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Can Sean Dyche’s men exploit Wolves’ travel sickness to secure vital breathing room in the survival race? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Nottingham Forest boast a significant 18-point lead over bottom-placed Wolves and hold a strong home advantage. Wolves have the league’s worst away record, securing only three points on their travels. Forest’s higher shot volume and possession should overwhelm a struggling Wolves side that lacks finishing power.
Read Rationale ▾
Wolves have lost their last three matches by at least two goals and struggle to find the net, scoring just 16 times all season. Forest’s defensive stability and Wolves’ fragility suggest a comfortable home win. A 2-0 scoreline reflects Forest’s attacking pressure and Wolves’ inability to respond.
Readers’ Tip
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Under the City Ground lights, Nottingham Forest face a pivotal survival fixture against a Wolves side anchored to the bottom of the table. Every loose touch will resonate in a stadium defined by urgency and the high stakes of Premier League safety.
Forest vs Wolves — bet365 Market Snapshot
Explore key performance metrics and sample bet365 odds for this Premier League survival clash.
Forest’s home points advantage and Wolves’ dire away record make the hosts strong 1X2 favourites at the City Ground.
Wolves’ struggle for goals (16 in 25) suggests a tighter, potentially lower-scoring encounter than the averages might imply.
A 1-0 or 2-0 Forest victory aligns with their home dominance and Wolves’ persistent scoring woes this season.
Forest’s 9 clean sheets compared to Wolves’ 3 highlights the defensive gulf that could define this relegation six-pointer.
Match Preview
Under the City Ground lights at 19:30, Nottingham Forest walk into one of those fixtures you feel in your chest. They’re 17th, only three points above the drop, and they’ve just taken a punch: 3-1 away at Leeds, after a 1-1 home draw with Crystal Palace.
Wolves arrive bottom with 8 points and a brutal recent run in the league. The mood is raw, the margins tiny, and every loose touch is going to sound louder in this stadium. Forest also have the Europa League on the horizon — Fenerbahce away on February 19 — but there’s no looking past this. This is survival-season football: urgent, messy, and defined by who keeps their nerve.
Attacking Volume: Average Shots per Game
A comparison of offensive output, highlighting Forest’s greater frequency in creating shooting opportunities.
With 65% of efforts coming inside the box, Forest maintain a consistent threat at the City Ground.
Wolves struggle to sustain offensive pressure, often relying on direct exits and long-range efforts.
Defensive Reliability: Total Clean Sheets
Visualising the disparity in defensive shutouts across the current Premier League campaign.
Forest have shown a greater ability to lock down defensively compared to their bottom-of-the-table visitors.
Conceding 48 goals in 25 matches, Wolves have struggled to maintain defensive structure.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Nottingham Forest
- Out / doubts: Dilane Bakwa (unknown injury), J. Furtado (knee surgery), Chris Wood (knee surgery), E. da Silva Moreira (unknown injury).
- Probable XI: Ortega; Aina, Murillo, Milenkovic, Williams; Anderson, Sangare; Ndoye, Gibbs-White, Dominguez; Lucca
- Implication: With Chris Wood out, the top line looks different. The burden shifts onto Morgan Gibbs-White for goal threat and final-ball quality.
Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Out / doubts: Not listed.
- Probable XI: Sa; Doherty, Mosquera, S Bueno, H Bueno; J Gomes, Andre; A Gomes, Armstrong, Mane; Arokodare
- Implication: That midfield pairing (João Gomes and André) has to survive long defensive spells without giving away cheap territory — Wolves are vulnerable when opponents attack wide and slip runners in behind.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Nottingham Forest | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 20th |
| Points | 26 | 8 |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-5-13 | 1-5-19 |
| Goals scored (PL) | 25 | 16 |
| Goals conceded (PL) | 38 | 48 |
| Avg shots per game | 13.14 | 10.48 |
| Possession | 50% | 45% |
| Pass accuracy | 84% | 81% |
| Clean sheets | 9 CLINICAL | 3 |
This points towards a Forest game: more territory, more attempts, more moments in and around the box. Wolves’ problem is sharper — goals are scarce (16 in 25 league matches) and they give up too much defensively (48 conceded).
Tactical Battle
Forest’s plan: width, crosses, and volume
Forest lean into wide attacks: they play with width, attack down the left, and attempt crosses often. They also take plenty of efforts — 13.14 shots per game, with 65% of those coming from inside the box. At home, that usually means early pressure and a lot of deliveries into dangerous zones. The key is turning pressure into real danger. Forest’s finishing has been an issue, and that’s where Gibbs-White becomes the spark. He’s their top league scorer on 6, and when Forest get on top, he’s the one who has to make the pass that actually hurts.
Wolves’ reality: deep block, aggressive edge, direct exits
Wolves are built for a scrap: aggressive, often playing in their own half, with a taste for long balls and crosses. They can protect a lead and steal the ball — but the bigger picture is grim: they struggle to keep possession, and their finishing is labelled very weak. This sets up a clear rhythm. Forest probe, Wolves absorb. Wolves’ best route is to win it and go fast into the channels, looking for Tolu Arokodare to occupy defenders and bring others into play. Wolves’ crossing and long-shot habits can create moments, but it also risks handing Forest repeat attacks if the final ball doesn’t stick.
Key Zones & Mismatches
Here’s where it gets pointed: Wolves are weak defending attacks down the wings, and Forest want the match wide. If Forest can drag Wolves across the pitch and keep the tempo high, the pressure stacks up — corners, second balls, and tired legs defending the back post.
But Forest aren’t clean either. They can be vulnerable to counter-attacks and set pieces, and they’re weak in aerial duels — exactly the kind of chaos Wolves will try to manufacture when they can’t dominate the ball.
Key Moments to Watch
- First contact in midfield: Wolves commit 13.72 fouls per game and pick up 2.1 yellows per game. If Forest draw cheap fouls in advanced areas, the pitch tilts their way.
- Set-piece stress test: Forest’s set-piece defending is a concern, and Wolves will welcome any route to the box that doesn’t require sustained possession.
- The early goal chase: Forest’s first-goal event time sits around 37′, Wolves’ around 43′. If it’s tight late, nerves and decision-making take over.
What Could Go Wrong?
Forest can build pressure and still come away with nothing if the finishing doesn’t match the territory — that’s the trap in survival fixtures. Wolves, meanwhile, arrive off three straight losses by 2+ goals in all competitions and have been losing at half-time and full-time in their last three — if they concede first, the match can unravel fast. And with this pairing throwing up four draws in the last six head-to-heads, one scruffy moment could be enough to drag it into a tense, jittery finish.
Quick Hits
- Bottom-line gap, massive stakes: Nottingham Forest sit 17th on 26 points, while Wolves are 20th on 8 — an 18-point chasm that turns this into a must-handle home fixture.
- Home comfort vs away misery: Forest have 12 points from 12 home league matches, but Wolves have the worst away record: 3 points from 12, with no wins on the road.
- Chance-creation edge: Forest average 13.14 shots per game with 50% possession, while Wolves sit at 10.48 shots and 45% possession — meaning Wolves may spend long spells without the ball.
Market Explainer
Match Result (1X2)
This market requires you to predict the final outcome of the match: a Home Win (1), a Draw (X), or an Away Win (2). It covers the full 90 minutes plus injury time.
Pros: Straightforward and liquid. Cons: No protection against late equalisers.
Correct Score
You are predicting the exact final scoreline of the game. This is a high-volatility market that rewards precision with higher pricing.
Pros: High potential returns. Cons: Low probability of success due to game-state variables.
🎯 Pick 1 Rationale: Nottingham Forest to Win
Nottingham Forest enter this fixture with a clear statistical and psychological advantage. Sitting 18 points ahead of Wolves, the hosts have demonstrated a far superior ability to accumulate results, particularly within the confines of the City Ground. Forest average 13.14 shots per game and control 50% of possession, suggesting they will dictate the tempo against a Wolves side that typically sees only 45% of the ball. The visitors arrive with the worst away record in the Premier League, managing a meagre three points from 12 road trips and suffering from a complete lack of wins on their travels.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Home Dominance: Forest have earned 12 of their 26 points at home, while Wolves have no away wins this season.
- Creation Gulf: Forest average 13.14 shots per game compared to Wolves’ 10.48, with the hosts taking 65% of shots inside the box.
- Form Divergence: Wolves have lost their last three matches by two or more goals and occupy the bottom spot.
Risk Factor: Forest’s own finishing has been inconsistent, and survival pressure can often lead to cagey, low-scoring draws.
🎯 Pick 2 Rationale: Nottingham Forest 2-0
A 2-0 scoreline reflects the significant gap in defensive and offensive efficiency between the two sides. Wolves have conceded 48 goals in 25 league matches, highlighting a defensive fragility that Forest are well-equipped to exploit through their wide-attack strategy. Furthermore, Wolves have failed to score in several matches, totalling only 16 goals all season. Forest’s record of 9 clean sheets suggests they have the stability to shut out the league’s lowest scorers. Given Wolves’ recent trend of losing by 2+ goals in all competitions, a multi-goal margin for the hosts is a highly plausible outcome based on current performance metrics.
Risk Factor: A late consolation goal from Wolves or a 1-0 Forest win where they fail to convert their volume of chances into a second goal.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Forest play with width and attempt frequent crosses, utilizing Morgan Gibbs-White to find runners in the box.
Wolves are statistically weak at defending attacks down the wings and struggle against high crossing volumes.
Interactive Q&A
⊕ What is the Match Result market?
The Match Result market is a bet on whether the home team wins, the away team wins, or the game ends in a draw. It is the most common football market and settled at the end of 90 minutes.
⊕ Why is Nottingham Forest the favourite?
Nottingham Forest are favourites because they sit 18 points ahead of Wolves and face an opponent with no away wins this season. Wolves have the worst away record in the league, making Forest’s home advantage significant.
⊕ What does ‘Correct Score’ mean?
A Correct Score bet requires you to predict the exact final scoreline of the match. If the game ends in any other score than the one you selected, the bet is unsuccessful.
⊕ Is Wolves’ away form a major factor?
Yes, Wolves’ away form is critical, as they have secured only 3 points from a possible 36 on the road. Their lack of travel success makes them significant underdogs at the City Ground.
⊕ Can I bet on a draw in this fixture?
Yes, the Draw (X) is an available selection in the Match Result market. This fixture has seen four draws in the last six meetings between these teams.
⊕ Who is the key player for Forest?
Morgan Gibbs-White is the key player for Nottingham Forest. He is their top scorer with 6 goals and is essential for turning their possession into goal-scoring opportunities.
⊕ How many goals do Wolves score?
Wolves have scored just 16 goals in 25 Premier League matches this season. This low average makes them one of the least productive attacking teams in the division.
⊕ What are the defensive stats?
Forest have conceded 38 goals and kept 9 clean sheets, whereas Wolves have conceded 48 goals and kept only 3 clean sheets. This suggests Forest have a much more stable defensive unit.
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