WLLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 2L
04 Sep 2026H Al Riyadh5-0
01 Sep 2026A Al-Hilal Saudi FC0-3
29 Aug 2026A Al Kholood1-3
22 Aug 2026H Abha4-0
13 Aug 2026A Al Diriyah1-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 83% vs implied 77% · edge +5.8 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Load more odds for this section
Al-Qadisiyah FC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Al-Qadisiyah FC to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Al-Ahli Jeddah Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Al-Ahli Jeddah to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches heavily favor Over 2.5 Goals with an 80% occurrence, reflecting their open playstyle and defensive lapses. Al-Qadisiyah FC's form is more balanced but still shows a 40% rate for Over 2.5 Goals, indicating potential for a high-scoring encounter when combined with Al-Ahli's tendencies.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Al-Qadisiyah FC wins
2Draws
5Al-Ahli Jeddah wins
13 Mar 2026Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Ahli Jeddah3-2
28 Nov 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Qadisiyah FC3-3
21 Nov 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Qadisiyah FC2-1
20 Aug 2025Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Ahli Jeddah1-5
25 Feb 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Qadisiyah FC4-1
27 Sep 2024Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Ahli Jeddah1-0
Best odds for this sectionAl-Qadisiyah FC to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 52% · edge +4.7 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Al-Ahli Jeddah to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The head-to-head record over the last ten matches shows a consistent pattern of high-scoring games, averaging 3.4 goals per match. This historical data supports the expectation of multiple goals in this encounter, though recent tactical adjustments by both teams may slightly moderate this trend.
Season team stats

Pro League

Al-Qadisiyah FC5
Played
Al-Ahli Jeddah5
Al-Qadisiyah FC2
Avg goals for
Al-Ahli Jeddah2.2
Al-Qadisiyah FC0.6
Avg goals against
Al-Ahli Jeddah1.2
Al-Qadisiyah FC2
Clean sheets
Al-Ahli Jeddah3
Best odds for this sectionAl-Qadisiyah FC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 63% · edge +2.8 pts
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Load more odds for this section
Al-Qadisiyah FC to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Al-Ahli Jeddah Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Al-Ahli Jeddah to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Season-long data reveals both teams have strong attacking outputs, with Al-Qadisiyah FC scoring 2 goals per game and conceding 0.6, while Al-Ahli Jeddah scores 2.2 but concedes 1.2. The disparity in defensive solidity suggests Al-Ahli's matches are more prone to higher goal totals, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals angle.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Al-Qadisiyah FC1254017
6Al-Ahli Jeddah953025
The league standings show Al-Qadisiyah FC in 3rd and Al-Ahli Jeddah in 5th place, both within striking distance of the top. This competitive context increases the likelihood of an open game as both teams seek points to improve their positions, potentially leading to riskier attacking approaches and more goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Al-Qadisiyah FC Over 2.5
80%Al-Ahli Jeddah Over 2.5
3.4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 3.4 per game, indicating a history of open, high-scoring matches. This trend, combined with recent form data, suggests a fast tempo and offensive-minded game that favors the Over 2.5 Goals market in this fixture.

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