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Al-Ahli Jeddah crestAl-Ahli Jeddah
v
Al-Hazm crestAl-Hazm

Pro League | Fri 11 Sep, 19:00

Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Hazm Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 08:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm meet in a tightly contested Pro League fixture where both sides sit mid-table and recent form suggests a competitive encounter. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking style and higher goal involvement contrast with Al-Hazm's more cautious approach, but both teams have shown tendencies for physical play, which could lead to a high card count. The match's intensity is underscored by the close league standings and the need for points to climb the table, setting the stage for a potentially tense and card-filled game.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • Al-Ahli Jeddah averages 2 yellow cards per game, Al-Hazm 2.6, indicating frequent fouling.
  • The model estimates a 60.9% chance for over 4.5 cards, showing strong value at 2.0 .
  • Recent matches show Al-Ahli Jeddah's games always exceed 2.5 goals, reflecting open play and fouling risks.
  • Key players like Naif Masoud have high card risk, increasing likelihood of multiple bookings.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 4.5 Cards due to both teams' aggressive defensive styles and high foul rates. Al-Hazm's average of 2.6 yellow cards per game and Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.0 suggest a physical match. Player-level data highlights individuals like Naif Masoud with elevated card risk, supporting the expectation of multiple bookings. The offer positive value with a 10.9% edge and a 60.9% , making this a strong pick for bettors seeking card markets.

Team foul and card averagesAl-Ahli Jeddah 2.0 yellows/game, Al-Hazm 2.6 yellows/game
Strong positive
Player card riskNaif Masoud with 1.48 yellows per 90 minutes
Positive
Model chance vs odds60.9% chance vs 50% implied chance at 2.0 odds
Strong positive
Recent formConsistent physical matches with high card counts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physical and intense contest between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm, with both teams prone to fouling as they seek control. The data supports a high card count, particularly given key players' disciplinary records and the teams' aggressive defensive styles. This match is likely to see multiple bookings, making Over 4.5 Cards a tactically and statistically sound choice.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm's defensive aggression and key players' card risks point to a match ripe for multiple bookings, making the Over 4.5 Cards market compelling for bettors.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Al-Ahli Jeddah averages 2 yellow cards per game, Al-Hazm 2.6, indicating frequent fouling.

The model estimates a 60.9% chance for over 4.5 cards, showing strong value at 2.0 .

Recent matches show Al-Ahli Jeddah's games always exceed 2.5 goals, reflecting open play and fouling risks.

Key players like Naif Masoud have high card risk, increasing likelihood of multiple bookings.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.7, indicating moderately open matches.
  • However, the focus on Over 2.5 Goals trends shows variability, with Al-Ahli Jeddah frequently involved in higher-scoring games.
  • The tempo and physicality of these encounters suggest a route to multiple fouls and cards rather than purely goal-focused outcomes.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Al-Ahli Jeddah3.8
Avg corners for
Al-Hazm4.2
Al-Ahli Jeddah7.2
Avg total corners
Al-Hazm9.2
Al-Ahli Jeddah2
Avg yellow cards
Al-Hazm2.6
Al-Ahli Jeddah13.8
Avg shots
Al-Hazm8.4
Market aligned with main pickOver 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 61% vs implied 50% · edge +10.9 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners (Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.8, Al-Hazm 4.2) and shots (13.8 and 8.4 respectively), reflecting open play and territorial exchanges. The average yellow cards per game (2.0 and 2.6) highlight a tendency for fouling and disciplinary actions, supported by aggressive midfield and defensive roles, which increases the likelihood of surpassing 4.5 cards.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Al-Ahli Jeddah2.4
Avg goals scored
Al-Hazm0.8
Al-Ahli Jeddah1.8
Avg goals conceded
Al-Hazm1
Al-Ahli Jeddah40%
BTTS rate
Al-Hazm40%
Al-Ahli Jeddah100%
Over 2.5 goals
Al-Hazm20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 52% · edge +4.3 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 77%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
While Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches consistently exceed 2.5 goals, Al-Hazm's lower scoring rate tempers expectations for a high-scoring game. Both teams have a moderate 40% BTTS rate, indicating goals from both sides are not guaranteed. The physical nature of the game may lead to fouls and cards rather than goals, aligning with the card market focus.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionAl-Hazm Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Al-Hazm to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Al-Ahli Jeddah Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
The Over 4.5 Cards market is priced attractively at 2.0 with a of 60.9%, indicating clear value. The 10.9% suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a high card count, supported by both teams' foul and card histories. This pricing makes the bet a positive-value opportunity rather than a mere watch-only angle.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Al-Ahli Jeddah

LWLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 3L
08 Sep 2026A Al-Qadisiyah FC2-3
04 Sep 2026H Al Riyadh5-0
01 Sep 2026A Al-Hilal Saudi FC0-3
29 Aug 2026A Al Kholood1-3
22 Aug 2026H Abha4-0

Al-Hazm

WDDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 2L
08 Sep 2026H Al Taawon1-0
05 Sep 2026A Al-Faisaly FC0-0
30 Aug 2026H Al Shabab1-1
24 Aug 2026A Al-Ittihad FC2-3
21 Aug 2026H Al Diriyah0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Load more odds for this section
Al-Hazm Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Al-Hazm to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Al-Ahli Jeddah Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah to WinBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Recent form data shows Al-Ahli Jeddah averaging 2.0 yellow cards per game and Al-Hazm 2.6, with matches often featuring physical play. Al-Ahli Jeddah's games have consistently gone over 2.5 goals, indicating open and contested matches that often lead to fouls and cards. This trend supports the expectation of a high card count in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7Al-Ahli Jeddah wins
2Draws
1Al-Hazm wins
05 Feb 2026Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Hazm2-0
26 Sep 2025Al-Hazm v Al-Ahli Jeddah0-2
22 Dec 2023Al-Hazm v Al-Ahli Jeddah0-4
11 Aug 2023Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Hazm3-1
29 May 2023Al-Hazm v Al-Ahli Jeddah0-0
18 Jan 2023Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Hazm1-0
Best odds for this sectionAl-Hazm to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 13% · edge +15 pts
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Al-Ahli Jeddah to WinBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows an average of 2.7 goals per game, reflecting competitive and open encounters. While goal trends are moderate, the physical nature of past meetings suggests a propensity for fouls and disciplinary actions, providing indirect support for a high card count in this fixture.
Season team stats

Pro League

Al-Ahli Jeddah6
Played
Al-Hazm6
Al-Ahli Jeddah2.2
Avg goals for
Al-Hazm1
Al-Ahli Jeddah1.5
Avg goals against
Al-Hazm1
Al-Ahli Jeddah3
Clean sheets
Al-Hazm2
Best odds for this sectionAl-Hazm Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Al-Hazm to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Al-Ahli Jeddah Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah to WinBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Season-long stats reveal both teams maintain aggressive defensive approaches, with Al-Hazm averaging 2.6 yellow cards per match and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.0. This sustained disciplinary pattern underpins the likelihood of exceeding 4.5 cards, reflecting tactical fouling and contested midfield battles throughout the campaign.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Al-Ahli Jeddah963034
10Al-Hazm862220
Both teams sit mid-table with only one point separating them, increasing the stakes for gaining an advantage. This competitive pressure often results in more aggressive play and tactical fouling, which can elevate the number of cards issued in the match, reinforcing the Over 4.5 Cards selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Al-Ahli Jeddah Over 2.5
20%Al-Hazm Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.7, indicating moderately open matches. However, the focus on Over 2.5 Goals trends shows variability, with Al-Ahli Jeddah frequently involved in higher-scoring games. The tempo and physicality of these encounters suggest a route to multiple fouls and cards rather than purely goal-focused outcomes.

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