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Can Dundee rediscover their scoring touch at Dens Park or will Livingston’s survival instincts finally spark an away-day revival? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Dundee enter this fixture having failed to score in four consecutive Premiership matches. With Livingston losing six straight away games and both sides averaging under 10 shots per match, a low-scoring tactical battle is expected given the high stakes of this relegation six-pointer.
Read Rationale ▾
Dundee have a strong historical record at home against Livingston, avoiding defeat in 12 of the last 14 meetings. Livingston’s defensive fragility away from home (54 league goals conceded) suggests Dundee can find the single goal needed to edge a nervy contest at Dens Park.
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Dundee and Livingston go head-to-head at Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park, with both clubs locked in a relegation fight that’s tightening by the week.
Dundee vs Livingston — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds.
Dundee have avoided defeat in 12 of their last 14 home league meetings with Livingston, making them strong favourites here.
Dundee’s four-game scoring drought and Livingston’s struggle away from home point towards a low-scoring Premiership relegation battle.
History suggests a low-margin Dundee win is likely, with Livingston having shipped 54 goals across the league season.
Livingston’s record of 76 yellow cards highlights an aggressive approach that could lead to frequent match interruptions.
Match Preview: Relegation Six-Pointer at Dens Park
This is the kind of fixture that makes the pitch feel smaller and the noise feel louder. Dundee and Livingston go head-to-head at Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park, with both clubs locked in a relegation fight that’s tightening by the week. Dundee sit 10th with 23 points from 25 games, while Livingston are 12th with 11 points from 26 — and there’s no hiding from the urgency on either side.
The mood around Dundee is edgy: a late-December surge brought three straight league wins, but it’s turned sour with three defeats and one draw in their last four league outings, plus a worrying blank run in front of goal. Livingston arrive battling their own crisis, winless across almost the entire league campaign and dragging a punishing away record into a 15:00 kick-off that screams “must not lose”.
A cold afternoon is on the cards too — 3° — and that often sharpens the margins: set pieces, second balls, and who stays switched on.
Defensive Stability: Season Clean Sheets
Dundee hold a significant advantage in defensive structure compared to a Livingston side that has shipped over 50 league goals.
Dundee have managed to keep double the amount of clean sheets as their opponents throughout this Premiership campaign.
Livingston have conceded 54 league goals so far, reflecting a defensive line that is frequently breached.
Discipline: Aggression Levels
The sheer volume of fouls and cards for Livingston suggests a high-pressure, physical approach to survival.
Livingston’s high foul count contributes to a league-high 76 yellow cards, often leading to defensive restarts.
Dundee display a much more composed defensive approach, committing significantly fewer fouls than Livingston.
Three Punchy Stats
- Goal Drought Alarm: Dundee haven’t scored in their last four Premiership matches, a brutal slide that makes every early chance feel twice as big.
- Away-Day Crisis: Livingston arrive on the back of six straight away defeats in the Premiership, with pressure piling on every defensive action and restart.
- Discipline Edge — or Danger: Livingston have racked up 76 yellows and 419 fouls in the league, while Dundee sit at 42 yellows and 267 fouls — a swing factor if tempers rise.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Managers
Dundee: Steven Pressley
Livingston: Marvin Bartley
Injuries / absences
No injuries or suspensions are confirmed here for either side.
Dundee — possible starting lineup
McCracken
Halliday, Astley, Graham, Wright
Congreve, Dhanda, Hamilton, Cotterill, Yogane
Murray
Livingston — possible starting lineup
Prior
Kabongolo, Wilson, McGowan
Kerr, Danso, Tait, Pittman, Finlayson
May
What the line-ups suggest
Dundee’s selection reads like a team built to get the ball wide and keep moving it forward quickly, with Congreve and Dhanda shaping play and a clear emphasis on getting service into Murray. Livingston’s group looks set up to compete physically and fight for territory, with Kerr and Finlayson offering the legs for wide work and Pittman asked to connect the middle to the front.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Dundee | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 12th |
| Points | 23 (25 games) | 11 (26 games) |
| Goals for | 19 | 26 |
| Goals against | 38 | 54 |
| Shots per game | 9.6 | 9.4 |
| Possession | 41.1% | 45.1% |
| Pass accuracy | 76.2% | 75.2% |
| Aerials won | 20.2 | 20.5 |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 3 |
| Corners (total) | 130 | 169 |
| Yellow cards (total) | 42 | 76 |
Tactical Battle
Dundee’s route: width, long shots, and fast decisions
Dundee’s identity is clear. They play with width, attack down the right, and aren’t shy about pulling the trigger from range. That can be a weapon on a cold day when the ball skids and goalkeepers hate traffic — but it also demands composure, and Dundee’s profile includes a blunt warning: finishing chances has been a problem.
The key question is whether Dundee can turn volume into quality. Their shot output sits at 9.6 per game, and they’ve got creators: Cameron Congreve leads the way with six assists, while Yan Dhanda adds craft and threat from advanced areas. But Dundee’s recent reality is harsher — four straight league matches without scoring — so the early pattern matters. If the first 15 minutes become hopeful crosses and speculative shots, Livingston will settle into the fight.
Livingston’s dilemma: aggression without chaos
Livingston bring an aggressive streak, and it shows up in the numbers. 76 yellows, 419 fouls, and a clear weakness for “avoiding fouling in dangerous areas” creates a danger zone against a side willing to go wide and deliver into the mixer. That’s the tightrope: Livingston need to disrupt Dundee’s rhythm, but can’t afford cheap free-kicks and corners when Dundee’s game is built around pressure and second balls.
There is a flip side. Livingston rate strongly for stealing the ball and for coming back from losing positions, which hints at a team that keeps swinging even when the day’s going against them. If Dundee push full-backs on and commit to wide attacks, Livingston’s best moments could come from turnovers — quick, direct breaks into the space Dundee leave behind.
The midfield squeeze: who wins the second ball wins the mood
Neither team screams “keep-ball kings”. Dundee sit at 41.1% possession, Livingston at 45.1%, and both sides win roughly 20 aerials per match. That points to a game decided in the middle third by second balls, not long spells of passing.
For Dundee, Ethan Hamilton and Dhanda have to set the tempo and keep the ball moving forward early, because Dens Park can turn restless fast when goals don’t arrive. For Livingston, Scott Pittman becomes vital as the connector — he’s chipped in with three goals and two assists across the league season — and he needs runners around him, not passengers.
Key Zones: Dundee’s right side vs Livingston’s wing defending
Dundee lean into right-sided attacking, and Livingston’s profile includes a glaring issue defending attacks down the wings and defending counter-attacks. That’s a tactical alarm bell. If Dundee can drag Livingston’s shape wide and then attack the gaps quickly — especially with early balls and runners arriving late — it forces Livingston’s defenders into decisions they’ve struggled to get right this season.
But Dundee aren’t without risk. They’re vulnerable defending counter-attacks and struggle against skillful players, and Livingston also carry that same weakness profile — meaning this could become a messy mirror-match: two teams trying to hit the same spaces, both capable of conceding the same type of chance.
Key Moments to Watch
- First goal emotional swing: Dundee’s “first goal” timing sits at 45’ on average, Livingston’s at 43’. If it’s still level late in the first half, tension could spike rather than settle.
- Set pieces and cheap fouls: Livingston’s discipline record (76 yellows) meets a side that plays wide and wins territory. One clumsy challenge near the corner flag can turn into a six-yard-box scramble.
- Corners and pressure waves: Livingston have 169 corners to Dundee’s 130. If Livingston start earning repeat set pieces, Dundee’s back line will be asked hard questions.
- Head-to-head pattern at Dens Park: Dundee haven’t lost 12 of the last 14 home league meetings with Livingston, and they’ve scored two or more in each of their last three Premiership games against them. That history can feed belief — or add weight if Dundee start slowly.
What Could Go Wrong?
For Dundee, the nightmare script is obvious: another blunt afternoon where the shot count looks fine but the net stays empty, leaving them open to a single turnover and a punch in the gut. For Livingston, it’s the opposite fear — losing shape on the wings, panicking into fouls, and conceding a soft goal that turns belief into survival mode. With both teams living on the edge, one chaotic five-minute spell could decide everything.
