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Can Genoa’s set-piece punch stop Torino’s slide at the Ferraris? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Genoa are robust at home and rely heavily on set pieces, while Torino are struggling for form with four losses in six. Given both sides’ tendency to drop points from winning positions and their mediocre scoring rates, a tight, low-scoring encounter favouring the hosts’ dead-ball strength seems highly likely.
Read Rationale ▾
Both teams have a significant problem protecting leads, with Genoa dropping 20 points from winning positions. Torino’s counter-attacking threat matches up well against Genoa’s wing vulnerability, making a scoring stalemate plausible as both sides look to avoid a damaging defeat in their fight against the drop zone.
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Two sides hovering above the drop zone collide at Stadio Ferraris. Genoa’s set-piece threat meets Torino’s counter-punch in an edgy Sunday morning clash.
Genoa vs Torino — William Hill Market Snapshot
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Genoa’s home stability at the Ferraris gives them the edge over a sliding Torino side that has lost four of their last six matches.
With both sides averaging low goal counts and showing lead-protection issues, the markets strongly favour a low-scoring 11:30 kick-off.
Genoa’s record of dropping 20 points from winning positions makes the 1-1 scoring draw the most statistical likelihood.
With a massive 48% of league goals coming from set pieces, Genoa’s primary threat is established through restarts.
Match Preview: Survival Scrap at the Ferraris
- Dead-ball obsession: Genoa have made set pieces a weapon, with a league-high 48% of their Serie A goals coming from dead-ball situations — and Leo Østigård is among their top scorers with 4 league goals.
- The lead-protection problem: Genoa are three points clear of the relegation places, yet they’ve let seven points slip from winning positions in 2026 alone — 20 points dropped from winning positions across the season.
- Toro’s results have gone sour: Torino have lost four of their last six matches (W1 D1 L4), and over the wider picture they’ve conceded 48 goals in 29 games across all competitions.
Tactical Identity: Set-Piece Goal Percentage
Genoa’s reliance on dead-ball situations is a defining characteristic of their offensive strategy this season.
Almost half of their offensive output originates from corners, free-kicks, and throw-ins.
Torino’s defensive record has regressed, having conceded nearly 50 goals across 29 fixtures.
Lead Protection: Points Dropped
Both teams have displayed a consistent inability to secure results after taking the lead.
This vulnerability often leads to late drama and shifts in match momentum.
A poor run of form has seen the visitors slide closer to the relegation scrap.
Sunday morning at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris has that tight, edgy feel you only get near the bottom. Genoa and Torino are hovering above the drop zone, neither looking comfortable, neither able to breathe. Genoa’s revival under Daniele De Rossi has hit a wobble — a 0-0 draw away at Cremonese ended a run of five-goal chaos, and summed up a side that can flip from open and wild to stubborn and sealed.
Torino arrive bruised, sliding down the table and leaking goals too often for comfort. With kick-off at 11:30, expect an urgent start: not pretty, not patient — just two teams chasing control before panic arrives.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Genoa Absences
Sebastian Otoa (ankle problems) – return date not listed
Torino Absences
No injuries or suspensions listed.
Probable Lineups
Genoa: Bijlow; Marcandalli, Østigård, Vásquez; Norton-Cuffy, Frendrup, Malinovskyi, Ellertsson, Martín; Vitinha, Colombo
Torino: Paleari; Marianucci, Maripán, Coco; Pedersen, Casadei, Prati, Lazaro; Vlasic; Simeone, Kulenovic
Lineup Analysis
- Genoa missing Otoa trims depth at the back, and that matters for a side already battling individual errors and a shaky grip on leads.
- Torino’s set-up puts a lot on Nikola Vlasic (6 goals, 3 assists) to link midfield to the front two — if he’s crowded out, the away side can go blunt fast.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Genoa | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| League position / points | 17th / 24 | 14th / 27 |
| Serie A goals scored | 29 (25 games) | 25 (25 games) |
| Shots per game (Serie A) | 11.6 | 11.9 |
| Possession (Serie A) | 47.0% | 44.0% |
| Pass accuracy (Serie A) | 79.6% | 79.0% |
| Clean sheets (all comps) | 6 (28 games) | 11 (29 games) |
This looks like a low-margin scrap. Both teams fire around 12 shots a game, but Genoa keep the ball a touch more and live for moments — especially dead balls. Torino’s cleaner sheet count hints they can shut games down, yet their recent run says they’re struggling to control the chaos when it hits.
Tactical Battle: Width vs Counter-Punch
Genoa: width, crosses, and chaos by design
De Rossi’s Genoa don’t try to win games with long spells of sterile possession — they can’t keep it well, and that’s baked into their profile. Instead, they stretch the pitch, cross often, and attack down the left. The plan is simple: win territory, win fouls, win corners, and make every dead ball feel like a penalty.
That’s where Ruslan Malinovskyi (5 goals, 3 assists) and Aarón Martín (4 assists) matter. Martín’s delivery and Malinovskyi’s quality around the box feed straight into Genoa’s biggest edge: a massive 48% of their league goals come from set pieces. And with Østigård chipping in 4 goals, Torino’s defenders will spend the morning wrestling first, playing later.
But there’s a catch. Genoa are vulnerable defending set pieces themselves, and they’re prone to individual errors. Add in a “very weak” record for protecting leads and you’ve got a team that can switch off at the worst moment.
Torino: counter-punching with a soft underbelly
Marco Baroni has Torino built to strike on the break — they’re very strong on counter-attacks and like to go through the middle with long balls and early crosses. That’s an awkward match-up for Genoa, who struggle against through balls and attacks down the wings. Torino can hurt them if Lazaro and Pedersen drive into space and Vlasic threads the needle.
The problem is what happens when Torino lose it. They are very weak at defending counter-attacks and also shaky protecting leads — meaning this fixture can swing twice. If Torino push wing-backs high and the pass goes astray, Genoa’s wide outlets can turn it into a straight-line race back to their own box.
Key Zones & Match Factors
- Set-piece volume vs defensive discipline: Genoa want stoppages and deliveries. Torino must stay clean — no silly fouls, no cheap corners.
- Second balls: With crosses and long balls flying, the team that wins the scrap after the first contact will own the momentum.
- Dead balls in both boxes: Genoa’s goals lean heavily on set pieces, but they also defend them poorly — this could be the loudest battleground.
- Wide vulnerability: Both sides are weak defending attacks down the wings, so the wing-backs and wide midfielders could decide everything.
- Game-state nerves: Genoa have dropped 20 points from winning positions this season; Torino are also weak protecting a lead. One goal won’t settle it.
- Discipline: Torino average 14.76 fouls per game (428 total), Genoa 13.07 (366). This could turn into a stop-start scrap if tempers rise.
Potential Pitfalls
For Genoa, it’s the same nightmare: they get ahead, the crowd relaxes, and a single lapse drags them into a late mess again. For Torino, it’s losing structure after a good spell — one broken press, one loose long ball, and suddenly they’re defending their own counter-attacking weakness in full sprint.
📊 Market Insights & Tactical Rationale
Double Chance & Total Goals
This market covers two of three match outcomes (Genoa win or Draw) and sets a ceiling on the total score. It is ideal for cagey matches where defensive structure is prioritised over expansive play.
Correct Score
A high-volatility market requiring the exact final scoreline. While riskier, it reflects the tactical likelihood of game-state shifts, such as teams cancelling each other out.
🎯 Pick 1: Genoa to Win or Draw & Under 2.5 Goals
Genoa enter this fixture with a clear tactical identity focused on set-piece efficiency and home territory. With 48% of their goals coming from dead-ball situations, they possess a specific route to goal that does not require sustained possession. Torino, conversely, are on a significant downward trend, losing four of their last six outings. This suggests the visitors may lack the confidence to dominate proceedings at the Ferraris.
Furthermore, both teams struggle to score frequently, averaging roughly one goal per game in Serie A. The 11:30 UK kick-off often leads to cagey starts, and with both managers aware of the relegation pressure, a cautious approach is anticipated. Genoa’s ability to shut games down when required, coupled with Torino’s recent scoring drought, points towards a match where goals are at a premium.
- Genoa league-high 48% set-piece goal ratio.
- Torino 4 losses in last 6 matches (W1 D1 L4).
- Both teams average ~12 shots per game with low conversion.
Risk Factor: Genoa’s history of individual errors could lead to an unexpected breakthrough for the visitors.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Generating 48% of league goals from set pieces, making every corner a high-probability event.
⚔️ Pick 2: Correct Score 1-1
A scoreline of 1-1 is supported by the specific “lead-protection” issues bothering both clubs. Genoa have dropped a staggering 20 points from winning positions this season, including seven points in 2026 alone. This suggests that even if the hosts find a breakthrough via their set-piece dominance, a lapse in concentration is statistically probable. Torino’s counter-attacking strength, led by Nikola Vlasic, is specifically designed to exploit the defensive errors Genoa frequently commit.
Torino are very strong at attacking through the middle and creating chances from through balls—a direct weakness in the Genoa backline. Given that Torino have conceded 48 goals this season, they are unlikely to keep a clean sheet against a side that attacks with width. However, Genoa’s own susceptibility to through balls and wing attacks means Torino should find enough space to equalise, leading to a share of the spoils.
Points Dropped (Genoa)
Goals Conceded (Torino)
Risk Factor: A single moment of individual brilliance from Ruslan Malinovskyi could tilt this toward a 1-0 or 2-1 result.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
⊕ What does Double Chance mean in betting?
Double Chance allows you to cover two of the three possible outcomes in a football match with a single bet. In this case, “Genoa or Draw” wins if Genoa win the game or the match ends in a stalemate.
⊕ Why is Under 2.5 Goals a common selection for these teams?
Both Genoa and Torino average around 1.1 goals scored per match in Serie A. When two teams with lower scoring efficiencies meet, the probability of the match seeing three or more goals is historically lower.
⊕ How does Genoa’s set-piece record affect the match?
Genoa score 48% of their goals from set pieces, meaning they are dangerous regardless of how much possession they have. This makes them a threat in tight games where open-play chances are rare.
⊕ What is the impact of Sebastian Otoa’s absence?
Otoa’s ankle injury reduces Genoa’s defensive rotation options. This can lead to fatigue or reduced tactical flexibility in the final stages of the game when the defence is under pressure.
⊕ Why do both teams drop so many points from winning positions?
This is often due to a “weakness in protecting a lead,” which can involve individual errors or a failure to defend counter-attacks. Genoa have lost 20 points this season after going ahead.
⊕ Is Torino’s counter-attack a threat to Genoa?
Yes, Torino are “very strong” on counter-attacks, while Genoa struggle against through balls and wing play. This tactical mismatch makes a Torino goal likely even if Genoa control the game.
⊕ What time is kick-off and where is the game?
The match takes place on 22 February at 11:30 UK time. It will be played at Genoa’s home stadium, the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
⊕ What should I consider before placing a bet?
Always consider the team form and tactical matchups, such as Genoa’s set-piece strength versus Torino’s defensive slide. Ensure you are aware that odds can change before kick-off.
Last Odds Update: Feb 21, 16:16 GMT | Editorial Policy
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