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Accrington ST crestAccrington ST
v
Newport County crestNewport County

League Two | Sat 19 Sep, 15:00

Accrington ST v Newport County Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Accrington ST and Newport County meet in a League Two clash where both sides have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Accrington ST has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game, while Newport County mirrors this with similar defensive frailties. Both teams have recorded multiple high-scoring matches recently, with Accrington ST featuring in games with over 2.5 goals 80% of the time and Newport County 60%. This fixture promises open play and goal-scoring opportunities, with both teams eager to improve their league standing and capitalize on offensive strengths.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Accrington ST concedes 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive weakness.
  • Newport County also concedes 2.2 goals per game, suggesting open matches.
  • Accrington ST games have gone over 2.5 goals 80% of the time this season.
  • Newport County matches feature over 2.5 goals in 60% of games.
  • The last 10 meetings averaged 3.2 goals per game, supporting a high-scoring outlook.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 71.9% chance, significantly above the implied market chance of 54.1%. Both teams have leaky defenses, conceding over two goals per game, and their matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals. The head-to-head average of 3.2 goals per game further supports this trend. Offensive players like C. Caton contribute consistent shot volumes, increasing scoring opportunities. The data quality is solid, with comprehensive player stats enhancing in this selection.

Model Chance71.9%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance54.1%
Positive
Accrington ST Defensive Record2.2 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Newport County Defensive Record
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.2 goals per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This fixture features two teams with porous defenses and attacking players who generate significant shooting opportunities, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling choice. The consistent high goal averages in recent matches and head-to-head history suggest an open game with multiple scoring chances.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“Accrington ST and Newport County both show defensive vulnerabilities and attacking intent, creating a fertile environment for goals. The attacking contributions from key players like Jarvis and Caton underline the potential for a high-scoring encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Accrington ST concedes 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive weakness.

Newport County also concedes 2.2 goals per game, suggesting open matches.

Accrington ST games have gone over 2.5 goals 80% of the time this season.

Newport County matches feature over 2.5 goals in 60% of games.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 3.2 goals per game, highlighting a historical trend of high-scoring encounters.
  • This sample suggests a pattern of open play and defensive vulnerabilities that contribute to frequent goal-scoring, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals selection for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Accrington ST1.6
Avg goals scored
Newport County1.4
Accrington ST2.2
Avg goals conceded
Newport County2.2
Accrington ST80%
BTTS rate
Newport County80%
Accrington ST80%
Over 2.5 goals
Newport County60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have high BTTS rates at 80%, and their matches frequently surpass 2.5 goals, driven by defensive weaknesses and offensive activity. Accrington ST averages 1.6 goals scored per game, while Newport County averages 1.4, supporting an open game with goals at both ends. The head-to-head average of 3.2 goals per match further confirms the likelihood of multiple goals and BTTS.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Accrington ST to WinBetfred guide price · model 53%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Accrington ST Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Newport County Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Newport County to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 1.85 with a significant of 17.8%. The model's 71.9% probability exceeds the implied market chance, indicating a strong value opportunity rather than a price-sensitive bet. This pricing reflects the market's underestimation of the attacking and defensive dynamics between these teams.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Accrington ST2
Avg corners for
Newport County1
Accrington ST8.75
Avg total corners
Newport County12
Accrington ST3.5
Avg yellow cards
Newport County1
Accrington ST11.25
Avg shots
Newport County8
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
Accrington ST averages 2.4 corners and Newport County 2.8 per game, indicating moderate set-piece opportunities. Accrington ST commits more fouls and receives more yellow cards (3.4 per game) than Newport County (1.6), suggesting a more physical approach that could disrupt rhythm and create chances from free kicks. Both teams generate a healthy volume of shots, with Accrington ST averaging 13.4 shots and Newport County 8.6, supporting sustained attacking pressure.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Accrington ST

LWDLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 3L
12 Sep 2026A Barnet1-2
05 Sep 2026H Crawley Town3-2
01 Sep 2026H Grimsby2-2
29 Aug 2026A Walsall2-3
22 Aug 2026A Exeter City0-2

Newport County

DLLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 3L
12 Sep 2026H Fleetwood Town1-1
05 Sep 2026A Northampton0-1
01 Sep 2026A Salford City1-2
29 Aug 2026H Tranmere2-2
22 Aug 2026A Bristol Rovers3-5
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 80% vs implied 78% · edge +1.7 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Load more odds for this section
Accrington ST to WinBetfred guide price · model 53%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Accrington ST Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Newport County Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Newport County to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Recent form shows Accrington ST has earned 4 points with an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, while Newport County has 2 points with 60% of their games exceeding this threshold. Both teams have conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game, reflecting defensive frailties that have led to high-scoring matches. This recent trend supports the expectation of a goal-rich encounter.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Accrington ST wins
1Draws
5Newport County wins
27 Jan 2026Newport County v Accrington ST1-4
11 Oct 2025Accrington ST v Newport County0-1
11 Mar 2025Accrington ST v Newport County5-0
24 Aug 2024Newport County v Accrington ST3-1
09 Apr 2024Newport County v Accrington ST1-3
05 Aug 2023Accrington ST v Newport County3-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Accrington ST to WinBetfred guide price · model 53%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Newport County to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The head-to-head record over the last 10 meetings shows an average of 3.2 goals per game, indicating a consistent trend of high-scoring matches between Accrington ST and Newport County. This historical data supports the expectation of multiple goals in this fixture, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals pick.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League Two

Accrington ST6
Played
Newport County6
Accrington ST1.7
Avg goals for
Newport County1.7
Accrington ST2.2
Avg goals against
Newport County1.8
Accrington ST0
Clean sheets
Newport County1
Best odds for this sectionAccrington ST to WinBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 49% · edge +4.1 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Accrington ST Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Newport County Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Newport County to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Season-long data reveals both teams have leaky defenses, conceding 2.2 goals per game, and relatively potent attacks scoring 1.6 and 1.4 goals per game respectively. Accrington ST's 80% Over 2.5 rate and Newport County's 60% rate indicate a propensity for matches with multiple goals, reinforcing the likelihood of an open, attacking game.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
19Newport County56123-1
21Accrington ST56123-3
Both teams sit near the lower end of the League Two table, with Accrington ST in 21st and Newport County in 19th place, each with 5 points. This proximity in standings suggests a competitive fixture where both sides will seek to improve their position, likely encouraging attacking play to secure vital points rather than defensive conservatism.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Accrington ST Over 2.5
60%Newport County Over 2.5
3.2H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 3.2 goals per game, highlighting a historical trend of high-scoring encounters. This sample suggests a pattern of open play and defensive vulnerabilities that contribute to frequent goal-scoring, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals selection for this fixture.

Related football research

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