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Can Livingston’s aggression overwhelm Kilmarnock’s counter-attacking threat in a relegation scrap? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Both teams are defensively fragile, with Livingston conceding 40 goals and Kilmarnock 38 this season. Livingston has not kept a clean sheet since September, and their previous encounter ended in a 2-2 draw. Both sides possess attacking strengths that exploit the other's defensive weaknesses, particularly in wide areas and set pieces.
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Kilmarnock have a superior head-to-head record, having gone unbeaten in the last six league meetings against Livingston. Livingston’s defensive record is the worst in the league, and Kilmarnock have actually performed better on the road this season than at home. A narrow away win aligns with these statistical trends.
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Livingston vs Kilmarnock Predictions and Best Bets
Livingston vs Kilmarnock — Market Snapshot
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Livingston are priced as narrow home favourites despite their league position, reflecting the pressure on both basement sides.
Implied probabilities from the market suggest a moderate likelihood of both teams finding the net at the Tony Macaroni Arena.
- Livingston’s defensive problem is persistent: 40 goals conceded in 20 Premiership matches shows how often their aggressive style leaves space and punishment follows quickly.
- Kilmarnock struggle badly away from home: conceding an average of 1.90 goals per away league match explains why counter attacks have to be sharp and decisive.
- Neither side dominates possession: Livingston average 45.1% possession and Kilmarnock just 39.4%, which turns matches into transition-heavy battles rather than controlled contests.
Defensive Record: Total Goals Conceded
Both sides have struggled significantly to keep opponents out, with high concession rates defining their respective campaigns so far.
Livingston concede an average of 2.00 goals per match, highlighting major systemic issues in the defensive unit.
Kilmarnock allow 1.81 goals per match overall, but this rises to 1.90 goals conceded per game on their travels.
Ball Retention: Average Possession %
These metrics illustrate a transitional match narrative, as both teams are more comfortable without sustained spells of possession.
Livingston rely on long balls and physical contests, resulting in a 75% pass accuracy rate.
A lower possession share reflects their focus on absorbing pressure and hitting opponents on the break.
Livingston welcome Kilmarnock to The Home of the Set Fare Arena on Saturday afternoon for round 22 of the 2025–26 Scottish Premiership season, with both sides arriving bruised and badly in need of traction. Livingston come into the fixture on the back of a narrow 1–0 defeat away to Hearts, a result that fits neatly into a wider run of frustration rather than collapse. Kilmarnock arrive after a heavier blow, losing 3–1 at home to Hibernian, a match that again exposed how fragile they can look when forced to defend sustained pressure.
The league context is uncomfortable for both. Livingston sit bottom in 12th with nine points from 20 games, having conceded 40 goals and winning just once all season. Kilmarnock are only one place above in 11th with 13 points from 21 matches, conceding 38 goals. Neither side can pretend this is about momentum or form. This is about damage limitation, nerve, and whether either team can impose a clear identity for 90 minutes rather than surviving from moment to moment.
There is recent history here, and it is not kind to Livingston. They have failed to beat Kilmarnock in their last six league meetings, drawing twice and losing four. Earlier this season the sides drew 2–2 at Rugby Park, a match where Livingston led early before being dragged back into trouble. That familiar pattern hangs over this fixture again.
This is not a game that needs dressing up. It is raw, tense, and tactical in a very Scottish way. Two teams with obvious flaws, two teams that want to be aggressive, and two teams who struggle to protect themselves once the game opens up.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Livingston’s possible starting lineup is Prior; Finlayson, McGowan, Kabongolo, Kerr; Pittman, Sylla, Susoho; McLennan, May, Yengi.
That points towards a back four with Ryan McGowan and Brooklyn Kabongolo centrally, flanked by Daniel Finlayson and Kerr, with Jérôme Prior in goal. In front of them, Scott Pittman, Mohamad Sylla and Mahamadou Susoho form a compact midfield three, while Connor McLennan and Stevie May support Tete Yengi at the top end.
This shape fits Livingston’s listed identity perfectly. They play long balls, they play with width, they are aggressive, and they rely heavily on physical contests rather than extended spells of possession. Yengi is the obvious outlet. He has two league goals, wins 2.6 aerial duels per match, and offers a direct route up the pitch. May’s role is different: movement, link play, and pulling defenders away from central zones to create space for runners arriving from midfield.
Kilmarnock’s possible starting lineup is Oluwayemi; Brannan, Mayo, Schilte-Brown, Deas, D. Thompson; J. Thompson, Lyons, Polworth; Anderson, John-Jules.
That looks like a back five, with Lewis Mayo and Robbie Deas central, Dominic Thompson and Schilte-Brown as the wide defenders, and Ben Brannan included in the defensive unit. Brad Lyons and Liam Polworth sit centrally, with J. Thompson providing legs and coverage ahead of them. Bruce Anderson and Tyreece John-Jules lead the line.
This aligns with Kilmarnock’s preference for long balls, width, and counter attacks. John-Jules is their sharpest finisher on paper, with three league goals from limited minutes, while Anderson provides a more traditional reference point. The midfield pairing of Lyons and Polworth is functional rather than expansive, designed to win duels and release the ball early rather than dominate possession.
How the Match Could Be Played
This match sets up as a confrontation between two sides who are uncomfortable with the ball and far happier without it.
Livingston average just 45.1% possession in the Premiership and are weak at keeping the ball. That means their best football comes when the game is chaotic: second balls, aerial duels, loose clearances, and quick deliveries into the box. Pittman is central to that chaos. He has three league goals and two assists, and he times his forward runs well when Livingston push play wide and cross early.
The problem for Livingston is what happens once they gain a lead or territorial control. They are weak at protecting the lead, weak at defending counter attacks, and weak at defending set pieces. When they commit bodies forward, they leave space behind, and that space is exactly what Kilmarnock want to attack.
Kilmarnock’s biggest listed strength is counter attacks. They are built to absorb pressure and break quickly, using width and early passes into channels. Livingston defend poorly against attacks down the wings and play an offside trap, a risky combination against a side that attempts through balls and long passes at pace. If the timing is even slightly off, Kilmarnock will find runners in behind.
The wing areas are where this game will repeatedly catch fire. Livingston want to go wide and cross; Kilmarnock are very weak defending against attacks down the wings and very weak defending through balls. That means both teams are attacking each other’s softest zones at the same time. Expect end-to-end phases, not control.
Set pieces are another pressure point. Livingston are weak defending set pieces and very weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas. Kilmarnock are also weak defending set pieces. Corners and wide free kicks will feel like open invitations rather than restarts. One poorly defended delivery could decide the match.
The tempo will be sharp, scrappy, and often frantic. Neither side keeps the ball well enough to slow things down when they need a breather.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Livingston have scored 20 goals in 20 Premiership matches while conceding 40, an average of two conceded per game. That matters because it shows how often they are punished once the game opens up. They average 9.9 shots per match, which measures their attacking volume, but that volume does not translate into control because they also concede regularly from transitions.
Kilmarnock’s numbers tell a similar story. They have scored 19 goals in 21 league matches and conceded 38, averaging 1.81 goals conceded per game. This shows a side that creates chances but struggles to protect itself, particularly away from home, where they concede an average of 1.90 goals per away league match.
Possession figures underline why this becomes a transitional game. Livingston average 45.1% possession with 75% pass accuracy, while Kilmarnock average just 39.4% possession with 71.2% pass accuracy. Neither side builds through sustained passing. This means the ball changes hands quickly, and defensive organisation is constantly tested.
Individually, Livingston’s main goal threat comes from Jeremy Bokila with five league goals, despite not being listed in the probable XI. On the pitch, Pittman’s three goals from midfield underline how important late runs are to Livingston’s attack. For Kilmarnock, goals are spread thinly, with three each for David Watson, Tyreece John-Jules and Bruce Anderson. This lack of a dominant scorer means chances must keep coming for them to stay dangerous.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first key moment will be Livingston’s use of long balls into Yengi. If he can pin defenders and win early duels, Livingston can establish territory and force Kilmarnock deep. If he is isolated, Livingston’s attacks will fizzle out quickly.
The second is Kilmarnock’s first clean counter attack. Livingston defend counter attacks poorly, and once Kilmarnock break through the first line, the back four can become stretched and reactive.
The third is discipline around the box. Livingston are very weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas. Kilmarnock struggle defending set pieces. Every free kick and corner carries genuine danger at both ends.
The fourth is game state after the first goal. Livingston are very strong at coming back from losing positions, but weak at protecting a lead. Kilmarnock, meanwhile, struggle finishing chances. If either side scores first, the next 15 minutes will be chaotic.
What could go wrong with this read? The match could easily descend into a low-quality stalemate if both sides become risk-averse. With confidence fragile on both sides, players may default to safety rather than ambition, turning the game into a sequence of long balls and clearances rather than decisive moments.
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Both Teams to Score
Livingston and Kilmarnock enter this round 22 fixture as the two most defensively vulnerable sides in the Scottish Premiership, a fact that creates a clear path for goals at both ends. Livingston currently sit at the foot of the table and have conceded 40 goals in 20 matches, the highest tally in the division. Their inability to keep the opposition out is systemic; they have failed to register a single clean sheet in the league since mid-September. This defensive fragility is compounded by their specific weaknesses in defending set pieces and wide areas, which aligns perfectly with Kilmarnock’s tactical preference for using width and delivering early crosses into the box.
Kilmarnock are only marginally more secure, having conceded 38 goals in 21 matches. Their away form is particularly telling, as they concede an average of 1.90 goals per game on their travels. While they struggle to maintain clean sheets, they have shown a consistent ability to find the net against teams in the lower half of the table. The previous meeting between these two sides earlier this season resulted in a -2-2 draw, illustrating how their respective defensive flaws allow for high-scoring transitions.
Livingston’s primary attacking outlet, Tete Yengi, provides a physical presence that Kilmarnock’s back five often find difficult to manage in aerial duels. Conversely, Kilmarnock’s strength in counter-attacking will exploit a Livingston side that is notoriously weak at protecting leads and defending transitions. Livingston are also prone to committing fouls in dangerous areas, and with Kilmarnock possessing threats like Tyreece John-Jules and Bruce Anderson, set-piece opportunities are likely to result in high-quality chances. Given that both teams average nearly two goals conceded per game and neither side possesses the defensive discipline to shut the other out, goals for both sides is the most logical outcome.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection is a total collapse in offensive quality driven by low confidence. If both teams, fearing another defeat, adopt an overly cautious approach, the game could devolve into a sterile midfield battle defined by long balls and clearances. In such a scenario, the lack of creative composure from both squads might prevent either side from converting the limited chances they create.
Correct score lean
Livingston 1-2 Kilmarnock
This scoreline reflects the narrow edge Kilmarnock hold in recent head-to-head encounters and their superior ability to exploit Livingston’s specific defensive lapses. Livingston have failed to defeat Kilmarnock in their last six league meetings, losing four of those matches. While Livingston are strong at fighting back from losing positions, their persistent weakness in defending counter-attacks and set pieces makes it likely they will concede more than once. Kilmarnock have actually performed better on the road this season, earning seven points away compared to six at home, suggesting they have the tactical discipline to snatch a narrow victory.
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