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Can Pisa’s survival grit hold firm against the title-chasing rhythm of AC Milan? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale▾
Milan have kept 13 clean sheets and boast a high pass accuracy of 88%. Pisa struggle for goals, averaging just 0.73 per game. With Milan’s defensive stability and Pisa’s lack of attacking bite, a win without conceding is highly probable.
Read Rationale▾
AC Milan average 1.65 goals per game while Pisa concede 1.67. Milan’s control and volume of shots (14.15 per game) against a team that has failed to score in half their matches points toward a comfortable 2-0 victory for the visitors.
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Friday night at Arena Garibaldi has two very different kinds of pressure baked into it. Second-bottom Pisa host second-placed AC Milan as both sides pursue vastly different seasonal objectives.
Pisa vs AC Milan — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Milan’s 50 points versus Pisa’s 15 creates a clear divide in quality, with the visitors heavily favoured in the 1X2 market.
Pisa’s low scoring average (0.73) suggests a night where Milan will do the heavy lifting in terms of total goals.
Milan’s defensive record of 13 clean sheets makes a comfortable 2-0 win a statistically plausible outcome this Friday.
Milan have shut out opponents in 50% of matches, a stark contrast to Pisa’s struggles in front of goal.
Match Preview
Friday night at Arena Garibaldi – Stadio Romeo Anconetani has two very different kinds of pressure baked into it. Pisa, sitting 19th and second-bottom, are scrapping for oxygen. AC Milan, 2nd and chasing down Inter, arrive knowing “only victory will do” to cut the gap and keep the title race humming.
Oscar Hiljemark’s Pisa have lived on the edge: winless across most of the season, short on goals, and regularly forced to defend deep. Massimiliano Allegri’s Milan, unbeaten across a long Serie A stretch, bring structure, patience, and attackers who don’t need many invitations to get in the net. Under the lights at 19:45, it’s survival grit versus championship rhythm.
Attacking Volume: Average Shots per Match
Defensive Control: Clean Sheets Recorded
Team News & Probable Lineups
Pisa absences
- M. Marin – suspended (yellow card suspension)
- A. Šemper – knee inflammation
- C. Stengs – groin surgery (out until 27.02.2026)
- R. Albiol Tortajada – suspended
AC Milan absences
None listed.
Pisa probable lineup (3-5-2)
Scuffet; Canestrelli, Caracciolo, Bozhinov; Toure, Loyola, Aebischer, Angori; Stojilkovic, Moreo; Durosinmi
AC Milan probable lineup (3-5-2)
Maignan; De Winter, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Athekame, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Nkunku, Leao
Tactical Analysis
- Pisa losing M. Marin takes bite out of a midfield that already struggles to keep the ball (41% possession overall).
- With A. Šemper sidelined, the goalkeeping picture tightens — and against Milan’s shot-heavy approach, that’s not a comfortable place to be.
- Milan’s midfield triangle of Modric, Rabiot, and Fofana screams control: high pass accuracy (87.2%) and the ability to feed runners early.
- The three punchy stats have to be bullets list:
- Pisa have scored 19 goals across 24 Serie A matches (0.73 per game), while AC Milan have 38 in 23 (1.65 per game).
- Shot volume tells a story: Pisa average 9.92 shots per game (258 total), while AC Milan average 14.15 (368 total), shaping a night of pressure versus resistance.
- Clean-sheet contrast: Pisa have 6 clean sheets in 26 played games (0.23 per game), while AC Milan have 13 (0.50 per game) — a massive difference in game control.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Pisa | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 2nd |
| Points | 15 | 50 |
| Goals scored | 19 (24 apps) | 38 (23 apps) |
| Goals conceded | 40 (24 apps) | 17 (23 apps) |
| Avg shots per game | 9.92 | 14.15 |
| Possession | 41% | 53% |
| Pass accuracy | 77% | 88% |
| Clean sheets | 6 (26) | 13 (26) |
Strategic Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Milan’s grip: centre-first, pass-first, chance-heavy
Milan’s style points to a deliberate squeeze: short passing, through balls, and a preference to attack through the middle. With 53% possession and 88% pass accuracy, they can recycle attacks until Pisa finally blink. That’s where Luka Modric becomes the tempo switch. He’s not there for sprinting; he’s there to keep Milan’s spacing perfect and to slide passes between lines when Pisa’s wing-backs get dragged too deep. Adrien Rabiot adds another layer — a genuine dual threat with 4 goals and 4 assists in the league, plus the size to dominate duels around the box.
Pisa’s plan: long, wide, and messy on purpose
Pisa’s identity is clear: long passes, frequent crossing, and a right-sided lean — plus a willingness to shoot. The issue is finishing: they’re very weak at converting chances, and they’ve scored in just 12 of their last 26 matches. So Pisa need their moments to be loud and efficient. Stefano Moreo is their leading league scorer with 5 goals — he’s the magnet for aerial balls and knockdowns.
Key Moments to Watch
- First 15 minutes: Pisa’s average first goal time sits at 58’ — slow starts can’t become passive starts here.
- Wing-back battles: Pisa want crosses; Milan want width and central access.
- Discipline and cheap set pieces: Pisa’s weaknesses include giving away dangerous fouls and struggling on set pieces.
- Finishing under pressure: Pisa average 0.73 goals per game. If a big chance falls, they have to take it.
What could go wrong?
For Milan, complacency is the trap: dominate the ball, miss the early chances, then get dragged into a scrappy contest of second balls and crosses. For Pisa, the risk is simpler — if the first goal goes against them, their need to chase opens the very spaces Milan love to attack, and the evening can run away fast.
Market Insight & Tactical Analysis
Win to Nil Market
This market requires the selected team to win the match while keeping a clean sheet. It offers higher returns than a standard match result but fails if the opposition scores a single goal.
Correct Score Market
A high-reward market where you predict the exact final scoreline. It is sensitive to late game-state changes but rewards tactical accuracy regarding team scoring averages.
🎯 Milan to Win to Nil: Rationale
The statistical gulf between these two sides suggests a match defined by Milan’s control and Pisa’s lack of offensive threat. Milan arrive with the second-best defensive record in the league, having secured 13 clean sheets this season. Their midfield, anchored by Luka Modric and Adrien Rabiot, maintains a pass accuracy of 88%, allowing them to squeeze the pitch and deny opposition possession. Pisa, currently sitting in 19th place, average a mere 0.73 goals per game and have managed to find the net in only 12 of their last 26 matches.
Tactical Indicators
- Milan’s 88% pass accuracy ensures sustained possession and defensive security.
- Pisa average less than one goal per match (0.73) across the campaign.
- The absence of Pisa’s M. Marin reduces their ability to disrupt Milan’s rhythm.
Risk Factor: Milan can be caught offside if they over-force central passes, and Pisa’s right-sided crossing lean could create chaotic second-ball situations.
🎯 Correct Score 2-0: Rationale
Predicting a 2-0 scoreline aligns with the scoring and conceding patterns of both clubs. AC Milan average 1.65 goals per game and generate high shot volumes (14.15 per match). Christopher Nkunku and Rafael Leao provide the clinical edge needed to break down a Pisa defence that concedes an average of 1.67 goals per game. Pisa’s defensive vulnerabilities include struggling against wide attacks and set pieces, both areas where Milan excel. Given that Pisa have recorded 6 clean sheets but struggle to score, a result where Milan score twice without reply fits the tactical landscape of the Arena Garibaldi.
Key Tactical Mismatch
88% pass accuracy and 53% possession allows Milan to dictate tempo and pin opponents deep.
Struggle to defend counter-attacks and wide movement, leaving them exposed to Leao and Nkunku.
Expert Q&A: Pisa vs AC Milan ⚔️
⊕ What is a ‘Win to Nil’ bet?
A Win to Nil bet requires your chosen team to win without conceding any goals. In this match, an AC Milan win to nil means Milan must win and Pisa must score zero goals.
⊕ Why is Milan favoured to keep a clean sheet?
Milan have recorded 13 clean sheets in 26 games this season. Their defensive stability is contrasted by Pisa’s attacking struggles, with the hosts averaging only 0.73 goals per game.
⊕ Who are the key players for AC Milan’s attack?
Christopher Nkunku and Rafael Leao lead the line. Their movement is supported by Adrien Rabiot, who has contributed 4 goals and 4 assists from midfield.
⊕ How does Pisa’s missing personnel affect the game?
Pisa are missing M. Marin and R. Albiol Tortajada through suspension. These absences weaken their defensive structure and ability to control the midfield.
⊕ What is the significance of ‘shot volume’ in this match?
Milan average 14.15 shots per game compared to Pisa’s 9.92. This indicates Milan will likely dominate the offensive territory and test the Pisa goalkeeper frequently.
⊕ Can Pisa cause an upset at Arena Garibaldi?
Pisa’s best route is through direct long passes and frequent crossing to Stefano Moreo. However, their low finishing efficiency makes an upset statistically difficult.
⊕ What is the ‘Correct Score’ market trade-off?
Correct score bets offer high odds but are highly volatile. A single late goal can ruin the bet, even if the team you backed wins the match.
⊕ What time is kickoff and where is the match played?
The match kicks off at 19:45 UK time on February 13 at the Arena Garibaldi – Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
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