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Aalesund crestAalesund
v
Molde crestMolde

Eliteserien | Sat 11 Jul, 15:00

Aalesund v Molde Stats

Data last updated: Mon 24 Aug 2026, 16:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aalesund face Molde in Eliteserien on Sat 11 Jul, 15:00. Aalesund come in with 8 recent points and 1.6 goals per match, while Molde have 9 points and 1 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Aalesund to Win

  • At 3.2, Aalesund to Win implies roughly 31%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 41%.
  • Molde have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Aalesund.
  • Molde have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Aalesund to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Aalesund sit 15 in the table, while Molde sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 41% for Aalesund to Win sits against roughly 31% implied by the current price. Molde have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Aalesund.

Model chance vs price41% model chance against roughly 31% implied
Positive
Molde have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Molde have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Aalesund Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Molde have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Aalesund. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Aalesund to Win evidence

Molde have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Aalesund.

Molde have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Aalesund Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Aalesund sit 15 in the table, while Molde sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Aalesund to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Aalesund1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Molde1
    Aalesund1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Molde1
    Aalesund80%
    BTTS rate
    Molde40%
    Aalesund60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Molde40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 69% · edge +3.9 pts
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 60%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 80% for Aalesund and 40% for Molde, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Aalesund

    DDWWL
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 5D 3L
    29 May 2026H Ham-Kam2-2
    25 May 2026A Tromso1-1
    20 May 2026H Brann2-1
    16 May 2026A Rosenborg3-2
    03 May 2026A Sandefjord0-1

    Molde

    WLWLW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 1D 4L
    30 May 2026H Sandefjord2-1
    25 May 2026A Sarpsborg 08 FF1-2
    16 May 2026H Kristiansund BK1-0
    10 May 2026A Tromso0-2
    04 May 2026A Bodo/Glimt1-0
    Market aligned with main pickAalesund to WinBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 31% · edge +10 pts
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 71%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Aalesund Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2

    Continue the research

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    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    4Molde27178366
    15Aalesund1517296-14
    Aalesund sit in position 15, while Molde sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Aalesund to Win assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAalesund to WinBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 31% · edge +10 pts
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Aalesund Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 60%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Aalesund to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Aalesund4.6
    Avg corners for
    Molde4.4
    Aalesund11.8
    Avg total corners
    Molde11.2
    Aalesund2.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Molde1.6
    Aalesund15.8
    Avg shots
    Molde11.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 67% · edge +2.3 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Aalesund wins
    0Draws
    8Molde wins
    27 Feb 2026Molde v Aalesund4-1
    16 May 2023Aalesund v Molde3-1
    03 May 2023Molde v Aalesund3-0
    25 Mar 2023Aalesund v Molde0-3
    18 Sep 2022Molde v Aalesund3-0
    16 May 2022Aalesund v Molde0-2
    Market aligned with main pickAalesund to WinBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 31% · edge +10 pts
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 60%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Aalesund to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Eliteserien

    Aalesund17
    Played
    Molde17
    Aalesund1.6
    Avg goals for
    Molde1.9
    Aalesund2.4
    Avg goals against
    Molde1.5
    Aalesund0
    Clean sheets
    Molde3
    Market aligned with main pickAalesund to WinBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 31% · edge +10 pts
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Aalesund Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Season data supports Aalesund to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Aalesund Over 2.5
    40%Molde Over 2.5
    3.9H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Aalesund sit at 60% and Molde sit at 40% with the H2H average at 3.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Aalesund v Molde prediction

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    Betting context

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