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Atalanta vs Bologna: Sarri’s Winning Start Faces a More Searching Test. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Atalanta’s defensive weaknesses and injuries contrast with Bologna’s strong away record and scoring ability, making both teams likely to score in this match. Atalanta’s recent wins mask underlying defensive issues, while Bologna’s history of scoring away supports this BTTS prediction.
A 1-1 draw balances Atalanta’s finishing and Bologna’s away strength. Both sides have scoring threats despite limited chance creation and defensive vulnerabilities, making this scoreline plausible without dominance from either team.
Atalanta have results on their side under Maurizio Sarri, but Monday’s Serie A meeting with Bologna should reveal rather more about the substance behind them.
Atalanta BC vs Bologna — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Atalanta's recent wins and Bologna's away strength create a competitive match.
Atalanta's recent wins contrast with Bologna's strong away record, shaping match odds.
Atalanta conceded 2.7 xG while Bologna scored frequently away, supporting BTTS.
Atalanta's low xG and Bologna's away wins suggest a close 1-1 scoreline.
Three Punchy Stats
- Atalanta beat Sassuolo 2-1 despite posting only 0.88 xG and conceding 2.7, a sizeable performance warning beneath an encouraging result.
- Bologna won 10 away league matches last season, with only Serie A’s top two recording more victories on the road.
- Atalanta won just two home games against fellow top-10 finishers last term, while Bologna have won four of their last five away meetings with La Dea across league and cup.
Goals Scored in Last 5 Matches
Recent attacking records for Atalanta BC and Bologna are shown below.
Clean Sheets in Last 5 Matches
Recent defensive records for Atalanta BC and Bologna are shown below.
Two wins and a draw from Sarri’s first three matches sounds tidy enough. The problem is that the 2-1 league victory over Sassuolo was far less secure than the scoreline suggests: Atalanta produced only 0.88 expected goals while conceding 2.7. Bologna, by contrast, began Domenico Tedesco’s reign with a 1-0 defeat to Lazio despite creating enough opportunities to make the outcome feel harsh.
So this is not simply a meeting between a winning side and a losing one. Recent performances complicate that picture considerably.
Atalanta’s Results Are Running Ahead of Their Performances
Giacomo Raspadori and Nikola Krstovic supplied the goals against Sassuolo, before Gianluca Scamacca came off the bench to score in the Conference League return against Hapoel Tel Aviv. Sarri therefore has attacking options producing tangible contributions, even if the collective performance has yet to become convincing.
That European tie provides another warning. Atalanta drew the home leg 0-0 and did not score in the return until the 72nd minute. Combined with the modest attacking output against Sassuolo, it suggests a side still searching for greater fluency despite winning its last two matches.
The defensive figures from the league opener are arguably more concerning. Allowing Sassuolo to generate 2.7 xG while creating less than one themselves is not the profile of a comfortable victory. It does not mean the same pattern will repeat, but Bologna arrive with evidence that they can produce chances even when the final score goes against them.
Bologna Have Reasons to Trust Their Away Record
Last season’s away form gives Tedesco a useful foundation. Bologna won 10 league matches on the road, a total bettered only by Serie A’s top two, and they have also won four of their last five away meetings with Atalanta across league and cup.
Their most recent visit ended in a 1-0 victory through Riccardo Orsolini. That history matters less than the broader pattern: Bologna were demonstrably capable travellers last term, whereas Atalanta won only two home matches against teams who finished in the top 10.
For all Bologna’s problems at home, travelling was rarely their weakness.
Selection Could Shape the Attacking Contest
Sarri rotated in Europe and could restore Scamacca, Davide Zappacosta and Charles De Ketelaere to the starting XI. Scamacca’s goal from the bench gives Atalanta another in-form option alongside Raspadori and Krstovic, although injuries to Thomas Kristensen, Isak Hien and Kamaldeen Sulemana reduce the hosts’ depth elsewhere.
Bologna have decisions of their own. Artem Dovbyk and Roberto Piccoli are competing to lead the attack, with Piccoli favoured because of greater match fitness, while Orsolini and Jonathan Rowe could operate in support.
Rowe’s situation adds an unusual wrinkle, with Atalanta having already had two bids rejected for the Bologna winger. More important for Monday is whether Bologna can turn the chance creation seen against Lazio into actual goals.
The Scorelines Do Not Tell the Whole Story
Atalanta enter with momentum, but their performances have left openings that Bologna appear equipped to test. The visitors still need to convert encouraging chance creation into goals, yet their away record and recent success in Bergamo make this a demanding examination of Sarri’s unbeaten start.
For Atalanta, the priority is straightforward: make the result reflect the performance rather than asking the performance to catch up later.
Other Opportunities in This Market
- Match Result (Atalanta Win / Draw / Bologna Win): This market settles based strictly on which team leads after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, or whether the match finishes tied. Atalanta at 10/11 requires a home win regardless of goals, while Bologna at 16/5 requires an away victory. It offers broader coverage of winning scorelines than an exact score bet, but carries no payout if the chosen side fails to win.
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals requires three or more total goals scored by both teams combined to win (e.g. 2-1, 3-0, 2-2), losing on two goals or fewer. Under 2.5 Goals requires two total goals or fewer (e.g. 0-0, 1-0, 1-1). Totals markets remove the need to pick a winning team, trading precise outcome selection for overall match goal volume.
- Double Chance (Bologna or Draw): Double Chance wins if Bologna win or if the match ends in a draw, losing only if Atalanta win. This market covers two out of three possible match outcomes, trading a lower return for a higher probability of avoiding a losing result compared to a direct away win.
📊 Market Explainer
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Selection: Both Teams To Score YES. Both teams must score at least once during normal time. The match winner does not matter; the selection is settled only by whether each side finds the net.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Atalanta vs Bologna 1-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Both Teams To Score YES @ 3/4
Atalanta have opened Maurizio Sarri’s tenure with two victories and a draw, but their defensive statistics reveal clear openings. In their 2-1 Serie A victory over Sassuolo, Atalanta yielded 2.7 expected goals while generating just 0.88 expected goals of their own. That divergence shows that opponents can reliably create quality scoring opportunities against this backline. Furthermore, squad depth in central defence is restricted by injuries to Thomas Kristensen and Isak Hien, which reduces rotational options during a period of frequent fixtures.
Bologna arrive in Bergamo with a proven record of scoring away from home. Domenico Tedesco’s side won 10 away league matches last season, a tally surpassed by only the top two teams in Serie A. They have also beaten Atalanta in four of their last five visits across league and cup competitions. Although Bologna suffered a 1-0 defeat to Lazio in their opener, they created enough chances to make that margin feel harsh. With Roberto Piccoli favoured to lead the line alongside Riccardo Orsolini, the visitors possess regular avenues to challenge Atalanta’s weakened defensive unit.
Atalanta retain consistent goalscoring contributors, as Giacomo Raspadori and Nikola Krstovic both scored against Sassuolo before Gianluca Scamacca found the net against Hapoel Tel Aviv. However, Sarri’s side managed only two home wins against top-10 finishers last term, demonstrating that clean sheets against higher-tier opponents remain rare. Given Atalanta’s high xG concession and Bologna’s strong away record, the conditions align for both teams to find the net within 90 minutes.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Atalanta allowed Sassuolo 2.7 expected goals while producing 0.88 expected goals in their Serie A opener.
- Bologna won 10 away league matches last season, only surpassed by Serie A's top two.
- Atalanta defenders Thomas Kristensen and Isak Hien are sidelined due to injury.
Risk Factor: This selection loses if either team fails to score, such as in a 0-0 draw or a clean-sheet win.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Won 10 away league games last season and four of their last five visits to Atalanta across competitions.
Conceded 2.7 xG to Sassuolo in their league opener while missing central defenders Kristensen and Hien.
⚔️ Pick 2: Atalanta vs Bologna 1-1 @ 11/2
A 1-1 draw reflects the balance between Atalanta’s individual finishing and Bologna’s away efficiency. Atalanta scored twice against Sassuolo despite managing only 0.88 expected goals, with Giacomo Raspadori and Nikola Krstovic converting their opportunities. Gianluca Scamacca also demonstrated his readiness by scoring off the bench against Hapoel Tel Aviv after a goalless first leg. These options give the hosts sufficient capability to register a single goal, even if their overall chance creation remains limited under Maurizio Sarri’s early setup.
Bologna’s baseline away performance supports their ability to match that single strike. Domenico Tedesco’s team secured 10 away victories last season and created multiple opportunities against Lazio despite falling to a 1-0 defeat. Furthermore, Bologna have won four of their last five away fixtures against Atalanta across all competitions, including a 1-0 victory in their most recent visit through a Riccardo Orsolini goal. With Roberto Piccoli favoured in attack due to match fitness, the visitors possess enough threat to breach an Atalanta defence missing Thomas Kristensen and Isak Hien.
This exact scoreline remains vulnerable to late defensive lapses or clinical finishing beyond expected levels. Atalanta conceded 2.7 expected goals against Sassuolo, meaning a second Bologna goal is a distinct possibility if defensive gaps persist. Conversely, should Sarri’s side find greater attacking fluency, a home win could materialize. Nevertheless, a 1-1 outcome accounts for both Atalanta’s defensive vulnerabilities and Bologna’s strong away pedigree without expecting either side to dominate.
Risk Factor: A 1-1 scoreline fails if either side scores twice or if one goalkeeper keeps a clean sheet.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Both Teams To Score YES mean for Atalanta vs Bologna?
Both Teams To Score YES wins if both teams score at least once during regular time plus stoppage.
How does the Correct Score market work for a 1-1 prediction?
A Correct Score bet on 1-1 wins only if the match ends exactly 1-1 after 90 minutes plus stoppage.
Why is Atalanta's xG concession against Sassuolo relevant?
Conceding 2.7 expected goals shows Atalanta allowed high-quality chances, aiding Bologna's scoring chances.
How does Bologna's away record support the main selection?
Bologna's 10 away wins last season support their ability to score against Atalanta's weakened defence.
Do injuries to Kristensen and Hien affect Atalanta's defence?
Their injuries reduce Atalanta's defensive depth, increasing vulnerability to conceding goals.
What happens to these bets if the match goes into extra time?
Bets settle strictly on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage; extra time goals don't count.
