bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Derby dell’Appennino: will Bologna ride the Verona lift-off, or can Fiorentina’s recovery bite back at the Dall’Ara? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
▾
Bologna just came off a 3-2 thriller and face a Fiorentina side that concedes frequently but shoots often. Bologna's defensive injuries increase the likelihood of a high-scoring exchange.
▾
Bologna are the stronger side and should exploit Fiorentina’s 18th-place defensive struggles. However, the visitors' talent in Kean makes a clean sheet unlikely for the hosts.
Readers’ Tip
Vote your pick — quick & anonymous
Terms & Conditions (tap to view)
Bologna vs Fiorentina Predictions and Best Bets
Bologna vs Fiorentina — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Based on league position and home advantage, Bologna carry the higher likelihood of success in the 1X2 market.
Pricing reflects a competitive derby where a single-goal victory for the hosts is the outcome with the shortest listed price.
Market pricing is evenly split regarding the total goal count, with Both Teams to Score carrying a higher implied probability.
- Bologna Finally Breathe: After seven straight Serie A games without a win, Bologna snapped the run with a 3-2 comeback at Verona, scoring three before half-time and hanging on.
- Table Pressure is Real: Bologna sit 8th on 30 points, while Fiorentina are 18th on 14 points — a derby with Europe-chasing ambition on one side and survival anxiety on the other.
- Both Create, One Bleeds: Bologna average 14.22 shots per match in Serie A and concede 1.04 per game, while Fiorentina average 13.86 shots but concede 1.36 per game.
Offensive Volume: Shots per Match
Both teams demonstrate a high intent to attack, with similar shot volumes recorded throughout the Serie A campaign.
Bologna lead the shot count slightly, frequently utilising their 55% possession to create central and wide opportunities.
Led by Kean’s high individual volume, Fiorentina remain a constant threat despite their lower league standing.
Defensive Resistance: Goals Conceded per Game
The defensive discrepancy between these two sides is a significant factor in their respective league positions.
A disciplined defensive unit that has conceded significantly fewer goals than their derby rivals this season.
Frequent defensive lapses have led to a higher concession rate, particularly away from home.
The Stadio Renato Dall’Ara has the perfect derby mood: relief on one side, raw edge on the other. Bologna arrive for this 14:00 kick-off having finally put an end to a brutal league drought, fighting back at Verona in a five-goal scrap that demanded both nerve and a late save from Federico Ravaglia.
Now comes the Derby dell’Appennino — and the timing matters. With Celtic due in town in the Europa League next week, Vincenzo Italiano needs Bologna sharp, switched on, and ruthless in both boxes. Fiorentina, led by Paolo Vanoli, are climbing out of a grim early-season hole, but they travel as 18th, with away form that has been punishing. This one has tension written all over it: Bologna chasing momentum, Fiorentina chasing air.
Team News & Lineups
Bologna (Manager: Vincenzo Italiano)
- Injuries/Suspensions:
- C. Immobile (unknown injury)
- F. Bernardeschi (broken collarbone, out until 02/02/2026)
- N. Cambiaghi (red card suspension, until 19/01/2026)
- J. Lucumí Bonilla (hamstring injury, out until 11/02/2026)
- Probable XI: Ravaglia; Zortea, Heggem, Vitik, Miranda; Freuler, Moro; Orsolini, Fabbian, Rowe; Castro
- What it means: No Cambiaghi removes a creator (4 assists in Serie A), while Lucumí’s absence can test a back line already labelled very weak against skillful players. The upside? Bologna still have goals and chaos in the front half, led by Orsolini and Castro.
Fiorentina (Manager: Paolo Vanoli)
- Injuries/Suspensions: None listed.
- Probable XI: De Gea; Dodo, Comuzzo, Pongracic, Gosens; Mandragora, Fagioli, Brescianini; Solomon, Kean, Gudmundsson
- What it means: Fiorentina’s spine looks built for direct progression — Fagioli as a passer (3 assists) and Mandragora as a scorer from midfield (5 goals). But their soft spots are loud: they’re very weak at stopping chances and defending through balls.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Serie A) | Bologna | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 18th |
| Points | 30 | 14 |
| Goals scored | 29 | 21 |
| Goals conceded | 22 | 31 |
| Shots per game | 14.22 | 13.86 |
| Possession | 55% | 53% |
| Pass accuracy | 83% | 84% |
| Corners per game | 5.37 | 4.89 |
| Yellow cards per game | 1.96 | 2.32 |
Bologna’s edge shows up in the table and in the defensive column: fewer conceded, more points, and slightly more control in the territory game. Fiorentina still generate shots and move the ball cleanly, but they give up too much — and that’s a dangerous habit in a derby where one wobble becomes a wave.
William Hill
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
BetMGM
Bet £10 Get £40 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Betfred
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
10bet
100% Up To £50 On First Deposit
Show Terms & Conditions
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Bologna’s plan: width, long balls, and quick strikes after setbacks
Italiano’s Bologna blend possession football with long balls and proper width, and they’ve got a clear habit of punching back when they go behind. That Verona match said it all: concede early, respond with a Riccardo Orsolini screamer, then keep piling on — Jens Odgaard and Santiago Castro both on the sheet before half-time.
Expect Bologna to stretch this game from the flanks, particularly down the left, where their style leans. Juan Miranda is tidy and involved, while Orsolini (7 league goals) is the headline threat: quick to set and shoot, happy to attack the full-back’s outside shoulder, and always sniffing for the far corner. With Fiorentina rated weak at defending down the wings and very weak against long shots, Bologna’s shooting profile feels like a natural pressure point.
But there’s a warning label too. Bologna are weak in aerial duels and very weak against skillful players. If Fiorentina can isolate 1v1s and run at them, Bologna can be dragged into emergency defending.
Fiorentina’s plan: through balls, direct free-kicks, and central breaks
Fiorentina want to attack through the middle, attempt through balls, and hit early deliveries. That plays into two huge weapons: Moise Kean (5 goals) as a relentless shot-taker (4.1 shots per game) and Albert Gudmundsson (4 goals, 2 assists) as the link man who can slip passes into awkward areas.
They’re also rated very strong from direct free-kicks. With Bologna’s aggressive edge and Fiorentina’s own tendency to draw and commit fouls, dead balls could become a swing factor fast. The issue for Vanoli is keeping the back door shut: Fiorentina are very weak defending through balls and very weak at stopping opponents creating chances. Against a Bologna side that loves a quick vertical punch, that’s flirting with danger.
The match flow: Bologna control, Fiorentina counter with moments
Bologna should see more of the ball and more corners. Fiorentina can still make this uncomfortable by breaking centrally and turning transitions into shots quickly — but they have to survive Bologna’s pressure without giving up cheap chances.
Key Moments to Watch
- Orsolini zones: Bologna’s wide right threat versus Fiorentina’s wing defending. If Orsolini gets repeated 1v1s, shots will follow.
- Kean’s shot volume: Moise Kean averages 4.1 shots per game — if he gets early looks, Bologna’s “very weak vs skillful players” problem can surface.
- Set-piece discipline: Fiorentina are dangerous from direct free-kicks, while both sides carry weaknesses around fouls and defensive structure. One silly challenge can flip the derby.
- Late-game nerves: Bologna’s keeper Ravaglia had to produce a huge save to protect points at Verona — if this is tight late, margins will be thin.
What could go wrong?
For Bologna, it’s the classic post-relief dip: intensity drops after ending the drought, and Fiorentina nick moments in transition. For Fiorentina, it’s the familiar spiral: concede first, lose the shape, and spend the rest of the afternoon chasing a side that’s happier playing with width and a lead.
Best Bet for Bologna vs Fiorentina
Can Bologna’s Width Exploit Fiorentina’s Defensive Cracks?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring Form | BOLOG 29 goals; FIO 21 goals | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Defensive Gap | BOLOG concede 1.04; FIO 1.36 | Bologna Win |
| Shot Volume | BOLOG 14.22/gm; FIO 13.86/gm | Both Teams to Score |
| League Rank | BOLOG 8th (30pts); FIO 18th (14pts) | Bologna ML |
[bt4y_article_veil]
Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
The Derby dell’Appennino is set to be a high-octane affair where offensive volume outweighs defensive stability. Bologna have just snapped a winless streak with a chaotic 3-2 victory, proving they have the firepower to dismantle struggling backlines. They average over 14 shots per match and utilize a wide attacking style that will stretch a Fiorentina side currently sitting 18th in the table.
Fiorentina are extremely vulnerable, particularly against through balls and chance creation. While they sit in the relegation zone, their attacking metrics remain respectable, averaging nearly 14 shots per game themselves. They possess individual quality in Moise Kean, who takes 4.1 shots per match, and Albert Gudmundsson, who acts as a creative catalyst.
Bologna are missing key defensive pillar Lucumí, which exposes their backline to skillful players and aerial duels. This absence, combined with Fiorentina’s strength from direct free-kicks, means the visitors are likely to find the net despite their poor away form. Bologna’s tendency to respond aggressively after conceding suggests a game that will see multiple goals from both sides.
Expect Bologna to dominate possession and territory, but their high line and defensive injuries leave the door open for Fiorentina’s direct central breaks. With both teams ranking poorly in key defensive metrics while maintaining high shot volumes, the clinical edge of Orsolini and Kean should ensure the scoreboard stays busy throughout the 90 minutes.
What could go wrong? Bologna might prioritize defensive solidity to preserve energy for their upcoming Europa League clash against Celtic, leading to a more cagey, low-scoring encounter. Alternatively, Fiorentina’s struggles away from home could manifest as a complete offensive collapse if they concede early and lose their tactical shape.
Correct Score Lean
Bologna 2-1 Fiorentina
Bologna hold the superior league position and home-field advantage at the Dall’Ara. Their ability to generate 14.22 shots per match matches up perfectly against a Fiorentina defense that concedes 1.36 goals per game and is rated very weak at stopping chances. While Fiorentina have the individual talent in Kean and Gudmundsson to breach a Bologna defense missing Lucumí, the hosts’ superior point tally and tactical width should see them edge a close contest. A 2-1 scoreline reflects both Bologna’s offensive potency and their current defensive vulnerabilities.
Selected Bookmakers Offers
| |
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. | |
| |
Open Account Offer - New Customers only. Bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets when you join bet365. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value settle. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs , time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required. #Ad. 18+ Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. | |
| |
New cust only. Opt-in required. Deposit & place a bet within 7 days and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater to be credited with 3 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 football. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. T&Cs apply. Acca Club: Available to new & existing customers. 3 or more selections. Min Odds: 3/10 (1.3) per leg. Max stake: £500. Max Winnings: £200,000 per boost. Profit Boost amounts vary. Horse Racing, Greyhounds & Trotting excluded. Exclusions apply. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ GambleAware.org. | |
 | |
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs.+ deposit exclusions apply #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits apply. T&Cs Apply; 18+ | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
New customers only, 18+. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at 2.0+ to qualify for £25 in free bets and 10 Free Spins. Free Bets and Spins valid 7 days. £0.10 Free Spins. T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs Apply and deposit exclusions apply. Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+ New customers only. Opt in, and bet £10 on football markets (odds 2.00+). No cash out. Get 6x£5 football free bets at specified odds for set markets, which expire after 7 days. Offer valid from 12:00 UK Time on 25/08/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply | gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
