bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Will Newcastle’s set-piece power and front-foot football overwhelm Palace — or can Glasner’s side find a route through the middle? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
▾
The visitors sit top of the table with a 22-point advantage over their hosts, driven by a balanced attack and a sturdy defense. While the home side has improved lately, they remain tactically vulnerable to the visitors' strengths in through-ball creation and set-piece execution. Given that the visitors control the game in the opposition's half and possess elite finishers like Lawrence Shankland, they are well-positioned to dictate the tempo. The mismatch between the hosts' weak wing defense and the visitors' left-sided attacks further reinforces the likelihood of an away victory in this encounter.
▾
This scoreline reflects the visitors' defensive excellence and the hosts' offensive limitations. The away side has conceded only 17 goals in 20 league games, while the home side has failed to score in several matches this season. The visitors' ability to score from long shots and set pieces—areas where the hosts are weak—suggests they can find multiple goals without overextending. A 2-0 win is a frequent outcome for top-tier sides facing bottom-half opposition, allowing the leaders to exert control without needing to engage in a high-scoring shootout on a cold night.
Readers’ Tip
Vote your pick — quick & anonymous
Terms & Conditions (tap to view)
Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace Predictions and Best Bets
Newcastle vs Palace — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Listed odds suggest a clear advantage for the hosts, reflecting their unbeaten home streak and Palace’s recent winless form.
Market pricing focuses on Newcastle control, with low-scoring home wins and the 1–1 draw viewed as the most probable outcomes.
Pricing leans toward a match with 2 or 3 goals, with a balanced outlook on whether both teams will find the net.
Wissa and Gordon lead the pricing for the home side, while Mateta represents the primary threat for the visitors.
- Set-piece pressure point: Newcastle average 6.18 corners per game (173 total), and they’re rated strong at attacking set pieces while Palace are rated weak at defending them.
- Shot volume suggests chances at both ends: Newcastle average 12.7 Premier League shots per game, while Palace average 11.8, hinting at a match where openings should appear.
- Tight table, tiny gap: Palace are 10th with 27 points and Newcastle 13th with 26, so a single result reshapes the order without needing a calculator.
Set Piece Pressure: Average Corners per Game
Newcastle generate significant pressure through set pieces, which aligns with their physical profile in aerial duels.
Newcastle’s style involves heavy width and frequent crosses, leading to a high frequency of corner kick opportunities.
Palace generate fewer corners, often relying on central attacking moves and through balls rather than sustained wing pressure.
Attacking Volume: Total Shots Produced
Total volume across matches played shows two sides that are active in the final third, despite different overall possession levels.
Averaging 13.5 shots per game, the hosts look to keep the ball in the opposition half to sustain attacking waves.
Despite lower possession, Palace produce high shot volume through quick transitions and long ball sequences.
Unbeaten at St James’ Park since September 2025, Newcastle United are back on Tyneside on Sunday with Crystal Palace arriving in awkward form and with the Premier League table bunched tightly enough to make every point feel like it weighs double. This is the 20th round, and it comes with a clear, simple incentive: Newcastle have the chance to jump above Palace.
There’s history here too, and it isn’t the kind Palace will be replaying on the coach ride north. Their previous two visits to Newcastle ended in defeats by an aggregate score of 9-0, which is the sort of number that hangs in the air even if you’re trying to pretend it doesn’t. Oliver Glasner’s side also come into this one trying to halt a six-match winless run across all competitions, while Newcastle’s recent home record has been framed as strong, with victories in 67% of their last six matches at St James’ Park.
Conditions could add to the feel of it. The match details list St James’ Park at -1°, and a cold night in the North East tends to sharpen everything: touches, tackles, and tempers. If the early exchanges look snappy, that’s why.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Newcastle’s possible starting XI is: Pope; Miley, Thiaw, Schar, Hall; Guimaraes, Tonali, Joelinton; Barnes, Wissa, Gordon.
Even before you get into the finer tactical points, that selection leans hard into a familiar Newcastle idea: play high up the pitch, keep the ball in the opposition half, and make the game happen in waves. That matches their listed style traits — controlling the game in the opposition’s half, playing with width, attacking down the right, and attempting crosses often. In the middle, Bruno Guimarães and Sandro Tonali point to control and tempo-setting, while Joelinton adds the edge and the ability to contest second balls when the match turns chaotic.
There are also defensive absences listed: D. Burn is out with bruised ribs until 24.01.2026, while S. Botman and V. Livramento are also listed as unavailable (hamstring and knee injuries respectively), and W. Osula is out with an ankle injury until 13.01.2026. With Burn and Botman on that list, Newcastle’s balance at the back becomes a talking point — not in terms of “who they are”, but what it means for the type of risks Newcastle can afford to take if they’re pushing play forward.
Crystal Palace’s possible starting XI is shown as: Henderson, Lerma, Lacroix, Guehi; Clyne, Wharton, Hughes, Mitchell; Devenny, Pino;. The structure reads like a back three with wing-backs and a pair behind the forward line, which also aligns neatly with Palace’s formations summary pointing heavily towards 3-4-2-1. The names in there suggest a side built to defend with numbers, then play quickly through the middle when the moment arrives — again echoing their listed style points: attacking through the middle, attempting through balls often, and using long balls.
Palace also have a clear weak spot on paper: defending set pieces. Against a Newcastle team rated strong at attacking set pieces — and strong in aerial duels — that’s not the sort of matchup you want to be negotiating repeatedly.
How the Match Could Be Played
This has the feel of a game where territory matters as much as technique. Newcastle’s profile screams “front-foot”, and their likely XI fits it: wide attackers in Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon, a forward line that can stretch the pitch, and a midfield that can recycle possession quickly when the first route is blocked.
The key question is how Palace choose to meet that pressure. If they settle into their expected back three and wing-backs, the first job is simple: shut down the wings early enough that Newcastle’s crossing game becomes predictable. Newcastle are described as a team that attempts crosses often and plays with width. That can be a weapon, but it can also become a trap if the deliveries are from too deep or too obvious. Palace will want to force Newcastle wide, then win the first header and, crucially, the second ball.
But Palace are not built solely to absorb. Their strengths include creating scoring chances — rated very strong — and stealing the ball from the opposition. That combination points to a plan where they try to bait Newcastle into committing numbers, then pounce when an ambitious pass or heavy touch opens a lane. With Palace’s style also leaning into through balls, those moments are likely to come centrally rather than via endless wing play.
That sets up the most interesting tactical tug-of-war: Newcastle want control in the opposition half, but they’re also listed as weak at defending counter attacks and weak at protecting the lead. Palace, meanwhile, are comfortable playing in their own half and using long balls. Put those together and you can picture the rhythm: Newcastle circulating, Palace waiting, and then a sudden release forward that tests Newcastle’s ability to stop transitions before they become shots.
In midfield, Guimarães is the obvious organiser for Newcastle’s game states. If he can receive cleanly and move the ball on quickly, Newcastle can keep Palace pinned and stretch that back line side-to-side. Palace’s “keeping possession” weakness also hints that they might not want long, patient spells with the ball under Newcastle pressure. That’s where the Palace trio of central defenders and the midfield pair/line behind the attackers needs to be brave with clearances and first passes. One sloppy turnover in the middle and the home side’s wave becomes a flood.
Out wide, Newcastle’s attacking down the right is flagged, and Palace’s likely wing-back set-up puts a lot of responsibility on that side to judge when to step out and when to tuck in. The risk is obvious: step out too aggressively and you open the inside channel for a run or a through ball; tuck in too much and you invite crosses and corners. In freezing conditions, those repeated, high-speed decisions get harder, not easier.
Set pieces could be the “quiet loud” theme. Newcastle are strong at attacking set pieces and strong in aerial duels. Palace are weak at defending set pieces. Games don’t always follow the script, but when one team is built to win dead-ball moments and the other is flagged as vulnerable there, it naturally becomes a pressure point: every corner becomes an event, every free-kick into the box forces a decision.
William Hill
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
BetMGM
Bet £10 Get £40 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Betfred
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
10bet
100% Up To £50 On First Deposit
Show Terms & Conditions
The Numbers That Support the Story
The league table context is tight enough to matter. Newcastle sit 13th with 26 points, while Palace are 10th with 27 points. Over 19 Premier League matches, Newcastle have scored 26 goals and conceded 24, while Palace have scored 22 and conceded 21. That suggests both teams are in the business of fine margins rather than wild shootouts, even if the match intro leans into high-scoring expectations.
The underlying volume points to an intense contest. Newcastle average 12.7 shots per game in the Premier League; Palace average 11.8. Over the broader “played games” section, Newcastle have 378 total shots (13.5 per game) and Palace have 404 (13.47 per game). Those are hefty totals, and they matter because Palace’s style explicitly says they take a lot of shots — which supports the idea that even if Newcastle have more territory, Palace can still rack up attempts when transitions land cleanly.
Possession splits also back the likely shape. Newcastle’s Premier League possession is 52.2%, with 83.2% pass completion. Palace sit at 43.2% possession with 77.4% pass completion. That points to Newcastle having more of the ball and a cleaner passing platform, while Palace are more likely to play direct or accept lower-possession phases as the price of being ready to strike.
There’s also a set-piece indicator in the corners: Newcastle have 173 corners across the listed matches (6.18 per game), Palace 133 (4.43 per game). Corners aren’t goals, but they are repeated opportunities to lean on aerial strength — and Newcastle’s aerial profile includes Malick Thiaw at 3.6 aerials won per game and Dan Burn at 3.8 in the squad numbers, even if Burn’s listed as unavailable here. When a team generates lots of corners and wins lots of aerial duels, it shapes how the opponent has to defend the box.
Finally, those cold, cruel visiting records. Palace have lost their previous two trips to Newcastle by 9-0 on aggregate. That doesn’t decide Sunday, but it does underline how quickly this fixture can get away from them if the first 20 minutes go wrong.
Key “Moments” to Watch
One moment to watch is the first time Palace try to spring a transition through the middle. Their style points towards central attacking and through balls, while Newcastle’s listed weakness is defending counter attacks. If Palace can turn one Newcastle attack into one clean break, it tests Newcastle’s structure immediately — and it also tells you whether Palace’s attacking plan is working or whether they’re going to be stuck clearing their lines for long spells.
Another is the set-piece battle. Newcastle’s strength at attacking set pieces meets Palace’s weakness at defending them, and the numbers say Newcastle generate corners regularly. If Palace are giving away cheap corners and free-kicks, it invites the kind of pressure that builds without you noticing — until you look up and realise the ball has lived in your penalty area for ten minutes.
Then there’s the finishing theme, because both sides carry that particular warning label. Newcastle are described as weak at protecting the lead, while Palace are flagged as weak at finishing scoring chances despite being very strong at creating them. That mix creates a match where momentum can swing: the team that makes the most of its best spells might not be the one that looks prettiest overall.
What could go wrong with this read? The simplest answer is that football refuses to behave. An early goal can tear up any expectation of territory and transitions, and a match that looks destined to be about set pieces and counter-attacks can become about nerves, game management, and a single moment of quality. Fine margins, frozen fingertips, one deflection — and suddenly the “plan” is just a memory.
Best Bet for Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace
[bt4y_article_veil]
Newcastle United to win
The case for a home victory is built on a combination of historical dominance, current form, and tactical matchups. Crystal Palace arrive in the North East on the back of a grueling schedule, having played 12 matches in just 42 days. This heavy workload appears to be taking its toll, as Oliver Glasner’s side is currently navigating a six-match winless streak across all competitions.
In contrast, Newcastle’s record at St James’ Park remains excellent, with the team securing victories in 67% of their last six home outings. This home comfort is further bolstered by recent history in this specific fixture. Palace’s last two visits to Tyneside ended in heavy defeats, with an aggregate score of 9-0. Such a one-sided record at a specific venue often creates a psychological hurdle that is difficult for a struggling side to overcome.
Tactically, Newcastle are well-positioned to exploit Palace’s specific vulnerabilities. The visitors are noted for their weakness in defending set pieces, while Newcastle are rated as strong in attacking them and dominant in aerial duels. With the home side averaging over six corners per game, they will likely have numerous opportunities to test a Palace defense that has also failed to keep a clean sheet in its last five matches. Furthermore, Newcastle’s high-pressing style, which involves controlling play in the opposition half and attacking with width, directly challenges a Palace team described by their own manager as being in “survival mode.” While Newcastle have defensive absences to manage, their midfield control through Bruno Guimarães and the clinical edge of Yoane Wissa—who has scored twice in his last four games—should provide the platform to secure all three points.
What could go wrong?
Newcastle’s primary concern lies in their defensive depth and a tendency to struggle when protecting a lead. With key defenders like Dan Burn and Sven Botman unavailable, the backline may be vulnerable to the quick transitions that Crystal Palace favor. If Palace can exploit Newcastle’s weakness against counter-attacks and score early, the home side’s pressure could turn into frustration, especially if Jean-Philippe Mateta continues the scoring form he rediscovered on New Year’s Day.
Correct score lean: 2-0
The 2-0 scoreline reflects both Newcastle’s offensive output and Palace’s historical struggles at this venue. Newcastle have scored exactly twice in each of their last eight home matches across all competitions, showing a remarkable consistency in front of their own fans. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace have failed to score a single goal in any of their last five visits to St James’ Park. While Palace possess defensive solidity, conceding only 21 goals this season, the combination of Newcastle’s set-piece threat and Palace’s fatigue suggests the hosts will find the net twice while maintaining a clean sheet against a side struggling for away goals in this fixture.
Selected Bookmakers Offers
| |
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. | |
| |
Open Account Offer - New Customers only. Bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets when you join bet365. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value settle. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs , time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required. #Ad. 18+ Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. | |
| |
New cust only. Opt-in required. Deposit & place a bet within 7 days and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater to be credited with 3 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 football. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. T&Cs apply. Acca Club: Available to new & existing customers. 3 or more selections. Min Odds: 3/10 (1.3) per leg. Max stake: £500. Max Winnings: £200,000 per boost. Profit Boost amounts vary. Horse Racing, Greyhounds & Trotting excluded. Exclusions apply. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ GambleAware.org. | |
 | |
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs.+ deposit exclusions apply #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits apply. T&Cs Apply; 18+ | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
New customers only, 18+. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at 2.0+ to qualify for £25 in free bets and 10 Free Spins. Free Bets and Spins valid 7 days. £0.10 Free Spins. T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs Apply and deposit exclusions apply. Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+ New customers only. Opt in, and bet £10 on football markets (odds 2.00+). No cash out. Get 6x£5 football free bets at specified odds for set markets, which expire after 7 days. Offer valid from 12:00 UK Time on 25/08/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply | gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
