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Cagliari vs Pisa Predictions Sunday lunchtime in Sardinia, and it already has that familiar late-year feel: tight nerves, tight points gaps, and not much room for grand ideas. Cagliari and Pisa arrive with the same urgent problem — Serie A survival — and the same awkward recent habit, too: just one win between them across the past four matchdays. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is backed by the fact that both Lecce and Parma have scored just 12 goals each in 18 matches this season. Their offensive struggles are well-documented, with both teams averaging less than 0.85 goals per game. Recent form also supports a low-scoring game; under 2.5 goals has been a winning bet in four of Lecce's last five matches and all five of Parma's last five outings. With both teams fighting for survival, a cautious tactical approach is expected.
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A scoreless draw is a strong possibility given the attacking deficiencies on display. Lecce have failed to score in their last two home games, while Parma have struggled to find the net in recent high-pressure away fixtures. Both teams are ranked among the lowest in the league for shots per game and conversion rates. Given the high stakes of the relegation battle and the defensive setups likely to be employed by both managers, a stalemate where neither side manages to break the deadlock is a realistic result.
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Cagliari vs Pisa Predictions and Best Bets
Cagliari vs Pisa — bet365 Market Snapshot
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- Cagliari have 14 points from 15 matches (15th), four more than Pisa’s 10 (19th), and that gap frames a survival six-pointer where game state could shape risk-taking.
- Pisa have drawn seven of 15 league matches and failed to score in 60% overall, a combination that explains why they’ve struggled to turn tight games into points.
- Shot volume is similar but accuracy isn’t: Cagliari average 9.6 shots and 3.40 on target per match, while Pisa average 9.73 shots but just 2.27 on target.
Match Tempo: Average Total Goals per League Game
Both sides have spent the season in tight, high-stakes matches — and their total-goals averages hint at the type of tempo this one can settle into.
Their matches average 2.4 goals, reflecting a season where leads have rarely felt secure for long spells.
Pisa sit at 2.0 total goals per game, which often aligns with the draw-heavy feel of their season.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets This Season
Clean sheets show how often a side keep the scoreboard spotless — a useful marker in matches where one big moment can decide everything.
Three clean sheets across 15 matches suggests they often need to manage games with the scoreboard moving at least once.
Four clean sheets shows they can lock down games — the question is whether they can pair that with enough goal threat.
Attacking Output: Goals Scored per Match
A simple comparison of baseline scoring rate — helpful context for a fixture that could be decided by one clean passage or one scruffy finish.
An even 1.00 goal per match points to a side who can find the net, but rarely pull away from opponents with ease.
At 0.67 goals per match, Pisa have often needed games to stay tight — because chasing a deficit hasn’t been their comfort zone.
Will Cagliari’s home edge and extra cutting edge be enough to blunt Pisa’s draw-heavy resilience?
The Isolani at least have a little daylight. After 15 matches, Cagliari sit 15th on 14 points, four clear of Pisa in 19th on 10. It’s not a cushion so much as a thin jumper in a cold wind, but in this sort of scrap even a four-point lead can change how a match breathes. One side can think in terms of control and damage limitation. The other, inevitably, has to chase moments.
The numbers underline why this is being framed as a survival meeting rather than a mid-table free hit. Cagliari have scored 15 and conceded 21. Pisa have scored 10 and conceded 20. Neither set of figures scream “comfortable”, and both suggest a game where the next error, the next loose pass, or the next set-piece delivery could feel twice as heavy as it normally would.
And yet, there’s a twist to it. For all the table anxiety, both teams’ season patterns hint at matches that can swing late: Cagliari’s second halves have brought them more points than their first halves, while Pisa have been involved in a cluster of draws and repeated stalemates at the break. This might not be pretty, but it has the ingredients for a proper tussle — the sort where patience is a weapon and panic is a trap.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Cagliari’s possible XI is listed as: Caprile; Zappa, Mina, Luperto; Palestra, Adopo, Deiola, Folorunsho, Obert; Esposito, Borrelli.
Read literally, that looks like three centre-backs with a five-man midfield line and two forwards. If it plays out that way, it gives Cagliari natural width through Palestra and Obert, plus a busy central three in Adopo, Deiola and Folorunsho to compete for second balls and protect the back line. Up front, Esposito and Borrelli suggests a pairing where one can drop and link while the other stays higher to threaten the space behind.
Pisa’s possible XI is listed as: Semper; Calabresi, Caracciolo, Canestrelli; Toure, Vural, Aebischer, Marin, Angori; Moreo, Meister.
That reads in a similar rhythm: three at the back, five across midfield, two forwards. If both sides line up like-for-like, the match-up becomes brutally simple in certain zones: wing-back versus wing-back, a congested central strip, and forwards living off scraps unless someone takes responsibility on the ball.
Individually, Cagliari’s most productive names this season (in terms of end product) include Gennaro Borrelli and Sebastiano Esposito with three goals each, while Marco Palestra leads their assist chart with three. Pisa’s top scorer is Mbala N’Zola with three, while Stefano Moreo has two and also sits among their leading assist-makers with one. None of that guarantees how Sunday plays, but it does hint at where the finishing and final pass have come from in each squad so far.
How the Match Could Be Played
If both teams mirror each other in a back three and wing-backs, the first battle is width: who pins who back. Cagliari, at home, can try to turn the game into a sequence of long phases in Pisa’s half — not necessarily through relentless possession, but through territory. Their overall possession average is 44% this season, so the more realistic route is controlled directness: get the ball into the channels early, win throw-ins, win free-kicks, and keep Pisa facing their own goal.
Pisa’s possession average is even lower at 41%, which hints at a side that can be happy defending for spells and then trying to flip the pitch quickly. With Toure and Angori named on the flanks in that five-man band, they look built to travel up and down the line, and the presence of Moreo behind or alongside Meister suggests a front pairing that can mix link play and runs in behind.
Where it gets interesting is the middle. Cagliari’s Adopo–Deiola–Folorunsho trio, on paper, looks like it can bring legs and physicality, especially if the game turns into repeated transition moments. Pisa’s midfield trio of Vural, Aebischer and Marin is likely to be asked to do two jobs at once: protect the three centre-backs when Cagliari attack wide, and still find enough composure to feed the front two when the ball turns over.
Pressing, then, may be more about cues than constant harassment. With both teams posting modest attacking outputs — Cagliari scoring 1.00 per match and Pisa 0.67 per match — there’s a logic to pressing in short bursts: trap a wing-back on the touchline, jump on a backward pass, and try to create a quick shot rather than a long, elaborate move.
That matters because shot quality has been a theme for both. Cagliari average 9.6 shots per match with 3.40 on target, while Pisa average 9.73 shots with only 2.27 on target. In other words, Pisa shoot a similar volume but hit the target far less often. If this becomes a game decided by who lands the first clean punch, accuracy — not volume — could be the separator.
The 1v1s, in a mirrored system, are also easy to imagine. If Palestra and Obert push on for Cagliari, they’ll try to drag Pisa’s wide players back, stretching the distance between Pisa’s midfield and forward line. If Pisa’s wing-backs can keep their starting positions high, they can do the opposite: force Cagliari’s wide men to defend deeper and leave Esposito and Borrelli isolated.
And then there’s the emotional element that always creeps into relegation-leaning games: what happens if it stays level for a long time? Pisa have drawn seven of their 15 matches — nearly half — and their most frequent half-time scoreline is 0-0 (seven times). Cagliari, meanwhile, have had 0-0 at half-time in six matches. This has all the makings of a first half where nobody wants to be the one who blinks.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The table positions frame the stakes: Cagliari 15th on 14 points, Pisa 19th on 10 after 15 matches. That four-point gap is big enough to influence behaviour — especially for the home side.
Cagliari’s overall record (3 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses) and Pisa’s (1 win, 7 draws, 7 losses) show two teams living on the margins, but in different ways. Pisa’s draw count points to a side that can keep games close, even if they struggle to finish them off. Their 60% “failed to score” rate overall reinforces that: plenty of matches where the structure holds, but the goals don’t arrive.
Cagliari are not exactly free-scoring either, failing to score in 33% of matches, yet they do carry a slightly more stable attacking baseline. Their xG for is 1.06 per match, Pisa’s is 1.02 — not a chasm, but enough to suggest Cagliari generate marginally better chances, more often. The defensive side of the xG picture is less comforting for either: Cagliari’s xG against is 1.51 per match, Pisa’s is 1.69, which points to opponents finding decent looks against both.
Possession and tempo indicators hint at a scrappy midfield contest rather than a slick one. Cagliari average 44% possession, Pisa 41%. Both commit plenty of fouls and win plenty of free-kicks (Cagliari are given 15.6 free-kicks per match; Pisa 12.33), which supports the idea of a stop-start rhythm where set-piece delivery and second balls could matter as much as open-play patterns.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big moment might be the first shot on target, not the first shot. Cagliari’s 3.40 shots on target per match versus Pisa’s 2.27 suggests the visitors can huff and puff without landing enough on the goalkeeper. If Pisa don’t improve that accuracy, they risk spending long spells in the game without ever properly asking questions.
A second moment is the wing-back battle. With both teams listed in shapes that naturally create wide duels, the side that wins territory down the flanks can dictate where the game is played. If Cagliari’s Palestra and Obert can push Pisa’s wide men back, the match becomes something Pisa have to survive. If Toure and Angori can keep Cagliari honest, Pisa can turn it into a game of counters and quick switches.
Third: discipline and game management. Cagliari’s Adam Obert has six cards this season, while Pisa have several players on three cards — including Antonio Caracciolo, Mbala N’Zola, Michel Aebischer and Idrissa Touré. In a match where fouls and free-kicks are already part of the rhythm, the ability to avoid cheap stoppages in dangerous areas can be as valuable as any fancy passing pattern.
Finally, keep an eye on whether the game “wakes up” after the interval. Both sides show a tendency for low-key first halves: Cagliari’s most frequent half-time scoreline is 0-0 (40% of matches), and Pisa’s is 0-0 even more often (47%). If it’s tense early, that wouldn’t be a shock. The test is whether either side can raise the tempo without losing their shape — or whether it stays a slow burn until one moment breaks it.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. A match that looks like a cagey mirror-system chess game can be flipped by one early goal, one deflection, or one set-piece scramble. And when both sides have conceded 20+ goals across 15 matches, it only takes a single lapse of concentration for the whole plan to go up in smoke.
Best Bet for Cagliari vs Pisa
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Cagliari to win
The logical justification for a home win rests on the contrasting offensive efficiency and the specific home-field advantage held by Cagliari. While both teams find themselves in the lower reaches of the table, Cagliari possesses a significantly more reliable attacking baseline, having scored 15 goals compared to Pisa’s league-low tally of 10. This 50% higher scoring rate is supported by Cagliari’s superior shot accuracy; the Isolani average 3.40 shots on target per match, whereas Pisa struggle with just 2.27. In a match between two sides using mirrored 3-5-2 systems, the ability to convert limited chances becomes the deciding factor. Cagliari’s expected goals (xG) of 1.06 per match slightly outpaces Pisa’s 1.02, indicating they are more adept at creating high-quality openings.
Furthermore, the geographical and psychological edge of the Unipol Domus cannot be overlooked. Cagliari have secured two of their three wins this season at home, including a standout victory against Roma. Pisa, conversely, remain winless on their travels this term. Historical data further cements this “Sardinian fortress” narrative, as Cagliari have won seven of their last nine home games against Pisa. Given that Pisa have failed to score in 60% of their matches and are currently on a three-match scoring drought, they lack the firepower to exploit Cagliari’s defensive vulnerabilities. Cagliari’s tendency to improve in the second half also aligns with Pisa’s habit of conceding seven out of eight times they fall behind, suggesting that if the hosts break the deadlock, the visitors lack the tactical flexibility to respond.
What could go wrong The primary risk to this selection is the high frequency of draws involving Pisa, who have shared the spoils in seven of their 15 matches. If the game follows the pattern of their most recent head-to-head meeting—a 0-0 stalemate—Cagliari’s superior shot volume could be neutralized by a lack of clinical finishing. Additionally, Cagliari’s habit of conceding the opening goal (doing so in 10 matches this season) could force them into a desperate chase against a Pisa side that prioritizes defensive structure.
Correct score lean
Cagliari 1-0 Pisa
The 1-0 scoreline is the most probable outcome given both teams’ offensive limitations and their shared tendency for cautious starts. Pisa have failed to score in their last three matches and have also failed to score before half-time in 12 out of 15 games this season. With Cagliari also frequently seeing 0-0 scorelines at the interval, a single moment of quality is likely to decide the game. Cagliari’s average of one goal per game, combined with Pisa’s inability to hit the target regularly, points toward a narrow, low-scoring victory for the home side.
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