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Can Gasperini’s clean-sheet machine derail Allegri’s relentless title charge? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Roma have kept three consecutive Serie A clean sheets, while AC Milan have conceded only 16 goals all season. Both sides are elite defensively, and with Roma missing their main striker Dovbyk, this tactical battle at the Olimpico is likely to be a low-scoring affair decided by slim margins.
Read Rationale ▾
With Roma’s current defensive momentum and Milan’s 20-game unbeaten streak, a tactical stalemate is highly probable. Both teams prioritize defensive structure in top-four clashes, and Roma’s high possession often cancels out Milan’s counter-attacking threat, making a goalless draw a strong value play for the brave.
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Roma vs AC Milan Predictions and Best Bets
Roma vs AC Milan — William Hill Market Snapshot
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Both sides arrive in high-end form; Roma’s home clean-sheet streak is countered by Milan’s 20-game unbeaten run.
Roma’s elite defensive record suggests a low-scoring affair at the Olimpico.
- Clean-sheet momentum: Roma have won three straight Serie A matches without conceding, and they’ve followed it with a 2-0 Europa League win over Stuttgart to keep confidence sky-high.
- Milan’s league durability: AC Milan are unbeaten in 20 straight Serie A games and sit second on 46 points, with a tight record of 34 scored and 16 conceded after 21 matches.
- Shot volume meets game control: Roma average 13.7 shots and 58.0% possession in the league, while Milan take 14.1 shots with 87.5% pass accuracy — this could be decided by who blinks first.
Defensive Performance: Goals Conceded
Both clubs rank among the best in Serie A for defensive organisation, reflecting the tight nature of this top-four meeting.
Roma average just 0.57 goals conceded per game, bolstered by three straight league clean sheets.
Milan’s defensive structure has been key to their 20-match unbeaten streak in the top flight.
Technical Efficiency: Pass Accuracy
Control of the ball will be vital at the Olimpico to avoid turnovers that lead to counter-attacks.
With 58% possession, Roma rely on circulation to pin opponents back.
Milan are remarkably clean in possession, allowing them to dictate tempo despite lower total possession.
A packed Stadio Olimpico. Two of the top four. And a proper tension in the title picture. Roma arrive flying: three straight league wins, all with clean sheets, and a fresh dose of European confidence after beating Stuttgart 2-0 on Thursday. Gian Piero Gasperini has them sharp, aggressive, and organised — and suddenly their season has a clear line of sight.
But the visitors are the measuring stick. Massimiliano Allegri’s AC Milan are second with 46 points, within touching distance of top spot, and they simply don’t go away: 20 unbeaten league matches in a row. Kick-off is 19:45, and it feels like one of those nights where a single mistake, a single moment of genius, decides everything.
Team News & Lineups
Roma absences
- Artem Dovbyk (hamstring injury) — out until 07/04/2026
- P. Gollini (hamstring injury) — return date not listed
- Stephan El Shaarawy (Achilles tendon irritation) — return date not listed
- J. Esmoris Tasende (unknown injury) — return date not listed
AC Milan absences
- None listed
Roma possible starting lineup
Svilar; Mancini, Ndicka, Ghilardi; Celik, Cristante, Kone, Wesley; Soule, Dybala; Malen
AC Milan possible starting lineup
Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Pulisic, Leao
Lineup implications (quick hit):
- Without Dovbyk, Roma’s central punch changes. The spotlight shifts hard onto Donyell Malen after his debut goal, and Paulo Dybala to turn tight moments into chances.
- Milan’s XI is stacked for control and punch: Modrić to dictate, Rabiot to crash the box, and Pulisic/Leão to stretch the pitch and finish.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (League) | Roma | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 2nd |
| Points | 42 | 46 |
| Goals scored | 26 | 34 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 16 |
| Shots per game | 13.7 | 14.1 |
| Possession | 58.0% | 51.8% |
| Pass success | 83.3% | 87.5% |
Roma want to squeeze you high and keep the ball in your half. Milan are happy to be slightly leaner on possession, but cleaner with it — and their goals output shows they don’t need endless touches to hurt you. Roma’s defensive numbers are elite in the league, yet Milan’s unbeaten run suggests they always find a way to stay in the fight.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Roma: right-sided pressure, set-piece steel — and one glaring risk
Roma play to control the pitch. They push play into the opposition half, move it with short passes, and attack down the right. In this shape, Wesley becomes a massive lever — he’s already chipped in with 3 league goals, and he’s been a constant presence with four Man of the Match awards.
Roma’s spine looks built for control and duels. Manu Koné (91.4% pass accuracy) and Cristante keep the structure, while Mancini and Ndicka give aerial security. That matters because Roma are strong at defending set pieces and protecting the lead — a perfect mix for a fixture that could turn into a cage.
But here’s the catch: Roma are very weak defending counter attacks. Against Milan’s front two and their through-ball instincts, that’s not a small flaw — it’s a flashing warning light.
Milan: through balls, central punches, and ruthless wide quality
Milan’s style is direct without being chaotic: they attempt through balls often, take a lot of shots, and attack through the middle. Pulisic has 8 league goals in limited minutes (10 starts, 5 sub appearances), Leão has 7, and both can decide a match with one carry and one finish.
The wing-back platform matters too. Saelemaekers (7.18 rating) brings end product with 2 goals and 3 assists, while Bartesaghi gives balance. In midfield, Modrić keeps the ball moving at a high level (90.4% pass accuracy), and Rabiot adds power and late arrivals (3 goals, 3 assists).
The key clash: Roma’s high control vs Milan’s clean escape routes
Roma will try to pin Milan back and keep the match on their terms. Milan will try to bait that pressure, then break it with one sharp pass into the channel. If Roma’s rest-defence is even a fraction off, Milan’s forwards don’t need a second invitation.
Key Moments to Watch
- The first turnover in midfield: Roma’s control game depends on clean circulation. One loose pass, and Milan’s through-ball threat becomes instant.
- Dybala’s pockets: If Dybala receives between Milan’s midfield and back line, Roma’s whole attack gets teeth. If he’s forced wide or backward, Roma can look tidy without being deadly.
- Set pieces vs discipline: Roma defend set pieces strongly, but Milan carry aerial threats in Gabbia (2.5 aerials won) and Pavlovic (2.3). One messy phase can swing momentum.
What could go wrong?
Roma’s confidence is soaring, but high control can turn into high exposure. If they over-commit and Milan break the first press, the Olimpico can go from roar to nerves in seconds. For Milan, the risk is different: if they concede territory for too long, Roma’s shot volume and set-piece pressure can grind them down and force errors late on.
Best Bet for Roma vs AC Milan
Will Roma’s defensive wall hold firm, or can Milan’s relentless 20-game unbeaten streak silence the Olimpico?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Form | Roma: 3 clean sheet wins; Milan: 20 unbeaten | Under 2.5 Goals |
| Defense | Roma: 12 conceded; Milan: 16 conceded | Under 2.5 Goals |
| Efficiency | Roma: 13.7 shots; Milan: 14.1 shots | Draw |
Under 2.5 Goals
Roma enter this fixture as a defensive juggernaut under Gian Piero Gasperini. Having secured three consecutive Serie A victories without conceding a single goal, they have mastered the art of game control. Their 12 goals conceded across the season is the elite benchmark in the division, underpinned by a 58.0% possession rate that starves opponents of the ball.
While AC Milan are second in the table and boast a 20-game unbeaten run, they are coming up against a “clean-sheet machine.” Milan’s 16 goals conceded in 21 games further highlights that this is a meeting of the league’s most disciplined backlines. Even with creative forces like Modrić and Dybala on the pitch, both teams prioritize structure in high-stakes matches.
Roma’s tactical setup focuses on short passing and right-sided pressure, but they are wary of Milan’s through-ball threat. This often leads to a cagey “chess match” where neither side wants to blink first. Without Artem Dovbyk to provide a central focal point, Roma may struggle to break a Milan defense led by Tomori and Gabbia.
Milan, despite their attacking quality, are comfortable playing leant on possession (51.8%). They are happy to sit in a mid-block and wait for transitions. When two top-four sides with such strong defensive metrics collide at the Olimpico, the matches are historically decided by a single moment rather than a flurry of goals.
What could go wrong?
Roma’s glaring weakness is defending counter-attacks. If Pulisic or Leão exploit a high line early, the game could open up into an uncharacteristic shootout. Alternatively, an early goal from a set piece—where both teams possess significant aerial threats—could force a change in the defensive-first game plans.
Correct Score Lean
Roma 0-0 AC Milan
Given that Roma have kept three straight clean sheets in the league and Milan have remained unbeaten for 20 matches, a stalemate is the most logical outcome. Both managers understand the value of a point in the title race and top-four battle. Roma’s high possession and Milan’s disciplined defensive shape often cancel each other out in the middle third. With Roma missing their primary striker Dovbyk and Milan facing the league’s best defense, the probability of a tactical deadlock at the Olimpico is high.
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