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Can Spurs stop the slide at home, or will Newcastle’s set-piece threat tip this bottom-half scrap? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Spurs are leaking goals at an alarming rate, conceding 2+ in five straight games. With Romero missing and Newcastle’s superior aerial threat and shot volume, the visitors look poised to exploit a fragile defence, though Spurs’ width and crosses ensure they should also find the net.
Read Rationale ▾
Both teams have exactly 35 league goals, showcasing consistent attacking output. Newcastle’s strength at set pieces and Spurs’ defensive instability (especially without Romero) point toward a high-event game where the Magpies edge a narrow victory in a tactical bottom-half battle.
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Tottenham’s winless league run meets a Newcastle side leaking goals too, with both teams desperate to wrestle back momentum.
Tottenham vs Newcastle — Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on analysis.
Spurs’ winless run and defensive leaks suggest Newcastle’s higher shot volume may give them a slight edge in this tight contest.
Spurs have conceded 2+ in five straight matches while both sides have 35 goals already, suggesting a high-scoring game is likely.
Spurs’ defensive ditch and Newcastle’s chance volume suggest a high-event outcome like a 2-1 visitor victory is plausible.
Newcastle win 17.8 aerials per game to Spurs’ 14.8, giving the Magpies a significant edge on attacking set pieces.
Match Preview
- Defence in a ditch: Tottenham have conceded 2+ goals in five straight Premier League matches, and they’ve failed to win any of their last seven league games.
- Same pain, different colours: Both Tottenham and Newcastle sit on 10 Premier League defeats already, meaning this fixture puts an 11th loss right on the table.
- Chance volume vs chaos: Newcastle average 12.9 shots per league game to Spurs’ 10.9, but both have 35 league goals—plenty of punch, not enough control.
Attacking Intent: Shots per League Game
Newcastle’s offensive volume is currently more active than Tottenham’s, creating a gap in how often keepers are tested.
Spurs focus on width and crosses but currently average fewer attempts than the league’s most frequent shooters.
The Magpies look for openings more frequently, often through long shots and right-sided build-ups.
Physical Edge: Aerial Duels Won
Newcastle’s dominance in the air is a key component of their tactical profile, especially at both ends of the pitch.
Missing Cristian Romero removes an aggressive organiser who contributes to these duels.
This aerial advantage makes Newcastle very strong on attacking set pieces, a persistent threat this season.
This has the feel of a fixture where nerves show early and someone cracks late. Tottenham’s brief Premier League uptick ended with a grim afternoon at Old Trafford: a 2–0 defeat to Manchester United, a red card, and another injury worry. Now Thomas Frank’s Spurs are staring at the wrong end of the table, only six points above 18th-placed West Ham United, and the pressure is real.
Newcastle aren’t strolling in with swagger either. Eddie Howe’s side were beaten 3–2 by Brentford last time out, and their recent run reads like a team that can score but can’t protect itself. Tuesday at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium brings a straight-up bottom-half collision — sharp edges, fragile confidence, and two teams desperate to wrestle back momentum.
Kick-off is at 19:30.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Injuries & Absences
- Tottenham: Cristian Romero was sent off at Manchester United (record-equalling red card) and is unavailable.
- Tottenham: Destiny Udogie suffered an injury at Old Trafford (fitness unclear beyond that).
- Newcastle: no specific injuries or suspensions listed.
Managers
- Tottenham Hotspur: Thomas Frank
- Newcastle United: Eddie Howe
Probable Lineups
Tottenham (possible XI): Vicario; Gray, Dragusin, Van de Ven, Souza; Sarr, Palhinha, Gallagher; Simons, Solanke, Kolo Muani
Newcastle (possible XI): Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Tonali, Guimaraes, Ramsey; Elanga, Woltemade, Barnes
Tactical Implications
- No Romero strips Spurs of an aggressive organiser and a set-piece threat — and with Tottenham already “very weak” defending skilful players, that matters.
- Newcastle’s spine looks set: Tonali and Bruno Guimarães can run the central lanes, while Woltemade gives them a focal point to play into.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Tottenham | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| League games played | 25 | 25 |
| League goals scored | 35 | 35 |
| Shots per game (League) | 10.9 | 12.9 |
| Possession % (League) | 50.6% | 53.7% |
| Pass % (League) | 81.9% | 83.8% |
| Aerials won (League) | 14.8 | 17.8 |
| Red cards (League squad totals) | Romero 2, Simons 1 | Burn 1, Gordon 1 |
This looks like a game of fine margins and ugly moments. Newcastle carry more aerial power and shoot more often; Spurs are closer to 50-50 possession but carry the kind of error profile that turns one bad decision into a long night. Both have the same league goal return, so it’s less about who can score and more about who can stay switched on when the match tilts.
Tactical Battle
Spurs: width, crosses, and a need to simplify
Tottenham’s identity under Frank leans into width: they attempt crosses often, they attack down the wings, and they try to win the ball back aggressively. In theory, that suits a front line with runners like Xavi Simons and a box presence in Dominic Solanke.
But Spurs have two loud problems hanging over this fixture. First, they’re “very weak” at avoiding individual errors. Second, they’re “very weak” at defending skilful players. That combination makes games feel like tightropes — one loose touch in build-up, one missed duel, and suddenly they’re chasing.
Expect Spurs to push the ball wide early and try to create chaos in Newcastle’s area through repeated deliveries and second balls. If João Palhinha and Conor Gallagher start together, Spurs should have enough energy in midfield to keep the press alive and win territory. The question is whether they can turn those moments into clean chances instead of hopeful balls.
Newcastle: right-sided focus, set-piece muscle, and counter-punch intent
Newcastle’s profile is clearer than people give them credit for. They like width, they attack down the right, they take long shots, and they’re very strong on attacking set pieces. Against a Spurs side missing Romero and already leaking 2+ goals per league match for five games in a row, Newcastle will fancy every dead ball as a chance to land a blow.
There’s a danger for Howe’s side too, though: they’re “very weak” defending counter-attacks and “weak” at protecting the lead. That invites a messy pattern—Newcastle push up, Spurs steal it, and the match becomes a sprint. If Spurs can pin Kieran Trippier and Lewis Hall deep, they can stop Newcastle’s wide build and force them into longer, riskier passes.
The key duel: Spurs’ wide threat vs Newcastle’s aerial edge
On paper, Spurs want the ball wide and in early; Newcastle want those same deliveries because they back themselves in the air. With Newcastle winning 17.8 aerials per game to Spurs’ 14.8, the Magpies can turn defending crosses into launching counters — especially if Bruno Guimarães (9 league goals, 4 assists) picks up second balls and drives through midfield.
This could end up being less about perfect patterns and more about who controls the “scraps”: second balls, loose clearances, and the next pass after a tackle. That’s where games like this are won.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces: Newcastle are very strong attacking set pieces and strong in aerial duels; Spurs have key defensive absences and can’t afford sloppy fouls.
- Discipline: Tottenham’s last match turned on Romero’s red card, and Newcastle also have a recent red on the slate (Dan Burn, Anthony Gordon). Keep 11 on the pitch and you give yourself a chance.
- Transitions: Newcastle are “very weak” defending counter-attacks. If Spurs win it high and release Simons quickly, the pitch can open up.
- Individual quality moments: Spurs are “very weak” defending skilful players. Newcastle will want Barnes and Elanga isolating defenders and forcing 1v1 decisions.
What could go wrong?
For Spurs, another early wobble could turn the stadium tense fast — especially with that run of conceding 2+ every week and a winless streak dragging on. For Newcastle, the risk is familiar: they can create plenty, but if they lose shape after going forward, Spurs’ width and direct breaks can cut straight through them. This one has swing written all over it.
Market Explainer: Understanding the Odds 📊
Newcastle to Win & BTTS
This is a “Match Result and Both Teams to Score” market. For this to land, Newcastle United must win the match AND Tottenham Hotspur must score at least one goal. If Newcastle win 2-1 or 3-1, it wins; if they win 2-0 or the game is a 1-1 draw, it loses.
Correct Score 2-1
This is the most precise market where you predict the exact final scoreline. It offers higher odds because there is zero margin for error. A late goal can swing a winning position into a loss instantly.
Other opportunities in this market include “Double Chance (Newcastle or Draw)” for a more cautious approach, providing lower prices but covering two outcomes. Higher-risk approaches might look at “Newcastle to win by exactly 1 goal,” which aligns with the volatility of a bottom-half scrap where late game-state effects often decide the margin.
Pick 1 Rationale: Newcastle to Win & BTTS 🎯
The primary driver for a Newcastle victory is Tottenham’s ongoing defensive crisis. Spurs have conceded at least two goals in five straight Premier League matches, a trend exacerbated by the absence of record-equalling red card holder Cristian Romero. Without their main organiser, a side already noted as “very weak” at avoiding individual errors faces a Newcastle team that averages a superior 12.9 shots per game. Newcastle’s profile as a side that attacks down the right and is “very strong” at set pieces creates a tactical nightmare for a depleted Spurs backline.
However, Spurs scoring is equally plausible. Thomas Frank’s side identity revolves around width and frequent crossing, aiming to create chaos through second balls. Newcastle are “very weak” at defending counter-attacks and “weak” at protecting the lead, which invites a high-event game. With both teams having scored exactly 35 league goals this season, the offensive punch is present on both sides, even if defensive control is absent. Newcastle’s aerial edge (17.8 duels won per game) should help them clear the “Win” hurdle, but their own defensive fragility ensures Spurs should find the net.
Tactical Indicators:
- Tottenham have conceded 2+ goals in 5 straight Premier League matches.
- Newcastle win 17.8 aerial duels per game, giving them a set-piece edge.
- Both teams have scored exactly 35 league goals after 25 games.
Risk Factor: Newcastle are “weak” at protecting the lead, meaning a late Spurs equaliser could spoil the result even if the visitors dominate.
Pick 2 Rationale: Newcastle 2-1 Newcastle United ⚔️
A 2-1 scoreline perfectly captures the statistical symmetry and tactical flaws of both sides. Both Tottenham and Newcastle have 35 goals this season, meaning they average 1.4 goals per game. In a match where both defences are “weak” (Newcastle) or “very weak” (Spurs) at various defensive metrics, a single-goal margin victory for the more physically dominant side in the air is the most realistic outcome. Newcastle’s ability to land blows from dead balls and long shots fits the pattern of Spurs conceding multiple goals regularly.
The plausibility of 2-1 is heightened by Newcastle’s aerial prowess. Winning 17.8 aerials per match compared to Spurs’ 14.8 allows the Magpies to control the scraps in the penalty area. Since Newcastle are also “very weak” defending counter-attacks, Spurs are highly likely to snag a goal through their wide threats like Xavi Simons, but the lack of Romero and the persistent error-prone nature of the home defence should see them concede at least twice for the sixth consecutive match.
Risk Factor: Both teams sitting on 10 defeats apiece shows a high level of inconsistency; a reckless red card (common for both) could blow the scoreline open.
Interactive Q&A: Match Insights ⊕
⊕What is a “Win & BTTS” bet?
It means your chosen team must win the match, and both teams must score at least one goal. For example, a 2-1 or 3-2 victory for Newcastle would win the bet.
⊕Why is Cristian Romero missing for Tottenham?
Romero is suspended after receiving a red card at Manchester United. This is a significant blow as Spurs lose an aggressive organiser in their defence.
⊕How often does Newcastle win aerial duels?
Newcastle United average 17.8 aerial duels won per match. This is higher than Tottenham’s 14.8 and makes them dangerous during set pieces and crosses.
⊕What is the “Correct Score” betting market?
The Correct Score market requires you to predict the exact final result of the game. It is a high-reward but high-risk market due to its precision.
⊕Is Tottenham’s home stadium an advantage?
Normally yes, but Spurs are on a winless streak of seven league games. Fragile confidence means a slow start could turn the home crowd tense quickly.
⊕What is Newcastle’s main attacking strength?
Newcastle are very strong at attacking set pieces and like to use the width of the pitch, particularly attacking down the right side with crosses.
⊕Who are the key goal threats in this match?
Dominic Solanke for Spurs and Nick Woltemade for Newcastle are the primary targets. Both lead their respective teams’ attacking lines and shot target stats.
⊕Why do both teams have so many red cards?
Spurs have Romero (2) and Simons (1), while Newcastle have Burn (1) and Gordon (1). This suggests both teams struggle with discipline under pressure.
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