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Can Motherwell’s Fir Park resilience disrupt Celtic’s drive for control? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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The historical data for this fixture strongly favors goals at both ends, with five of the last six meetings seeing both teams score. Celtic enters the match as the league’s highest scorers, averaging nearly two goals per game, while Motherwell has been consistent at Fir Park, scoring in eight of their nine home league matches this season. Celtic’s recent defensive record on the road also shows they are susceptible to conceding, having recently let in two goals against Livingston. This combination of high-powered attacks and occasional defensive lapses makes the BTTS market a logical choice.
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Celtic’s dominance in this fixture is undeniable, having won the last 10 away Premiership meetings against Motherwell. However, the home side is currently fourth in the table and has shown they can compete with the top teams, as evidenced by their narrow 3-2 defeat to Celtic in October. A 2-1 scoreline reflects Celtic’s status as favorites and their superior offensive stats, while also respecting Motherwell’s strong home record and the likelihood of them scoring at least once, consistent with the main tip’s analysis of both teams finding the net.
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Motherwell vs Celtic Predictions and Best Bets
Motherwell vs Celtic — William Hill Market Snapshot
Market snapshots with implied probabilities from listed William Hill odds.
Celtic arrive as visitors with a dominant record in this fixture, though Motherwell’s home form creates a competitive outlook.
Recent head-to-head history suggests high-scoring affairs are common when these two meet at Fir Park.
- Fir Park has been a fortress recently: Motherwell have kept a clean sheet in their last five home Premiership matches, shaping a game where Celtic may need patience and precision.
- Celtic’s league control shows in both ball and volume: they average 70.6% possession and 17.4 shots per game in the Premiership, a mix that can pin opponents back for long spells.
- The backdrop is daunting for the hosts: Celtic are listed as undefeated in their last 31 league games against Motherwell and have won their last 10 away Premiership meetings in this fixture.
Attacking Volume: Premiership Shot Averages
A comparison of the offensive frequency between both sides across the current league campaign.
The home side maintains a steady output, successfully netting 26 goals from 19 fixtures.
Celtic dominate territory, resulting in the highest shooting frequency in the division.
Ball Control: Average Possession
Visualising the typical share of the ball each team controls during league play.
Despite their high possession, they face a team that typically commands even more of the ball.
The visitors’ style focuses on pinning opponents back through sustained periods of control.
Motherwell don’t get much time to lick their wounds. A midweek loss at Rangers has barely faded into the rear-view mirror before Celtic roll into Fir Park for another Scottish Premiership examination.
The league table adds its own edge. Motherwell sit fourth with 30 points from 19 matches, while Celtic are second on 38 from 18. There’s a clear gap, but not an unbridgeable one if the home side can turn Fir Park into the kind of place visiting teams wish they’d brought a packed lunch and a sleeping bag.
And there’s a familiar feel to this fixture, too. Celtic have had the better of it for a while, and recent meetings have tended to bring goals. That doesn’t guarantee fireworks this time, but it does hint at a game that rarely stays polite for long.
Motherwell’s recent results suggest a side that can be awkward, organised, and stubborn — especially at home — while Celtic’s own sequence has swung between sharp domestic outings and bruising setbacks. Put it together and you get a contest where control, patience and the timing of key moments could matter as much as any grand plan.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Motherwell’s possible XI reads: Ward; O’Donnell, McGinn, Welsh, Longelo; Watt, Fadinger; Sparrow, Slattery, Said; Stamatelopoulos.
That points strongly towards the 4-2-3-1 shape they’ve used most often, with Elliot Watt and Lukas Fadinger as the double pivot behind a line of three, and Apostolos Stamatelopoulos as the central striker. In that set-up, there’s a natural balance between short-passing control and quick ways to threaten: Longelo offers end product from the left side of the back line, while Slattery and Sparrow can help link midfield to the front.
Celtic’s possible XI is: Schmeichel; Ralston, Trusty, Tierney; Hyun-Jun, Engels, McGregor, McCowan; Nygren, Maeda; Kenny.
That team sheet leans into a Celtic side happy to dominate territory and possession, and it also matches their commonly used 4-3-3. Callum McGregor anchors the midfield, with Arne Engels and Luke McCowan offering legs and passing options either side. Ahead of them, Benjamin Nygren and Daizen Maeda provide direct running and shot volume, while Johnny Kenny leads the line.
There’s also a small but important footnote in the squad information: E. Sule is listed as out with an unknown injury until 12.01.2026, while A. Oxborough has a hand injury with no return date specified. That naturally shapes Motherwell’s options, even if the likely XI suggests they still have a coherent structure to go with.
How the Match Could Be Played
This has the feel of a game where the first decision is about space.
Motherwell’s listed strengths include creating chances with through balls and individual skill, and they’re described as strong down the wings — particularly attacking down the right — with short passes and possession football. Against Celtic, that can’t just mean neat triangles for the sake of it. It has to mean purposeful possession: drawing pressure, then slipping runners in behind, or working wide to create delivery for Stamatelopoulos.
Celtic, meanwhile, are described as controlling games in the opposition’s half, using short passes, attempting through balls often, and attacking down the left. If both sides want to play, the midfield zones become a proper scrap: McGregor’s calm distribution versus Motherwell’s double pivot, with the question of who gets to turn and face forward.
Out of possession, the styles hint at a slightly counter-intuitive dynamic. Both sides are tagged as non-aggressive, and both rotate their first eleven. That doesn’t mean passive football, but it does suggest the pressing might be more situational than constant. If Celtic push their line high to keep Motherwell penned in, the offside trap element in their profile becomes relevant — and so does Motherwell’s listed weakness of avoiding offside (very weak). That’s a tactical pressure point: if Motherwell try to run in behind too early or too straight, they risk killing their own attacks before they’ve even started.
Where Motherwell can make it awkward is in the wide areas and in moments of transition. Their wing play and through-ball threat are exactly the tools you’d pick to test a side that wants to play in your half. If Sparrow and Slattery can receive on the half-turn and find Said or a full-back quickly, Celtic’s defenders may find themselves defending the kind of sudden, angled attacks that don’t allow a neat reset.
Celtic’s route feels clearer: sustained possession, overloads on their left, and quick combinations to release runners like Maeda and Nygren into shooting positions. With Tierney in the side, the left flank can become a conveyor belt — support run, cut-back, recycled possession, repeat until something cracks. Motherwell’s ability to defend set pieces is listed as strong, which matters if Celtic end up creating a steady stream of corners and wide free-kicks rather than clean openings.
The other tension is aerially. Motherwell are listed as weak in aerial duels, while Celtic’s squad data shows strong aerial numbers among defenders like Liam Scales, Cameron Carter-Vickers and Auston Trusty. That could shape both boxes: Celtic attacking set pieces with real intent, and Celtic’s back line feeling comfortable dealing with direct play into Stamatelopoulos — unless Motherwell can drag them into uncomfortable zones with movement and second balls.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The table position is a headline in itself: Motherwell’s 30 points from 19 versus Celtic’s 38 from 18. It’s not just a gap; it’s a hint at the game state Celtic will expect to impose.
Celtic’s volume is stark in the Premiership: 17.4 shots per game and 33 goals in 18. That’s a side that shoots often, shoots from good areas, and generally spends matches asking the same question again and again until the opponent gives the wrong answer.
Motherwell’s numbers show a team that can still create: 12.2 shots per game and 26 goals in 19. That output matters because it suggests they don’t have to play for scraps; they can build threats of their own, especially if their passing base holds up (their Premiership pass success is listed at 85.6%).
Possession is another clue. Celtic’s Premiership possession sits at 70.6%, compared to Motherwell’s 60.0%. Both like the ball, but Celtic tend to take it off you and keep it. That’s why Motherwell’s home defensive trend stands out: they’ve kept a clean sheet in their last five home Premiership matches. It suggests they can absorb pressure at Fir Park — and do it without collapsing into chaos.
Head-to-head trends also shape the psychology: Celtic are listed as undefeated against Motherwell in their last 31 league games, and have won their last 10 away Premiership encounters against them. Whether that’s a weight or a motivator depends on the night, but it’s part of the backdrop.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big moment might be deceptively simple: who lands the first clean midfield pass under pressure. If Motherwell can play through Watt and Fadinger and find Slattery between lines, Fir Park will start to believe in the idea of this being more than a siege. If Celtic’s midfield smothers those first connections, it becomes a game played mostly in Ward’s postcode.
Keep an eye on the wide duels, particularly where Celtic want to attack down the left and Motherwell want to attack down the right. That’s where repeated sprints, recovery runs and small positional errors can add up. One mistimed step can become a cut-back; one clipped pass can become a break.
Set pieces could be a quiet decider. Motherwell are described as strong at defending them, and Celtic are also described as strong at defending set pieces — which might sound like a stalemate. But if the match turns into a steady pattern of corners and free-kicks, the side that wins second balls and keeps attacks alive can turn “good defending” into “eventually something drops”.
Then there’s the sharp-end contribution. Nygren has 8 league goals, Maeda has 6, and Kenny has 4; Motherwell’s top scorers include Maswanhise on 8 and Stamatelopoulos on 6. Those are the players most likely to turn a half-chance into the kind of moment everyone remembers on the walk home.
What could go wrong with this read? A lot, honestly. Football doesn’t always reward the team with the clearest patterns. An early goal can flip the entire script, an offside call can kill momentum, and one messy passage — a misplaced short pass, a ricochet in the box — can make all the careful talk about control and territory look a bit silly.
Best Bet for Motherwell vs Celtic
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Both Teams to Score
The trend for goals in this fixture is difficult to ignore. Recent encounters between these two clubs have consistently produced action at both ends, including a five-goal thriller in October where Celtic narrowly won 3-2. That match saw Motherwell take a lead early in the second half before a late comeback from the visitors, proving that the home side has the tactical tools to breach the Celtic defense. In fact, five of the last six meetings between these teams have seen both sides find the net, suggesting that while the visitors often dominate the scoreline, they rarely do so with a clean sheet.
Motherwell’s offensive output supports this selection. They have averaged 12.2 shots per game and have scored 26 goals in 19 league matches. Their ability to create chances through through balls and individual skill on the wings is a primary strength, particularly with Apostolos Stamatelopoulos leading the line. On the other side, Celtic’s attacking metrics are the highest in the division; they average 17.4 shots per game and have already notched 33 goals. Their recent domestic form is characterized by high-scoring affairs, such as their 4-2 victory over Livingston and 3-1 win against Aberdeen.
While Motherwell has shown defensive resilience at home recently, the specific threat posed by Celtic’s direct runners like Daizen Maeda and Benjamin Nygren is a significant step up in quality. Conversely, Celtic’s defensive line has shown vulnerability under pressure, conceding multiple goals in several recent away fixtures. Given that Motherwell has scored in 8 of their 9 home matches and Celtic has found the net in 7 of their 9 away trips, the conditions are ripe for a contest where neither goalkeeper finishes with a clean sheet.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection is a tactical shift towards a more passive, low-block approach from the home side. If Motherwell decides to prioritize defensive shape over their usual possession-based game to frustrate the visitors, the match could transform into a one-sided affair where they fail to register on the scoresheet. Additionally, Motherwell’s listed weakness in avoiding offsides could see promising counter-attacks cut short by the assistant’s flag, limiting their scoring opportunities against a high Celtic line.
Correct score lean
Motherwell 1-2 Celtic
A 2-1 victory for the visitors aligns with the statistical probabilities and the recent history of this matchup. Celtic have won 10 consecutive away league games at Fir Park, and their current momentum under Wilfried Nancy points toward another three points. However, Motherwell’s ability to score at home and their previous 3-2 battle with the champions earlier this season suggests they will not go down without a fight. The 1-2 scoreline reflects Celtic’s superior shot volume and depth while acknowledging Motherwell’s consistent ability to find the net in front of their home fans.
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