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Can Sunderland exploit Fulham’s defensive travel sickness to reclaim their Stadium of Light dominance? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Sunderland remain incredibly difficult to beat at the Stadium of Light, having taken 26 points from 39 at home. Fulham arrive on a three-match losing streak and struggle for clean sheets, having conceded in ten consecutive games. Sunderland’s aerial dominance should allow them to secure at least a point.
Read Rationale ▾
Both teams find the net frequently but struggle to kill games off. Fulham’s porous defence makes a Sunderland goal likely, while Silva’s side maintains high possession and shot volume. Given the slow-burn nature of both sides’ scoring patterns, a competitive 1-1 stalemate fits the tactical profile perfectly.
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Sunderland’s Stadium of Light run finally cracked, and the reaction matters. Régis Le Bris saw Liverpool end a 12-match unbeaten home streak with a 1-0 defeat.
Sunderland vs Fulham — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Sunderland’s formidable home record faces Fulham’s superior ball possession, creating a contest where both teams carry equal implied chances.
Fulham have conceded in 10 straight matches, while Sunderland’s aerial strength suggests chances from set-pieces remain a constant threat.
Sunderland’s strong aerial record (18.8 won per game) meets a Fulham side that struggles in the air, suggesting a tight 1-1.
Winning 18.8 aerial duels per match, Sunderland hold a significant physical advantage over Fulham’s 13.8 per game average.
Match Preview
Sunderland’s Stadium of Light run finally cracked, and the reaction matters. Régis Le Bris saw Liverpool end a 12-match unbeaten home streak with a 1-0 defeat, coming straight off a 3-0 loss at Arsenal — the first time Sunderland have suffered back-to-back defeats since returning to the Premier League.
Now comes Fulham, a team with their own edge-of-the-seat tension. Marco Silva brings a side on a three-match losing streak in the league, leaky at the back lately, but still capable of controlling games with the ball.
Kick-off is 14:00, and the shape of this one feels simple: Sunderland want to turn Wearside energy into front-foot football, while Fulham will try to slow the pulse and pick them off.
Physical Battle: Aerial Duels Won per Match
Sunderland’s aerial dominance is a core part of their tactical setup, significantly outperforming Fulham in the air this season.
With Dan Ballard winning 4 aerials per game, Sunderland use high crossing volume and long balls to control vertical space.
Fulham struggle to deal with direct, physical threats, which could be a factor during set-piece situations at the Stadium of Light.
Ball Control: Average Possession %
This reflects how each side approaches the game, with Fulham preferring to dictate the tempo through ball retention.
Le Bris’ side are comfortable without the ball, focusing on protecting leads and exploiting counter-attacking opportunities.
Silva’s side look to control games with an 84.1% pass completion rate, working the ball into wide zones to create chances.
- Home fortress, finally dented: Sunderland went 12 home matches unbeaten before Liverpool edged them 1-0, and they’ve still taken 26 points from 39 at the Stadium of Light.
- Fulham’s away wobble comes with goals: Fulham have lost three straight Premier League away games and have conceded in 10 straight matches across all competitions.
- This fixture has haunted Sunderland in the top flight: Sunderland have gone five consecutive top-flight meetings without beating Fulham since January 2009, failing to score in four of those Wearside visits.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Sunderland absences
- Granit Xhaka (ankle injury) – return date not listed
- H. Jones (unknown injury) – return date not listed
- Bertrand Traoré (knee injury) – return date not listed
- D. Bi (ankle injury) – return date not listed
Fulham absences
No injuries or suspensions listed.
Probable Sunderland XI
Roefs; Mukiele, Ballard, Geertruida, Cirkin; Diarra, Sadiki, Le Fee; Hume, Brobbey, Angulo
Probable Fulham XI
Leno; Castagne, Andersen, Bassey, Sessegnon; Iwobi, Berge; Wilson, Smith Rowe, Kevin; Jimenez
If Xhaka misses out, Sunderland lose a midfield organiser who’s delivered 5 assists in the league — that’s a big chunk of their chance creation gone. Fulham’s front four looks built to keep the ball moving and test spacing between the lines, with Harry Wilson (8 league goals, 4 assists) as the obvious spark.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Premier League) | Sunderland | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Table / Points | 11th / 36 (26 GP) | 12th / 34 (26 GP) |
| Goals scored | 27 (26 apps) | 35 (26 apps) |
| Shots per game | 9.7 | 12.0 |
| Possession | 43.8% | 51.4% |
| Pass % | 79.4% | 84.1% |
| Aerials won | 18.8 | 13.8 |
| Clean sheets | 9 (29 played) | 7 (32 played) |
Tactical Battle
When Fulham have the ball
Fulham’s identity screams “play”: short passes, width, and a willingness to work the ball into shooting lanes. Their possession and passing numbers back that up, and they create a healthy shot volume (12 per game).
The danger area for Sunderland is obvious. They’re weak at defending counter attacks and defending against attacks down the wings — and Fulham are strong at attacking down the wings. That’s a direct clash. If Ryan Sessegnon and Timothy Castagne can push the wide zones, Fulham can ask questions Sunderland don’t always answer cleanly.
But Fulham have their own red flag: defending against through ball attacks is very weak, and defending counter attacks is weak. If they over-commit, they can be opened up.
When Sunderland have the ball
Sunderland play with width and long balls, often from deeper areas. That suits a side that doesn’t dominate possession but does dominate key duels. Dan Ballard wins 4 aerials per game, and Brian Brobbey brings a physical reference point up top with 5 league goals.
Expect Sunderland to go early into Brobbey and build from knockdowns, especially if Fulham’s centre-backs are dragged into second-ball scraps. Nordi Mukiele (4 assists) and Enzo Le Fée (3 goals, 4 assists) are the supply lines — the issue is whether the final touch matches the platform.
Key Zones & Mismatches
Fulham are weak in aerial duels. Sunderland are strong in them. That can decide territory, set-piece pressure, and the ugly moments in the box.
If Sunderland can turn that edge into repeat entries — corners, deep free-kicks, long throws — Fulham’s recent concession streak becomes a proper storyline rather than background noise.
Game-State Scenarios
Sunderland’s event timing hints at a slower burn (first goal around 50’), while Fulham’s is around 49’ — two teams that often settle into matches rather than explode early.That points to patience, but it also points to one messy phase deciding it. One misplaced pass, one bad duel, one runner not tracked — and suddenly the whole afternoon tilts.
Key Moments to Watch
- Wide channels: Sunderland’s weakness down the wings meets Fulham’s strength there. If Fulham win those flank battles, the box will fill quickly for Raúl Jiménez.
- Second balls and set-piece pressure: Sunderland’s aerial strength (team average 18.8 aerials won) can turn the match into a repeat siege, especially if Fulham can’t clear cleanly.
- Fulham’s defensive volatility: Conceding in 10 straight matches across all competitions puts their concentration under the microscope the moment Sunderland start landing punches.
- Creative load without Xhaka: If Granit Xhaka misses out, Sunderland lose a key passer with 5 assists — that could force Le Fée to carry more risk and more responsibility.
What could go wrong?
Sunderland’s home mood has been strong, but they’ve just taken two straight league defeats and they’re weak at finishing chances — a bad miss can drain a stadium fast. Fulham can dominate the ball, but their soft underbelly is transition defending; lose shape for five seconds and they can be split open.
📊 Tactical Analysis & Betting Insights
Double Chance (Sunderland/Draw)
A Double Chance bet covers two out of three possible outcomes in a single match. By selecting Sunderland or Draw, the bet wins if the home side either wins or the game ends in a stalemate. This is often used for defensive home sides against out-of-form visitors.
Correct Score (1-1)
Correct Score requires predicting the exact final result of the match. While higher risk, it offers better returns. A 1-1 draw is a common outcome for two mid-table teams that both possess scoring threats but lack defensive consistency.
🎯 Rationale: Sunderland or Draw
Sunderland’s recent slip against Liverpool shouldn’t overshadow their consistent performance at the Stadium of Light this season. With 26 points earned on home turf, they remain a formidable prospect for any visiting side. Fulham enter this fixture in a period of defensive turmoil, having conceded goals in ten consecutive matches across all competitions. This lack of clean-sheet capability makes it highly likely that Sunderland will find the net.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators:
- Sunderland boast a high aerial win rate of 18.8 per match, posing a threat from restarts.
- Fulham have lost three consecutive Premier League away fixtures.
- Silva’s side are defensively vulnerable to counter-attacks and through balls.
Risk Factor: The potential absence of Granit Xhaka removes a primary creative outlet, with 5 league assists potentially missing from the midfield.
🎯 Rationale: Correct Score 1-1
Statistical trends for both sides point toward a shared result. Fulham control possession (51.4%) and generate significant shot volume (12 per game), which should eventually breach a Sunderland defence that has shown vulnerability down the wings. However, Fulham’s own weakness in aerial duels (13.8 won per match) aligns perfectly with Sunderland’s greatest strength (18.8 won per match). This mismatch often results in set-piece goals, keeping the home side in the contest even when they are not dominating play.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Winning 18.8 duels/match. Direct threat from corners against a physically smaller Fulham side.
Weak at defending through balls and high-volume crossing. Vulnerable to Sunderland’s direct style.
Risk Factor: Sunderland are tagged as weak at finishing chances, which could see them fail to capitalise on their physical dominance in the box.
❓ Match FAQ: Sunderland vs Fulham
⊕ What is a Double Chance bet for this match?
⊕ Why is a 1-1 draw predicted for Sunderland vs Fulham?
⊕ How does Sunderland’s aerial dominance impact the game?
⊕ What is Fulham’s current form heading into this fixture?
⊕ Does Sunderland’s home record make them favourites?
⊕ What would be the effect of Granit Xhaka missing the game?
⊕ Are there any suspension concerns for this match?
⊕ Where can I watch the live stream of the match?
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