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Can Sunderland’s home fortress keep Burnley stuck in the drop zone? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Sunderland are the only Premier League side yet to lose at home this season. With Burnley winless in their last six away games and struggling to defend wide areas, the Black Cats’ tactical discipline and fortress advantage make a home win highly authoritative.
Read Rationale ▾
Sunderland’s seven clean sheets and Burnley’s limited attacking output suggest a home shutout. Given Burnley’s 44 goals conceded and vulnerability to wide overloads, a controlled 2-0 win for the Black Cats aligns with the defensive and offensive disparities between the two sides.
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Sunderland vs Burnley Predictions and Best Bets
Sunderland vs Burnley — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and sample bet365 odds for round 24.
Sunderland are the only side yet to lose a home Premier League match this season, while Burnley arrive winless in their last six on the road.
Sunderland’s defensive record of seven clean sheets makes a controlled 1–0 or 2–0 victory the most mathematically likely outcomes.
With both sides averaging around 10 shots per game, markets reflect a structured contest rather than high-volume chaos.
- Home Comforts: Sunderland are unbeaten in 12 straight home matches across all competitions, and they remain the only Premier League side yet to lose at home in 2025–26.
- Away Day Blues: Burnley have not won any of their last six away league games, picking up just two draws and conceding 11 goals in that run.
- Shot-Shy Clash: Sunderland average 10.3 shots per game, Burnley 9.5, highlighting two sides who rely more on structure and moments than sustained pressure.
Venue Impact: Unbeaten vs Winless Runs
Sunderland have turned the Stadium of Light into a fortress, while Burnley continue to search for their first away win in over six attempts.
They are the only Premier League side yet to lose at home this season.
The Clarets have picked up just two points from their last six trips.
Defensive Profile: Goals Conceded
The disparity in defensive solidity is clear, with Burnley’s backline stretched significantly more often than the hosts.
Seven clean sheets highlight a disciplined structural approach.
One of the highest tallies in the division, averaging over 2 goals per game.
Monday night football at the Stadium of Light brings together two newly-promoted sides heading in very different directions. Sunderland sit just outside the top half, still very much part of the mid-table scrap, while Burnley arrive rooted second from bottom and already condemned to stay there regardless of the result.
Régis Le Bris’s side have hit a slight wobble, winning just one of their last six league games, but their home form remains a powerful safety net. A recent 2-1 win over Crystal Palace underlined how difficult they are to shift in front of their own supporters, and another victory would keep them within touching distance of the European places.
Burnley, under Scott Parker, have shown grit in draws against Liverpool, Manchester United, and Tottenham, yet wins remain scarce. With kick-off at 20:00, this feels like a test of Sunderland’s patience against Burnley’s resistance.
Team News & Lineups
Sunderland (Manager: Régis Le Bris)
- Granit Xhaka – out (ankle injury)
Probable XI:
Roefs; Mukiele, Ballard, Alderete, Cirkin; Diarra, Sadiki; Hume, Le Fée, Talbi; Brobbey
Implication: The absence of Xhaka removes leadership and distribution from midfield, putting extra creative weight on Enzo Le Fée.
Burnley (Manager: Scott Parker)
- No injuries or suspensions listed.
Probable XI:
Dúbravka; Humphreys, Esteve, Tuanzebe; Walker, Ugochukwu, Florentino, Pires; Edwards, Anthony; Foster
Implication: Parker’s shape points to protection first, territory second, with Burnley happy to sit deep and play direct.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Sunderland | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| League Position | 11th | 19th |
| Points | 33 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 24 | 25 |
| Goals Conceded | 26 | 44 |
| Shots per game | 10.3 | 9.5 |
| Possession % | 45% | 42% |
| Clean Sheets | 7 | 3 |
The numbers point to a tight, physical contest. Sunderland concede fewer chances and keep more clean sheets, while Burnley’s defensive record shows how often they’re stretched under pressure.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Sunderland: width, patience, second balls
Sunderland are not a possession-heavy side, and they don’t try to be. They sit in their own half, stretch the pitch with width, and look to move the ball quickly into wide areas before attacking the box. Trai Hume and Nordi Mukiele are key here, pushing on to overload the flanks.
In attack, Brian Brobbey acts as the focal point. He may only have five league goals, but his physical presence brings others into play and helps Sunderland sustain pressure. The issue is finishing: Sunderland are weak at converting chances, which explains why so many home games stay tight deep into the second half.
Defensively, they’re comfortable under stress. Strong aerially and good at protecting leads, Sunderland are happy to defend their box if required.
Burnley: low block, long balls, moments
Burnley’s approach is far more reactive. They play in their own half, use long balls, and try to move play quickly towards Jaidon Anthony and Lyle Foster. It’s functional rather than fluid.
The problem areas are clear. Burnley struggle to keep possession, defend wide areas, and deal with skillful players. Against a Sunderland side that plays with width on both flanks, that’s a dangerous mix. If Burnley drop too deep, they invite crosses and second phases — exactly where Sunderland are strongest.
Still, Burnley have shown resilience. Draws at Anfield and against Spurs show they can frustrate, especially if the game stays goalless early.
Key Moments to Watch
- Early pressure: Sunderland’s first goals often arrive late, so Burnley surviving the opening hour could shift belief.
- Wide duels: Sunderland’s wing play versus Burnley’s weakness defending the flanks feels decisive.
- Set pieces: Both sides are vulnerable here, and tight games can swing on one loose clearance.
What could go wrong?
For Sunderland, profligacy. Missed chances keep Burnley alive. For Burnley, one lapse in concentration could open the floodgates in a ground where confidence grows quickly.
Best Bet for Sunderland vs Burnley
Can Sunderland’s home fortress keep Burnley stuck in the drop zone?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Home Form | Sunderland: 11 unbeaten at home | Back Sunderland |
| Away Form | Burnley: 0 wins in last 6 away | Oppose Burnley |
| Defense | Burnley: 44 goals conceded | Home Goals |
| Score Rate | Sunderland: 7 clean sheets | Sunderland Win |
Sunderland to Win
Sunderland enter this fixture as the only Premier League side yet to lose a home match in the 2025–26 campaign. This unbeaten streak at the Stadium of Light establishes a powerful psychological and physical advantage. While they have experienced a slight dip in overall form, their ability to grind out results in front of their own supporters remains their defining characteristic.
Burnley, by contrast, are suffering from a chronic inability to perform on the road. They have failed to secure a victory in any of their last six away league outings. During this period, their defensive structure has repeatedly collapsed, resulting in 11 goals conceded. This lack of resilience makes them prime targets for a Sunderland side that thrives on wide overloads and second-ball dominance.
The tactical matchup heavily favours the hosts. Burnley struggle significantly when defending wide areas and dealing with skillful players. Sunderland’s system is built specifically to exploit these weaknesses, utilising Trai Hume and Nordi Mukiele to stretch the pitch and deliver service into the box. Even without Granit Xhaka, the creative presence of Enzo Le Fée is sufficient to break down a Burnley low block that is often stretched under sustained pressure.
Furthermore, the defensive disparity between the two sides is stark. Sunderland have maintained seven clean sheets this season and concede far fewer high-quality chances. Burnley have allowed 44 goals—the second-worst record in the division. In a high-pressure environment, Sunderland’s patience and defensive stability will ultimately overwhelm Burnley’s limited direct-attacking options.
What could go wrong?
Sunderland’s primary weakness is a low conversion rate of chances. If Brian Brobbey and the supporting attackers fail to clinicalise their early opportunities, Burnley have shown they can frustrate elite opposition, as seen in their recent draws against Liverpool and Spurs. A goalless first hour could lead to home frustration.
Correct Score Lean
Sunderland 2-0 Burnley
Sunderland’s defensive record at the Stadium of Light is the most reliable metric in this matchup. Having kept seven clean sheets this season and facing a Burnley side that averages only 9.5 shots per game, a home shutout is highly probable. Burnley’s defensive fragilities—evidenced by 44 goals conceded—mean they rarely escape matches without individual errors. A two-goal margin reflects Sunderland’s dominance while acknowledging their tendency to convert chances at a lower rate.
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