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Atalanta crestAtalanta
v
Bologna crestBologna

Serie A | Sun 17 May, 17:00

Atalanta v Bologna Stats

Data last updated: Sun 07 Jun 2026, 08:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atalanta face Bologna in Serie A on Sun 17 May, 17:00. Atalanta have conceded just 14 goals in 18 home Serie A matches this season, averaging only 0.78 goals conceded per game at the Gewiss Stadium.

BT4Y best bet

Line could begin to wobble under sustained pressure

  • At 11/2, Atalanta Win implies roughly 15%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 35%.
  • Defensive Stability: Home Conceded Record
  • Bologna have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Atalanta.
  • Bologna have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Atalanta Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Atalanta sit 7 in the table, while Bologna sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 35% for Atalanta Win sits against roughly 15% implied by the current price. Bologna have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Atalanta. Defensive Stability: Home Conceded Record

Model chance vs price35% model chance against roughly 15% implied
Strong positive
Bologna have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Bologna have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Defensive Stability: Home Conceded RecordArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Atalanta Win is the preferred angle because defensive Stability: Home Conceded Record Bologna have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Atalanta. It was not perfect — Atalanta nearly turned comfort into catastrophe late on — but there was finally some sharpness and conviction in attack.

Main risk

It was not perfect — Atalanta nearly turned comfort into catastrophe late on — but there was finally some sharpness and conviction in attack.

Key Data Signals

Atalanta Win evidence

Defensive Stability: Home Conceded Record

Bologna have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Atalanta.

Bologna have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Atalanta Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Atalanta sit 7 in the table, while Bologna sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Atalanta Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Atalanta6.6
    Avg corners for
    Bologna4.8
    Atalanta10
    Avg total corners
    Bologna10.4
    Atalanta1.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Bologna1.2
    Atalanta14.4
    Avg shots
    Bologna10.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +5.8 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    Serie A hubfull betting preview for Atalanta v Bolognacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Atalanta1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Bologna1
    Atalanta1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Bologna1.2
    Atalanta60%
    BTTS rate
    Bologna20%
    Atalanta40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Bologna20%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 46% · edge +20.5 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 51%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAtalanta to WinBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 60% · edge -24.8 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 66%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Atalanta Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Atalanta to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Atalanta

    WDLDL
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 4D 3L
    10 May 2026A AC Milan3-2
    02 May 2026H Genoa0-0
    27 Apr 2026A Cagliari2-3
    18 Apr 2026A AS Roma1-1
    11 Apr 2026H Juventus0-1

    Bologna

    WDLLW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 1D 4L
    11 May 2026A Napoli3-2
    03 May 2026H Cagliari0-0
    25 Apr 2026H AS Roma0-2
    19 Apr 2026A Juventus0-2
    12 Apr 2026H Lecce2-0
    Market aligned with main pickAtalanta to WinBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 60% · edge -24.8 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Atalanta Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 63%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Atalanta wins
    2Draws
    4Bologna wins
    07 Jan 2026Bologna v Atalanta0-2
    13 Apr 2025Atalanta v Bologna2-0
    04 Feb 2025Atalanta v Bologna0-1
    28 Sep 2024Bologna v Atalanta1-1
    03 Mar 2024Atalanta v Bologna1-2
    23 Dec 2023Bologna v Atalanta1-0
    Market aligned with main pickAtalanta to WinBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 60% · edge -24.8 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Atalanta to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Atalanta38
    Played
    Bologna38
    Atalanta1.3
    Avg goals for
    Bologna1.3
    Atalanta0.9
    Avg goals against
    Bologna1.2
    Atalanta13
    Clean sheets
    Bologna12
    Market aligned with main pickAtalanta to WinBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 60% · edge -24.8 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Atalanta Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Season data supports Atalanta to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    7Atalanta59381514915
    8Bologna5638168143
    Atalanta sit in position 7, while Bologna sit in position 8, so table pressure belongs in the Atalanta Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Atalanta Over 2.5
    20%Bologna Over 2.5
    1.7H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Atalanta sit at 40% and Bologna sit at 20% with the H2H average at 1.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Atalanta v Bologna prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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