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AFC Wimbledon crestAFC Wimbledon
v
Barnet crestBarnet

EFL Trophy | Tue 06 Oct, 19:00

AFC Wimbledon v Barnet Stats

Data last updated: Mon 05 Oct 2026, 09:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Barnet visit AFC Wimbledon in the EFL Trophy looking to build on recent attacking momentum. Barnet have scored five goals in their latest fixtures, showing a potent offense, while AFC Wimbledon have struggled to find the net consistently. Barnet's aggressive style and higher shot volume suggest they will seek to control the match tempo and press for goals. AFC Wimbledon’s defense has been tested but remains relatively solid, setting up a tactical battle where Barnet’s offensive edge could prove decisive in this knockout competition.

BT4Y best bet

Barnet to Win

  • Barnet have scored 5 goals recently versus AFC Wimbledon's 1, showing superior attack form.
  • Barnet average 20 shots per game with 7 on target, indicating strong offensive pressure.
  • AFC Wimbledon have a 100% BTTS rate but zero Over 2.5 goals, suggesting tight matches with goals at both ends.
  • Knowles leads with 3 goals and 4.14 shots on target per 90 minutes, a key attacking threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Barnet to win with a 70% chance, supported by their superior recent scoring form and shot volume. Barnet’s attack, led by T. Knowles, is significantly more potent than AFC Wimbledon’s, who have struggled to score and generate shots. The price offers positive value given Barnet’s clear offensive edge and defensive solidity, making them the strong favorite in this EFL Trophy clash. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Recent Scoring FormBarnet 5 goals vs AFC Wimbledon 1
Strong positive
Shot VolumeBarnet 20 avg shots, 7 SOT vs AFC Wimbledon 9 shots, 3 SOT
Strong positive
Key Player ImpactT. Knowles 3 goals, 4.14 SOT/90
Strong positive
Price Value39% model chance vs 37% implied (+2 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Barnet’s recent attacking form and shot control make them the tactical and statistical favorite to win this EFL Trophy match. Their ability to create and convert chances, particularly through T. Knowles, contrasts with AFC Wimbledon’s limited offensive output. Barnet’s and momentum should translate into a strong performance and a likely victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Barnet’s offensive firepower and shot volume clearly outmatch AFC Wimbledon, making them the logical pick to secure the win in this cup tie.”

Key Data Signals

Barnet to Win evidence

Barnet have scored 5 goals recently versus AFC Wimbledon's 1, showing superior attack form.

Barnet average 20 shots per game with 7 on target, indicating strong offensive pressure.

AFC Wimbledon have a 100% BTTS rate but zero Over 2.5 goals, suggesting tight matches with goals at both ends.

Knowles leads with 3 goals and 4.14 shots on target per 90 minutes, a key attacking threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Barnet to Win notes

  • Over the last eight meetings, the average goals per match is 2.88, indicating a moderately high scoring trend.
  • Barnet’s recent matches show a 100% Over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting this fixture could follow a similar pattern with open play and multiple goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AFC Wimbledon1
Avg goals scored
Barnet5
AFC Wimbledon1
Avg goals conceded
Barnet1
AFC Wimbledon100%
BTTS rate
Barnet100%
AFC Wimbledon0%
Over 2.5 goals
Barnet100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have a 100% BTTS rate recently, indicating goals at both ends are likely. Barnet’s 100% Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with AFC Wimbledon’s 0%, suggesting Barnet’s matches tend to be higher scoring. This match could see multiple goals driven by Barnet’s attack and open play.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBarnet to WinBetUK guide price · Model 39% vs implied 37% · edge +2 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Barnet Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 39% for Barnet to Win sits against roughly 37% implied by the current price (+2 pts). Barnet have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for AFC Wimbledon.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AFC Wimbledon

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
18 Aug 2026A Leyton Orient1-1

Barnet

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
18 Aug 2026H Arsenal U215-1
Market aligned with main pickBarnet to WinBetUK guide price · Model 39% vs implied 37% · edge +2 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Barnet Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Barnet’s recent form shows a strong attacking output with 5 goals scored and 3 points gained, contrasting with AFC Wimbledon’s single goal and 1 point. Barnet’s momentum and in front of goal provide a clear advantage heading into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%AFC Wimbledon Over 2.5
100%Barnet Over 2.5
2.88H2H avg goals
Over the last eight meetings, the average goals per match is 2.88, indicating a moderately high scoring trend. Barnet’s recent matches show a 100% Over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting this fixture could follow a similar pattern with open play and multiple goals.

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