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Will Sunderland’s Stadium of Light resilience hold firm as Newcastle return to Premier League derby day?
Sunday 14 December brings the Tyne–Wear derby back to the Premier League, with Sunderland hosting Newcastle United at the Stadium of Light. It’s a fixture that carries its own temperature: local pride, familiar storylines, and a match that rarely needs extra selling once the teams walk out.
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Palace’s likely 3-4-2-1 points towards control and territory rather than a stretched shootout. Their Premier League matches average 2.19 total goals and have landed under 3.5 in 94% of games, which fits a line that allows three goals but needs the match to avoid full chaos. KuPS can contribute, yet their Veikkausliiga season still falls under 3.5 goals in 66% of matches, so the overall profile leans towards a total that stays manageable.
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This leans on Palace’s ability to keep things tight — they’ve conceded 0.94 goals per Premier League match and kept clean sheets in 44%, which supports the “KuPS blank” side of the scoreline. The “2” for Palace isn’t about expecting a rout; it’s about a home side that can generate enough to score more than once while still keeping the game controlled. Correct-score betting is inherently high-variance, so this is a lean that matches the tactical picture and the defensive trends rather than a claim of inevitability.
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Sunderland vs Newcastle Predictions and Best Bets
Sunderland vs Newcastle — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities derived from the example odds shown.
The 1X2 pricing leans Newcastle’s way, but Sunderland and the draw are close enough to hint at a tight derby rather than a runaway result.
The shorter correct-score quotes sit around tight outcomes, with 1–1 and narrow Newcastle wins among the most prominent options.
The example goal-line prices point towards a match more likely to sit in a familiar two-to-three goal range than drift into a high-scoring shootout.
The first-goalscorer market highlights a small cluster of names as the likeliest to strike first, led by Newcastle’s attackers and Sunderland’s top scorer.
- Sunderland’s Stadium of Light record in the league is W4 D3, making them one of only two teams still unbeaten at home, and those seven matches have already produced 15 points.
- Sunderland are unbeaten in their last nine league games against Newcastle (W6 D3), with the last referenced top-flight meeting ending 1–1 at St James’ Park in March 2016.
- Sunderland’s matches have finished Under 3.5 goals 87% of the time this league season, while Newcastle’s “exact total goals” most commonly lands on 3 (33%), both pointing towards a game that usually stays below four.
Match Tempo: Average Goals per League Game
Both sides sit in a familiar two-to-three goal range on season averages, which can hint at a competitive contest rather than a shootout.
Sunderland’s league matches have averaged 2.33 total goals, with 60% finishing Under 2.5 across 15 games this season.
Newcastle’s matches average 2.67 total goals, and 67% have gone Over 2.5 in their 15 Premier League fixtures so far.
Home vs Away: Record Snapshot
A quick look at Sunderland’s home resilience alongside Newcastle’s away record helps frame how the Stadium of Light can shape this matchup.
Sunderland have taken 15 points at home this season and are one of two teams still unbeaten on their own ground in the league.
Newcastle have one away win this season, with 43% of their away matches ending in defeat so far in the Premier League.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets This Season
Clean sheets offer a simple way to visualise how often each side has managed to shut the door completely across the league campaign.
Sunderland’s clean-sheet rate is 27% this season, alongside an average of 1.13 goals conceded per Premier League match.
Newcastle have kept five clean sheets (33%) in the league, with 19 goals conceded across 15 matches to date.
The recent context is unusually rich for a derby, too. Sunderland are one of only two sides still unbeaten at home in the league this season, with a Stadium of Light record of W4 D3 and 15 points already banked. Across the campaign as a whole, they’ve taken 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats from 15 league matches, scoring 18 and conceding 17. That profile fits the broader feel of their numbers: 1.53 points per game, 1.20 goals scored per match, and 1.13 conceded per match.
Newcastle arrive with a similarly mid-table shape in raw results: 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 15, scoring 21 and conceding 19 for 1.47 points per game. Their split is more pronounced. At home they’ve logged W5 D1 L2, while away it reads W1 D3 L3. In output terms, they’re averaging 1.40 goals scored per match and 1.27 conceded per match, with a match-goals average of 2.67.
Derbies can ignore spreadsheets, but there are still patterns worth holding onto. Both sides have spent this season living around the two-to-three-goal range: Sunderland’s matches average 2.33 total goals, Newcastle’s 2.67. Sunderland’s own “exact total goals” distribution most commonly lands on 2 (40%) or 3 (27%), while Newcastle’s most frequent is 3 (33%), with 0 (20%) also notable.
There’s also the long, slow burn of the rivalry itself. Sunderland are unbeaten in their last nine league games against Newcastle (W6 D3), and the last Premier League meeting referenced here finished 1–1 at St James’ Park in March 2016. Newcastle, meanwhile, have lost their last three away league games at Sunderland, and the most recent derby in all competitions went Newcastle’s way, a 3–0 FA Cup win at the Stadium of Light in January 2024.
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Team news adds another layer. Sunderland’s Habib Diarra has been closing in on full fitness and could be involved, while Reinildo is a doubt with a groin injury and Aji Alese is out. Luke O’Nien is sidelined until New Year’s Day following a red card against Manchester City. Newcastle have welcomed back Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall, but Kieran Trippier is unavailable until the New Year. Nick Pope is out until Boxing Day, with Aaron Ramsdale continuing in goal. Sven Botman and Joelinton are doubts, and Will Osula and Emil Krafth remain sidelined.
Predicted line-ups point towards recognisable shapes: Sunderland in a 3-4-2-1 built around names like Robin Roefs, Daniel Ballard, Omar Alderete, Trai Hume, Noah Sadiki, Granit Xhaka, Enzo Le Fée and Wilson Isidor; Newcastle in a 4-3-3 featuring Ramsdale behind Livramento, Fabian Schär, Dan Burn and Hall, with Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali and Lewis Miley supporting a front line including Harvey Barnes, Nick Woltemade and Anthony Gordon. If those outlines hold, it sets up an afternoon where the emotional charge is obvious, but the tactical push-and-pull looks fairly structured.
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We publish one primary pick for clarity and accountability. It doesn’t pretend to remove uncertainty — especially in a derby — but it does force a single, evidence-led view of how this match is most likely to behave.
Best Bet for Sunderland vs Newcastle
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Under 3.5 Goals
A derby can swing on a moment, but the most consistent thread running through both teams’ league profiles is that their matches more often stay below the four-goal mark than explode beyond it.
Start with Sunderland’s season-level totals. Their Premier League matches are averaging 2.33 total goals, and their “Under 3.5” rate is 87% overall, with 71% at home. That’s not a claim that Sunderland always play cautiously; it’s simply the accumulated evidence that most of their games don’t reach the kind of shootout that breaks an Under 3.5 line. Even their raw scoring/conceding rates nudge that way: 1.2 scored per match and 1.13 conceded per match implies a typical Sunderland game sits around the mid-twos for total goals. Their most frequent exact total goals figure is 2 (40%), followed by 3 (27%) — again, numbers that repeatedly land in the Under 3.5 window.
Newcastle’s matches carry a little more volume at 2.67 total goals per game, but the same broad conclusion still holds. Their “Under 3.5” rate is 67% overall, and while away games can be less predictable, their away “match goals average” is 2.29, which is still firmly aligned with a game that doesn’t need to become chaotic to produce a result. Newcastle’s most frequent exact total goals is 3 (33%), which sits neatly under the line, and the next most common is 0 (20%), reinforcing the idea that a portion of their schedule has been comparatively contained.
The derby angle also supports caution rather than fireworks. The referenced last Premier League meeting ended 1–1 in March 2016, and Sunderland’s current league run against Newcastle is unbeaten across nine games (W6 D3). Those facts don’t guarantee a repeat, but they do underline how often this fixture can settle into a tight contest where neither side fully releases the handbrake. Add Sunderland’s unbeaten home record this season (W4 D3) and you have a home team that’s consistently avoiding defeat on its own ground — another trait that can keep a match from becoming reckless.
Personnel hints at goal threat, but not necessarily a goal-fest. Sunderland’s leading league scorers include Wilson Isidor (4) and a cluster on 2 such as Daniel Ballard, Chemsdine Talbi, Enzo Le Fée, Nordi Mukiele and Brian Brobbey. Newcastle’s top scorers include Bruno Guimarães (5), Nick Woltemade (5) and Harvey Barnes (3), with Anthony Gordon on 2. That’s enough quality to make “no goals” a risky assumption, but it doesn’t demand a four-goal game — especially if both sides retain their season-long tendency to live in the two-to-three goal range.
What could go wrong is simple: derbies can fracture. Early goals drag game-states into places that season averages can’t predict, and both squads have multiple players already contributing goals — Guimarães and Woltemade for Newcastle, Isidor for Sunderland — as well as set-piece or secondary scorers like Ballard and Burn. If the match becomes stretched, or if defensive absences bite at the wrong moments, Under 3.5 can be undone by one wild ten-minute spell.
Correct score lean
If you want a scoreline that fits the contained-game logic, 1–1 is a reasonable lean. Sunderland’s most frequent full-time scorelines include 1–1 (three times, 20%), and the last cited Premier League derby meeting also finished 1–1.
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