AC Horsens

Aarhus

Superliga | Sun 20 Sep, 15:00

AC Horsens v Aarhus Stats

Data last updated: Mon 21 Sep 2026, 00:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AC Horsens hosts Aarhus in a Danish Superliga clash where Horsens holds a clear form advantage, sitting 7th with 10 points compared to Aarhus' 11th place and 4 points. Horsens has shown stronger attacking output and resilience, scoring 2.2 goals per game while conceding 1.8, contrasting with Aarhus' lower scoring rate and leaky defense. The home side's recent performances suggest tactical solidity and offensive threat, making them favorites in this fixture despite Aarhus' occasional bursts of attacking pressure. The match promises intensity as Aarhus seeks to improve their standing, but Horsens' consistency and home advantage set the stage for a competitive encounter.

BT4Y best bet

AC Horsens to Win

AC Horsens leads the league standings with 10 points versus Aarhus' 4, showing better overall form.
Horsens averages 2.2 goals per game with an 80% Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating strong offensive potential.
Aarhus concedes 2 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities Horsens can exploit.
Ehibhatiomhan is a key attacking threat with 4 goals and 1.87 shots on target per 90 minutes.
Aarhus averages more shots per game but less accuracy, suggesting Horsens' defense can manage the pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors AC Horsens to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, goal-scoring ability, and defensive stability compared to Aarhus. Horsens' high Over 2.5 goals rate and efficient attack, led by K. Ehibhatiomhan, underpin this . Aarhus' defensive frailties and lower points tally further tilt the balance. The offer positive value given the implied chance of just 25.6%, making Horsens a compelling pick. No price warnings apply, and the data quality is solid with comprehensive team stats supporting this selection.

Model Win Probability74%

Strong positive

Implied Market Chance25.6%

Strong positive

Home Team Offensive Output2.2 goals/game

Strong positive

Away Team Defensive Weakness2 goals conceded/game

Positive

Key Player ImpactK. Ehibhatiomhan 4 goals, 1.87 SOT/90

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

AC Horsens' consistent scoring and home form make them the logical choice to secure victory against a struggling Aarhus side. Their superior defensive record and attacking efficiency, especially through K. Ehibhatiomhan, provide a solid foundation for a home win in this Superliga fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Horsens' blend of attacking efficiency and defensive solidity, combined with Aarhus' defensive lapses, positions them well to capitalize at home. Their ability to convert chances and maintain pressure should see them edge this contest.”

Key Data Signals

AC Horsens to Win evidence

AC Horsens leads the league standings with 10 points versus Aarhus' 4, showing better overall form.

Horsens averages 2.2 goals per game with an 80% Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating strong offensive potential.

Aarhus concedes 2 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities Horsens can exploit.

Ehibhatiomhan is a key attacking threat with 4 goals and 1.87 shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

AC Horsens to Win notes

In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.4 per game, with Horsens showing a strong tendency for Over 2.5 goals matches at 80%.
This trend suggests a relatively open game with attacking intent from Horsens and opportunities for goals, aligning with their recent offensive form and Aarhus' defensive vulnerabilities.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

AC Horsens2.6

Avg corners for

Aarhus8

AC Horsens9

Avg total corners

Aarhus10.2

AC Horsens2.6

Avg yellow cards

Aarhus1.4

AC Horsens11.8

Avg shots

Aarhus18.8

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 55% · edge +7.7 pts

1.82

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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%

1.5

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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Aarhus averages 8 corners per game compared to Horsens' 2.6, indicating they generate more wide play and set-piece opportunities. However, Horsens averages more shots on target (5.6) despite fewer corners, suggesting more efficient shooting. Disciplinary data shows Horsens receive more yellow cards (2.6 vs 1.4), reflecting a potentially aggressive approach that could disrupt Aarhus' rhythm and create set-piece chances.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AC Horsens2.2

Avg goals scored

Aarhus1

AC Horsens1.8

Avg goals conceded

Aarhus2

AC Horsens80%

BTTS rate

Aarhus60%

AC Horsens80%

Over 2.5 goals

Aarhus60%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts

3.25

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Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 80%

1.22

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%

1.75

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Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 44%

2.75

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%

1.33

Check odds @ 1.33

Both teams show tendencies toward goals, with Horsens boasting an 80% Over 2.5 goals rate and 80% BTTS rate, while Aarhus has a 60% rate for both. The average goals per game in their head-to-head is 2.4, supporting the likelihood of an open game with multiple goals. Horsens' attacking prowess and Aarhus' defensive struggles point to a match with goal-scoring opportunities for both sides.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAC Horsens to WinBetUK guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts

3.9

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AC Horsens Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%

2.68

Check odds @ 2.68

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 46%

3.25

Check odds @ 3.25

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%

1.5

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The for AC Horsens to win are priced attractively at 3.9, reflecting an implied chance of 25.6% which is significantly lower than the model's 74% win probability. This discrepancy indicates strong value in backing Horsens, as the market underestimates their form and home advantage. The price is not flagged for caution, suggesting in the selection without major price sensitivity.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AC Horsens

LWLWW

Last 53W 0D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 1D 4L

11 Sep 2026A FC Copenhagen0-2

06 Sep 2026A Sonderjyske5-2

28 Aug 2026H Viborg2-3

23 Aug 2026H Lyngby2-1

16 Aug 2026A Odense2-1

Aarhus

LDLLD

Last 50W 2D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 4D 4L

13 Sep 2026A FC Nordsjaelland0-2

05 Sep 2026H Silkeborg2-2

02 Sep 2026H FC Midtjylland0-2

30 Aug 2026A Randers FC1-2

23 Aug 2026H Odense2-2

Market aligned with main pickAC Horsens to WinBetUK guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts

3.9

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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 67%

1.91

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AC Horsens Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%

2.68

Check odds @ 2.68

Horsens has accumulated 9 points recently with a strong goal-scoring average of 2.2 per game, reflecting effective attacking play and resilience. Aarhus, with only 2 points and a lower scoring rate, struggles to maintain consistency. Horsens' recent form suggests momentum and , while Aarhus faces pressure to improve results, making Horsens the favored side to capitalize on this.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2AC Horsens wins

0Draws

8Aarhus wins

15 Jul 2026Aarhus v AC Horsens2-0

02 Jul 2025Aarhus v AC Horsens2-1

30 Jun 2024AC Horsens v Aarhus0-3

08 Jul 2023Aarhus v AC Horsens2-1

03 Mar 2023Aarhus v AC Horsens2-0

26 Nov 2022Aarhus v AC Horsens0-1

Market aligned with main pickAC Horsens to WinBetUK guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts

3.9

Check odds @ 3.9

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 46%

3.25

Check odds @ 3.25

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

The head-to-head record over ten matches shows an average of 2.4 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests. While the sample is not extensive, it suggests a balanced historical matchup with neither side dominating, though Horsens' current form and home advantage provide a stronger edge in this fixture.

Season team stats

Superliga

AC Horsens9

Played

Aarhus9

AC Horsens1.7

Avg goals for

Aarhus1.2

AC Horsens1.8

Avg goals against

Aarhus1.9

AC Horsens0

Clean sheets

Aarhus0

Market aligned with main pickAC Horsens to WinBetUK guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts

3.9

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AC Horsens Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%

2.68

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Over the season, Horsens has demonstrated a potent attack averaging 2.2 goals per game and a defense conceding 1.8, indicating balanced performance. Aarhus' season stats reveal a weaker defense conceding 2 goals per game and a less effective attack with 1 goal per game. These season-long trends support Horsens' superiority and likelihood to control the match.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
6	AC Horsens	11	9	3	2	4	-1
11	Aarhus	5	9	0	5	4	-6

Horsens' 7th place standing with 10 points contrasts with Aarhus' 11th place and 4 points, highlighting the pressure on Aarhus to climb the table. Horsens' mid-table security allows them to play with and assertiveness at home, while Aarhus must take risks to improve their position, potentially exposing defensive gaps.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%AC Horsens Over 2.5

60%Aarhus Over 2.5

2.4H2H avg goals

In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.4 per game, with Horsens showing a strong tendency for Over 2.5 goals matches at 80%. This trend suggests a relatively open game with attacking intent from Horsens and opportunities for goals, aligning with their recent offensive form and Aarhus' defensive vulnerabilities.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

AC Horsens v Aarhus Stats

Match Report

AC Horsens to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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AC Horsens

Aarhus

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AC Horsens v Aarhus Stats

Match Report

AC Horsens to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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AC Horsens

Aarhus

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