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Can Motherwell’s control at Fir Park defuse St Mirren’s set-piece threat? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Motherwell are in superb form at Fir Park, where they have kept six consecutive clean sheets. Their recent 2-0 win over Celtic demonstrates they can handle high-pressure situations. St Mirren have struggled for consistency away from home, winning just once on their travels this season. Tactically, Motherwell's strength in wide areas should exploit St Mirren's defensive weakness against wing-based attacks. While the visitors are a threat from set pieces, Motherwell’s superior ball retention and conversion rate should see them secure all three points in this New Year fixture.
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This scoreline mirrors Motherwell's most recent results, including their statement 2-0 victory over Celtic. Given that the home side has not conceded a goal in their last six league matches at Fir Park, a clean sheet is a high-probability component of the final score. St Mirren’s statistical weakness in finishing suggests they will struggle to break Motherwell's defensive resolve. A 2-0 result accounts for Motherwell's efficient scoring rate and their ability to maintain control once they are ahead, despite some listed weaknesses in protecting leads.
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Motherwell vs St Mirren Predictions and Best Bets
Motherwell vs St Mirren — William Hill Market Snapshot
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Motherwell’s fortress at Fir Park and clean sheet record give them the edge, while St Mirren’s finishing issues impact their win probability.
Defensive stability at Fir Park points toward low-conceding home wins or a narrow stalemate.
Recent home form for Motherwell suggests a tight contest with a lean toward the Under 2.5 market.
- Motherwell’s Fir Park platform has been spotless lately: six straight home Premiership clean sheets, alongside 59.1% possession and 85.7% pass success across the league season.
- St Mirren fire plenty but don’t always hit the target outcome: 12.6 shots per game in the Premiership, yet only 16 goals from 18 matches, matching a “very weak” finishing profile.
- Motherwell’s attacking output has multiple sources: Tawanda Maswanhise has 8 league goals and Apostolos Stamatelopoulos has 6, helping drive 28 goals in 20 Premiership matches.
Technical Control: Average Possession
The possession numbers reflect how much of the ball each side typically sees, highlighting Motherwell’s preference for a structured build-up.
Combined with an 85.7% pass success rate, this suggests a side comfortable dictating the tempo of the game.
A lower share of the ball indicates a team more focused on quick transitions and direct attacking phases.
Home Stability: Fir Park Clean Sheets
A look at how effectively the home defence has completely shut out opposing attacks in front of their own fans.
This remarkable run highlights a defensive unit that has turned their home stadium into a goal-free zone for visitors.
Despite taking 12.6 shots per game, the total output suggests difficulty in converting volume into goals.
Motherwell’s first job of the New Year is to make sure the Celtic result doesn’t become a lovely story that fades into the background. A 2-0 win over the champions is a statement however you dress it up, and it sets the tone for Saturday afternoon at Fir Park against St Mirren. The league context sharpens it further: Motherwell are fourth in the Scottish Premiership with 33 points, eight behind Hearts at the top, with Hearts having played a game less. St Mirren, meanwhile, are 10th with 18 points and nine clear of the relegation zone.
Form lines don’t always travel neatly from one fixture to the next, but Motherwell’s recent run has felt like a team that knows how it wants matches to look. They’ve beaten Livingston 3-0, edged Dundee FC 1-0, lost 1-0 at Rangers, then followed it up with that 2-0 win over Celtic. The draws either side of that stretch – 0-0 at Falkirk and 0-0 at Dundee United – add a bit of texture too. They can win ugly. They can win with control. And they can, on their day, keep the door firmly bolted.
St Mirren arrive with their own little streak of stubbornness. They drew 0-0 with Kilmarnock, beat Livingston 1-0, and only lost 2-1 at Rangers last time out. Before that, they beat Dundee United 2-0 and even put three past Celtic in a 3-1 win. So while the table has one side looking up and the other keeping half an eye behind, this has the feel of a game where both believe they can hurt the other if the match tilts their way.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Motherwell’s possible starting line-up is: Ward; O’Donnell, McGinn, Sparrow, Koutroumbis; Watt, Priestman; Fadinger, Slattery, Said; Stamatelopoulos. That suggests a back four in front of Calum Ward, with Stephen O’Donnell and John Koutroumbis as full-backs and Paul McGinn operating centrally. The midfield structure looks like a double pivot with Elliot Watt and Oscar Priestman, then a three behind Apostolos Stamatelopoulos.
Even just reading the names, you can see where the balance might come from. Watt sits naturally as a controller and disruptor, while the line behind Stamatelopoulos gives Motherwell a spread of options: Lukas Fadinger and Callum Slattery can link and arrive into pockets, and Ibrahim Said offers a more direct wide threat.
St Mirren’s possible starting line-up is: George; Fraser, King, Freckleton; McMenamin, Phillips, Gogic, Idowu, John; N’Lundulu, Ayunga. That points towards a back three in front of Shamal George, wing-backs providing the width, and a two-man forward line. Alex Gogic anchors the middle, with Killian Phillips adding legs and presence, while Declan John offers delivery and balance from the left side.
On availability, one detail is explicit: A. Oxborough is listed as injured with a hand injury. No end date is given. Beyond that, the selection picture is framed through “possible starting line-up”, so the tactical preview has to live within those boundaries.
How the Match Could Be Played
This one sets up as a clash between Motherwell’s preference for the ball and St Mirren’s willingness to make the game feel uncomfortable. Motherwell are described as playing short passes and possession football, with a hefty 59.1% average possession and an 85.7% pass success rate in the league. That isn’t just “having the ball for the sake of it”; it’s a sign they can keep it clean and keep opponents running.
But St Mirren aren’t painted as passengers. Their style points towards controlling the game in the opposition’s half, attempting crosses often, using long balls, and attacking through the middle while taking a lot of shots. That can sound contradictory at first glance, yet it makes sense if you imagine St Mirren pushing the pitch up when they can, then playing direct into the front when the moment’s on. With Dan N’Lundulu and Jonah Ayunga listed together up top, there’s a natural platform for early passes into the forwards, second balls, and quick support runs from midfield.
The wide areas look like a key tension point. Motherwell’s strengths include attacking down the wings and creating chances using through balls, and their style explicitly mentions attacking down the right. That hints at repeated efforts to progress down one flank and then either slip runners in behind or pull the defence around with quick combinations. Against a St Mirren back three, that could mean trying to isolate a wing-back, drag a wide centre-back out, and then hit the space that opens.
St Mirren, however, are flagged as weak defending against attacks down the wings and weak defending against counter attacks. Those two weaknesses can become one big problem if Motherwell force turnovers and break into the channels quickly. If Motherwell can draw St Mirren forward and then play through them with one or two crisp passes, they can get at a defence that’s trying to reset on the move.
At the same time, Motherwell have their own soft spots that invite a response. They’re very weak in aerial duels and weak at protecting the lead, while St Mirren are strong at attacking set pieces and strong at shooting from direct free kicks. That combination matters because it suggests St Mirren can stay in matches through set-play pressure even if Motherwell have more of the ball. It also means Motherwell’s defending in their own box – particularly under crosses and dead-ball deliveries – could be a decisive battleground.
The middle of the pitch could be more feisty than pretty. Motherwell are described as non-aggressive, yet their opponents “play aggressively against them”, and St Mirren’s midfield includes Gogic, who racks up bookings and aerial work, plus Phillips, who plays a lot. Motherwell’s likely double pivot of Watt and Priestman sets up an interesting choice: do they keep it patient and positional, or do they take risks to break St Mirren’s midfield line early? If they keep it slow, St Mirren can hold shape and aim to win set pieces and transitions. If they force it, Motherwell’s own weakness “stopping opponents from creating chances” becomes relevant, because risky passes can become giveaways.
And then there’s the finishing element. Motherwell are rated strong at finishing scoring chances, while St Mirren are rated very weak in that area. That doesn’t mean chances won’t arrive at both ends; it does hint that the match might be decided by who makes more of the moments they do create.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Motherwell’s league numbers point to a side with both control and output. They’ve scored 28 goals in 20 Premiership matches and average 12.2 shots per game, which speaks to regular chance creation rather than the odd smash-and-grab. The possession and pass completion back that up: 59.1% possession with 85.7% pass success suggests they can build attacks reliably, recycle pressure, and keep opponents pinned for spells.
There’s also a defensive thread worth noting. In Motherwell’s last six home Premiership matches, they’ve kept a clean sheet in all six. That’s an extraordinary platform at Fir Park and it frames Saturday’s challenge: St Mirren will need to find ways to disrupt that rhythm, whether through set pieces, direct attacks, or forcing Motherwell into the individual errors that come from being hassled for 90 minutes.
St Mirren’s league profile is different. They’ve played 18 Premiership matches, scored 16, and take 12.6 shots per game. That’s a fascinating contrast: the shot volume is there, but the goals aren’t matching it. It aligns perfectly with their “very weak” finishing label. For this match, it matters because St Mirren may be able to generate attempts — particularly from crosses, long balls, and second phases — but they’ll need someone to turn those moments into actual damage.
St Mirren’s pass success is 74.0% with 44.1% possession, so they’re less about long controlled spells and more about picking moments. Their aerials won number (20.1) is notably higher than Motherwell’s (13.7), and that detail feeds straight into the tactical narrative: if St Mirren can make this a contest of duels, second balls, and deliveries, they are playing into an area Motherwell don’t love.
The table context is also clear. Motherwell’s 33 points from 20 games puts them fourth, while St Mirren’s 18 points from 18 games places them 10th. That doesn’t decide a derby of emotions — this isn’t that — but it does explain why Motherwell will want to impose their style early and why St Mirren might be content to stay in it and grow into the contest.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first moment is how Motherwell’s right-sided focus meets St Mirren’s left flank. Motherwell’s style points to attacking down the right, and St Mirren’s weaknesses include defending against attacks down the wings. If Motherwell can consistently find that route and get quality balls into the box, Stamatelopoulos will live for it — especially with his six league goals arriving from limited minutes.
The second moment is set-piece gravity. St Mirren are strong at attacking set pieces and shooting from direct free kicks, while Motherwell are very weak in aerial duels. That’s the sort of tactical mismatch that can keep an underdog in a match even when open play isn’t going their way. A couple of corners. A couple of free kicks. Suddenly you’re defending your six-yard box with your heart in your mouth.
The third moment is game state management. Motherwell are flagged as weak at protecting the lead, and St Mirren are also marked weak in that department. If someone goes ahead, it may not settle anything; it may just change the type of chaos. Motherwell’s clean-sheet run at home suggests they can control matches defensively, but St Mirren’s shot volume suggests they’ll still have moments. The team that stays calm when the match changes shape could be the one that finishes with the better story.
What could go wrong with this read? The margins here are small. If Motherwell’s possession becomes sterile, St Mirren can turn the game into set pieces and transitions. If St Mirren create chances but their finishing problems show up again, they might leave themselves open to one sharp Motherwell move that decides it. And if the match becomes a duel-heavy scrap, plans can melt and it comes down to who wins the next header, the next second ball, the next moment of concentration.
Best Bet for Motherwell vs St Mirren
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Motherwell to win
Motherwell enter this fixture as the form team in the Scottish Premiership outside of the top two. Sitting in fourth place with 33 points, they have built their season on a remarkable defensive solidity at Fir Park. They have kept a clean sheet in six of their last seven league matches, including each of their last six at home. This run was capped off by a commanding 2-0 victory over the champions, Celtic, in their most recent outing. The defensive unit has turned their home ground into a fortress where opponents find it nearly impossible to break through.
The tactical matchup also heavily favors the home side. Motherwell are particularly strong at attacking down the wings and creating chances through through balls. This aligns directly with a specific defensive vulnerability for St Mirren, who are identified as being weak at defending against attacks from wide areas. Motherwell’s preference for a possession-based game—averaging 59.1% of the ball with a high pass completion rate—will likely see them control the tempo, forcing a St Mirren side that often struggles to finish their chances into a reactive stance.
St Mirren, while recently successful in the League Cup, have found domestic away trips difficult this season, managing only one win on the road. They take a high volume of shots but are statistically very weak at converting them into goals. Against a Motherwell defense that hasn’t conceded a home goal in months, this lack of clinical finishing is likely to be the deciding factor. Furthermore, Motherwell have shown they can win in different ways; they can dominate 3-0 as they did against Livingston or grind out a 1-0 result as seen against Dundee. Given their current momentum and the specific tactical edges they hold in wide areas, the home win is the most logical outcome.
What could go wrong
While Motherwell are strong favorites, they are weak in aerial duels, whereas St Mirren are strong at attacking set pieces. If the visitors can win free kicks in dangerous areas or earn a high number of corners, they have the physical profile to bypass Motherwell’s open-play dominance. Additionally, if the match becomes an aggressive scrap, Motherwell’s non-aggressive style might see them lose control of the midfield battle.
Correct score lean
Motherwell 2-0 St Mirren
The 2-0 scoreline is highly consistent with Motherwell’s recent home trajectory. They have secured 2-0 victories in three of their last five home league games, including the high-profile win over Celtic just days ago. Their defensive record is the primary driver here; having kept six consecutive home clean sheets, it is difficult to see a St Mirren side that is “very weak” at finishing breaking that streak. With Motherwell averaging 1.4 goals per game and St Mirren struggling for output on their travels, a two-goal margin reflects the gulf in current league efficiency.
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