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Can Tottenham slow Liverpool down — or will this fixture turn wild again?
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium gets the Saturday evening spotlight again, and it arrives with a familiar mix of expectation and nerves. Tottenham host Liverpool with the reigning champions turning up in buoyant mood, looking to stretch an unbeaten run to six games in all competitions. Read on for complete analysis and the best betting tips.
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Villa have won 8 of 10 home games and dominate possession (53%). Everton concede high xGA (1.52) and struggle away. Villa's attack outpaces Everton's defense.
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Villa scores 1.8 goals/home game but is weak defending set pieces. Everton wins 22.4 aerials/game, suggesting they score one despite losing.
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Tottenham Hotspur vs Liverpool Predictions and Best Bets
Tottenham Hotspur vs Liverpool — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds shown below.
The headline prices below are paired with the listed outcome percentages for Tottenham Hotspur, the draw and Liverpool.
Across 40 previous meetings, Tottenham Hotspur wins, draws and Liverpool wins break down into the shares shown below.
The figures below reflect the listed percentages for match goals lines and both teams to score, paired with the quoted fractional prices shown.
A quick look at leading scorers for each side, paired with the listed anytime prices for the same names.
- Head-to-head weight: These sides have met 40 times, with Liverpool winning 23, Tottenham nine and eight draws, and those meetings averaging 3.35 goals with both teams scoring 65% of the time.
- Table snapshot after 16 games: Liverpool are eighth on 26 points (26 scored, 24 conceded), while Tottenham are 11th on 22 points (25 scored, 21 conceded), setting up a close but tense gap.
- Home and away scoring signals: Tottenham have scored in 75% of home league matches and average 1.25 goals at home, while Liverpool have scored in 87% of away matches and average 1.63 goals away.
Match Tempo: Average Total Goals per League Game
Both sides have been involved in high-scoring league matches this season, with their goals-per-game averages pointing to an open-feeling contest.
With an average near three total goals per game, Spurs matches have regularly swung between threat and vulnerability.
Liverpool’s league games have averaged just over three total goals, a sign that chances tend to appear at both ends.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets This Season
Clean sheets give a simple snapshot of how often a side keeps the match fully under control at the back across the league campaign.
Five clean sheets shows Spurs can lock in defensively on their day, even if their matches often carry risk.
Liverpool also sit on five clean sheets, underlining that control can arrive — but it’s not guaranteed every week.
Attacking Reliability: How Often They Score
This compares Tottenham’s home scoring frequency with Liverpool’s away scoring frequency, a useful shorthand for how regularly each side finds the net.
Scoring in 75% of home matches suggests Spurs can create enough to get on the scoresheet, even when the game-state turns awkward.
Liverpool scoring in 88% of away games points to a forward line that tends to produce chances even outside Anfield.
Spurs, meanwhile, are painted as a side going the other way: regressing, undercooked, and staring at the sort of pre-Christmas headache that can ruin a festive calendar.
The league table sharpens the contrast. Liverpool sit eighth after 16 matches on 26 points, with 26 goals scored and 24 conceded. Tottenham are 11th on 22 points, scoring 25 and conceding 21. Those raw totals don’t scream chaos, but the feel around these teams is different. Liverpool’s recent run hints at recovery and rhythm; Spurs’ recent stretch reads more like a team trying to keep the wheels on while the road keeps throwing potholes at them.
This fixture rarely does “quiet”. Across 40 previous meetings, Liverpool have won 23 and Tottenham nine, with eight draws. The goals trend is even louder: those clashes have averaged 3.35 goals, and both teams have scored in 65% of them. Even the last meeting finished 1–1, which sounds tame until you remember that a draw in this matchup often feels like a temporary ceasefire rather than a settled peace.
The bigger storyline, though, is whether Tottenham can shape a night that suits them. They’ve taken four points from their last five matches, scoring six times, and they’ve scored in each of their last three home games. Yet there’s a warning label attached: Tottenham have failed to score in two home matches this season, and the wider home picture is described as very poor. Liverpool’s away record is described as average, with 1.25 points per game on their travels, which keeps the door ajar for Spurs — but only if they can stop the match becoming the kind of track meet that turns their structure into a suggestion rather than a plan.
If this is “main event” territory, it’s because it asks a clear question: can Spurs make this a game played on their terms, or will Liverpool’s steadier shape and sharper patterns turn it into another night where Tottenham spend too long chasing shadows and too little time choosing where to stand?
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Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Tottenham’s possible starting XI reads as: Vicario; Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Spence; Palhinha, Bergvall; Kudus, Simons, Kolo Muani; Richarlison.
That looks like a back four protected by a double pivot, with three attacking midfielders supporting a central striker. If those names line up in that order, Spurs should have the spine to compete physically and the legs to press. The potential balance point is the midfield pair. Palhinha brings bite and a natural instinct to shut down central lanes; Bergvall’s role, in that pairing, becomes vital for how Tottenham progress the ball and whether they can connect defence to attack without turning every possession into a coin flip.
Ahead of them, the trio of Kudus, Simons and Kolo Muani offers flexibility. You can picture the rotation already: one drifting inside to overload midfield, another running beyond Richarlison to stretch the line, the third arriving late for second balls around the box. With Porro and Spence as full-backs, Tottenham have the potential to build width and create crossing moments — but that comes with the familiar trade-off: the more they push the full-backs, the more they ask Romero and Van de Ven to defend space.
Liverpool’s possible starting XI is: Alisson; Bradley, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Chiesa, Jones, Wirtz; Ekitike.
Again, it reads like a back four with a double pivot, three behind the striker, and a clear structure that should be comfortable both with and without the ball. The headline here is the blend of control and threat. Mac Allister and Gravenberch as a pair suggest Liverpool want to keep their passing crisp in central areas, while still having the legs to step out and press. In front, Jones and Wirtz hint at a team that can find pockets between the lines rather than relying purely on wide deliveries. Chiesa gives a direct option: someone who can run at a full-back, force retreats, and turn a neat possession spell into a moment of danger.
At centre-back, Konate and Van Dijk is a pairing designed for exactly this sort of game — one where the home side can load runners and test your timing. Tottenham’s likely front four include pace and movement; Liverpool’s likely back line includes recovery speed and authority. That clash alone will go a long way to deciding whether Spurs can make this a night of repeated entries into the box, or merely a night of promising transitions that fizzle out.
How the Match Could Be Played
The first tactical battle is obvious: Tottenham’s urge to be proactive at home versus Liverpool’s comfort in controlling the rhythm. Spurs’ likely shape invites them to press in a 4-2-3-1: Richarlison leading, the three behind him jumping onto Liverpool’s build-up, and the double pivot ready to squeeze second balls. But pressing is never just about running; it’s about spacing. If Tottenham press high without the distances right, Liverpool have the profiles to play through it — particularly if Wirtz and Jones can find the gaps behind Spurs’ first line, receiving on the half-turn and releasing Chiesa early.
Tottenham’s best path in possession may be through the full-backs and the “10” zones. Porro and Spence can provide width, forcing Liverpool’s wide men to track back and reducing their counter threat. But Tottenham will need more than hopeful crosses. They’ll want Kudus and Simons to receive in pockets, pull Liverpool’s midfield pair out of shape, and then slip passes into the spaces either side of Van Dijk and Konate. Kolo Muani’s likely role is fascinating: he can act as a second runner beyond Richarlison, or he can pull wide to isolate Kerkez or Bradley, creating a channel run for someone else.
Liverpool, for their part, can aim to make Tottenham defend longer than they want to. Spurs’ home record is described as very poor, and one classic symptom of “poor home form” is impatience: pressing too early, forcing passes too soon, turning a match into a series of sprints. Liverpool’s structure can punish that. If they can circulate the ball from Van Dijk into the midfield pair and then out to their wide options, Spurs may be tempted into lunging. That’s when Liverpool’s front line becomes uncomfortable to handle: Chiesa running at retreating defenders, Wirtz picking the final pass, and Ekitike occupying centre-backs and attacking the near post.
The midfield duel is the heartbeat. Tottenham’s double pivot can make this ugly for Liverpool if they win the second balls and keep the centre compact. Palhinha’s presence suggests Spurs want to stop Liverpool playing freely through the middle. But Liverpool’s pairing of Mac Allister and Gravenberch is built for volume and variety. They can pass, they can carry, and they can rotate positions to drag markers away from danger zones. If Tottenham’s midfield two get stretched — one stepping out, the other pinned — Liverpool can slip runners into the half-spaces, particularly with Jones and Wirtz floating between the lines.
Transitions are where this match could tip into mayhem. Tottenham’s recent five-game spell includes 6 goals scored, and the broader note says it’s possible to see “a couple of goals” with their last six games ending with two goals or more. That doesn’t mean the match has to be a circus, but it does hint at momentum swings. Tottenham’s attacking midfield trio contains players who can make something happen quickly after a turnover. If Spurs win the ball and immediately find Simons or Kudus facing forward, they can run at Liverpool’s back line before it settles.
Liverpool’s transition threat is just as real. Their away matches have averaged 3.50 goals, and their away record includes games where they’ve both scored and conceded freely. In a contest where Tottenham may push full-backs on and commit numbers forward, Liverpool can look for direct routes: first pass into a runner, second pass into the box. Chiesa is the obvious outlet, but Wirtz’s presence suggests Liverpool also have a calmer transition option: carry the ball, wait for support, then choose the moment to accelerate.
The wide areas might decide which team gets “their” type of game. Tottenham’s Porro and Spence can be productive going forward, but they must also handle Liverpool’s wide threat. If Chiesa pins Tottenham’s full-back deep, Spurs may lose one of their best attacking weapons. On the other side, if Tottenham can isolate Kerkez or Bradley and repeatedly deliver into Richarlison, they can force Liverpool into defending their box under pressure — and into the kind of clearance-and-recycle sequences where second balls become gold dust.
Set-piece themes are always part of the Tottenham–Liverpool conversation, but the clearest angle here is simply volume of pressure. Tottenham average 56% possession and Liverpool 61%. That suggests long spells where one team pins the other back. The real question is what those spells produce: clean entries into the box, or harmless circulation in front of a set defence. Spurs can’t afford the latter. Liverpool won’t mind it.
The Numbers That Support the Story
Start with the table context because it frames the tension. After 16 matches, Tottenham are 11th on 22 points with a goal difference of +4 (25 scored, 21 conceded). Liverpool are eighth on 26 points with a goal difference of +2 (26 scored, 24 conceded). The gap is four points, not a canyon — which is exactly why this feels like a fork in the road rather than a dead-end.
Look at the underlying match profiles. Tottenham’s matches average 2.88 goals; Liverpool’s average 3.13. Tottenham at home average 2.38 goals per match, while Liverpool away average 3.50. That combination hints at a strange tug-of-war: Spurs’ home games, in isolation, look tighter than the broader reputation; Liverpool’s away games, in isolation, look more open than their champions’ aura might suggest.
Both teams have clear scoring patterns. Tottenham score 1.56 per match overall, but 1.25 at home; Liverpool score 1.63 per match both overall and away. Tottenham have scored in 75% of home matches, and Liverpool have scored in 87% of away matches. That tells a simple story: Liverpool travel with a goal threat that shows up most weeks, while Tottenham’s home scoring has occasional blanks.
Defensively, Tottenham concede 1.31 per match overall and 1.13 at home, with clean sheets in 25% of home games. Liverpool concede 1.50 per match overall and 1.88 away, with clean sheets in 25% of away games. If Tottenham want to enjoy a calmer night, their home concession rate offers encouragement — but Liverpool’s away concession rate suggests Spurs will get chances if they can build them properly.
Head-to-head history is loud and relevant. Across 40 meetings, Liverpool have 23 wins to Tottenham’s nine, with eight draws. Those matches average 3.35 goals and feature both teams scoring 65% of the time. Even the recent results list reads like a rollercoaster: Liverpool 5–1 Tottenham (April 27, 2025), Liverpool 4–0 Tottenham (February 6, 2025), Tottenham 3–6 Liverpool (December 22, 2024). These aren’t just games; they’re reminders that this fixture can turn on a couple of decisive moments and then run away from whichever side loses control first.
The recent form notes add texture. Tottenham have picked up four points from their last five matches and scored six times in that run, with both teams scoring in three of those five. Liverpool’s recent five-match form line reads LWDDW, and their away form is described as average at 1.25 points per game. Neither side arrives with a flawless narrative. Liverpool have the smoother one. Tottenham have the more urgent one.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first “moment” is the opening ten minutes, because Tottenham need clarity. With a likely double pivot and three attacking midfielders, Spurs can either start with controlled aggression — squeezing Liverpool into wide areas, keeping their midfield compact — or they can start frantic, chasing every pass and leaving gaps behind. The match will tell you quickly which Tottenham turn up. If Palhinha and Bergvall look connected, stepping and covering as a pair rather than as two separate individuals, Spurs can build a platform. If they get pulled apart early, Liverpool will enjoy the kind of central access that makes Wirtz and Jones look like they’re playing in slippers.
The second “moment” is the first time Tottenham’s full-backs commit at the same time. Porro and Spence can give Spurs their best attacking shape, but it also creates the risk shape: two centre-backs defending space and a midfield pair trying to cover a lot of grass. Liverpool’s away matches averaging 3.50 goals suggests they don’t mind chaotic environments on the road. Spurs must choose when to take that risk. Do it in waves, with rest defence behind the ball, and you can stress Liverpool. Do it carelessly, and you can spend the next minute sprinting back toward your own box.
The third “moment” is the battle for the inside channels. Tottenham’s Kudus and Simons, plus Kolo Muani’s movement, can overload the spaces just outside Liverpool’s centre-backs. Liverpool’s response will likely involve their midfield pair screening and their centre-backs staying patient. If Tottenham can receive and turn in those pockets, Richarlison becomes a real penalty-box reference point rather than an isolated runner. If Liverpool block those pockets, Tottenham may be pushed toward lower-percentage wide play and hopeful deliveries.
The fourth “moment” is finishing under pressure. This fixture’s history suggests goals arrive in bursts, and the season profiles suggest both teams have matches with multiple goals. Tottenham’s last six games finishing with two goals or more hints at a match where the scoreboard can move. Liverpool’s away goals profile supports the idea that chances will appear at both ends. The side that takes one more of those “half chances” — the near-post flick, the rebound, the loose ball after a scramble — can suddenly control the narrative.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. A single early goal can flip the entire tactical plan: a team set up to press might drop deeper, a team set up to control might suddenly find space behind an opponent chasing the game. This matchup also carries history that can drag teams into emotion — quick transitions, rushed decisions, the odd defensive miscommunication. Fine margins, big personalities, and one mistimed step can turn a carefully planned evening into 20 minutes of damage limitation.
Best Bet for Tottenham Hotspur vs Liverpool
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Liverpool to Win
The divergence in trajectory between these two sides provides the strongest justification for backing the visitors. While the raw league table shows a gap of only four points, the contextual evidence paints a picture of two teams moving in opposite directions. Liverpool arrive in “buoyant mood,” unbeaten in their last six competitions, a run that suggests they have rediscovered their rhythm and resilience. In stark contrast, Tottenham are described as “regressing” and “undercooked,” with a specific warning regarding their “very poor” wider home picture. When a team struggling for consistency at home meets a confident reigning champion, the probability leans heavily toward the established power.
Historical dominance further validates this selection. This fixture is rarely a contest of equals; across 40 previous meetings, Liverpool have emerged victorious 23 times compared to Tottenham’s nine. That is a significant psychological and statistical edge. Furthermore, the goal-scoring data suggests Liverpool are well-equipped to exploit Tottenham’s defensive vulnerabilities. Liverpool have found the net in 87% of their away matches and average 1.63 goals per game on the road. Facing a Spurs side that concedes 1.13 goals at home—and has failed to score in two home matches—Liverpool’s “steadier shape” and ability to control the rhythm through Mac Allister and Gravenberch gives them a distinct tactical upper hand.
The match-up of styles also favors the visitors. Tottenham’s urge to be proactive and press high creates the exact spaces that Liverpool’s attackers, specifically Chiesa and Wirtz, thrive in. If Spurs press “without the distances right,” as the analysis warns, Liverpool possess the transition threat to punish them severely.
What could go wrong The primary risk lies in Liverpool’s traveling form, which is statistically underwhelming despite their recent unbeaten run. Their away record is explicitly described as “average,” yielding just 1.25 points per game. Additionally, Tottenham’s transition threat via Simons and Kudus could destabilize Liverpool if the game becomes chaotic. If Spurs turn the match into a “track meet,” Liverpool’s defensive concession rate of 1.88 goals per away game could prove costly.
Correct score lean
Liverpool 3-1
This scoreline aligns with the expectation of a Liverpool victory driven by high attacking output. The fixture history averages 3.35 goals per game, and Liverpool’s away matches are even more open, averaging 3.50 goals. With Liverpool scoring in 87% of away games and conceding 1.88, a clean sheet is unlikely, but their attacking firepower should outgun a Spurs side that is “regressing.” A 3-1 result reflects Liverpool’s ability to exploit spaces left by Spurs’ aggressive full-backs while acknowledging Tottenham’s capacity to score at least once at home.
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