bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Can Leeds Turn Elland Road Mayhem into Another Setback for Stuttering Liverpool?
Elland Road braces for another emotional storm as Leeds United welcome Liverpool in a Premier League clash that feels half survival scrap, half identity test for the champions. One side are clawing their way out of trouble with a new system and renewed belief; the other are trying to remember what stability looks like after a chaotic run of results. If you like calm, tidy football, this might not be your match. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Get Premium Tips before kick-off
To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo location and live streaming rules apply.
Global Video Listings for this match
Works worldwide • Email + on-site access • Instant unlock
▾
Leeds have quietly built a solid home platform, losing just twice in seven league matches at Elland Road and showing real attacking bite in their 3-5-2 system, as Chelsea found out. Their recent performances suggest a side better than their points tally, with xPoints indicating underachievement rather than overperformance. Liverpool, meanwhile, arrive with five defeats in their last seven away league games and a broader run of six losses in nine Premier League fixtures. Their defence is leaky, their schedule is intense and their focus is split by a looming Champions League tie. Leeds/Draw Double Chance exploits that imbalance perfectly.
▾
A 2-2 scoreline captures the identity of both teams right now. Leeds are vibrant, aggressive and creative at home but have conceded in 13 of their 15 league matches, so a clean sheet against Liverpool is unlikely. Liverpool remain potent going forward, especially with Salah expected to start and Wirtz linking play, yet their away defensive record is weak, with frequent concessions, plenty of shots faced and only rare clean sheets. Leeds’ home fixtures have routinely delivered both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals, while Liverpool’s away contests lean heavily towards high totals. A thrilling, end-to-end stalemate feels the most logical outcome.
▾
Leeds vs Liverpool Predictions and Best Bets
- Leeds’ home resilience
- Leeds have only lost twice in seven Premier League games at Elland Road this season, with their last five at home all seeing both teams score and at least three total goals.
- Liverpool’s away struggles
- Liverpool have been beaten in five of their last seven league trips, conceding heavily on the road and keeping just one away clean sheet in their last fourteen matches in all competitions.
- Performance vs reward gap
- Leeds’ last eight league games show almost level expected goals for and against and an xPoints tally around 11, yet they have collected only six actual points, indicating clear underperformance.
Leeds’ rebirth under pressure
Leeds come into this game with a mood swing that only this club seem capable of. Four straight league defeats had everyone staring nervously at the relegation zone, then Daniel Farke flipped the script in midweek. Switching decisively to a 3-5-2 shape from the start, the Whites dismantled Chelsea 3-1 at Elland Road, with Jaka Bijol, Ao Tanaka and Dominic Calvert-Lewin all getting on the scoresheet.
It was not just the scoreline that mattered; it was the way Leeds imposed themselves. The three-at-the-back structure with Bijol, Joe Rodon and Pascal Struijk gave them a solid spine, while wing-backs Jayden Bogle and Gabriel Gudmundsson provided width and intensity. In midfield, Tanaka, Ethan Ampadu and Gruev knitted together energy, pressing and tempo control. Up front, Calvert-Lewin and Lukas Nmecha had already shown their danger in the 3-2 defeat at Manchester City, and that threat carried straight into the Chelsea game.
That win did more than produce three points; it hauled Leeds out of the bottom three, at least temporarily, and reminded everyone that Elland Road is still a horrible place for visiting sides when the home team are aggressive and the crowd smell vulnerability. With three wins from seven home games and only two defeats at their own ground, Leeds are not behaving like a side who are supposed to roll over for anyone, least of all a shaky Liverpool.
Liverpool’s fragile resurgence
Liverpool arrive with a storyline that feels oddly uncomfortable for a reigning champion. Yes, they avoided defeat in their last two league fixtures – a 2-0 win at West Ham followed by a 1-1 draw at home to Sunderland – but the broader picture is much uglier. Six losses in their last nine Premier League outings and nine defeats in their previous 14 matches in all competitions tell you this is not just a blip; it is a sustained downturn.
The draw with Sunderland summed up the confusion. A deflected effort from Chemsdine Talbi and another from Florian Wirtz, eventually recorded as a Nordi Mukiele own goal, meant they needed a stroke of fortune simply to share the points. Arne Slot even had to rely on Federico Chiesa producing a heroic late block on Wilson Isidor to prevent yet another defeat. When you are needing your attacker to bail you out in your own box in the dying minutes at Anfield, something is not right.
Liverpool’s away form is particularly alarming: five defeats in their last seven on the road, only three clean sheets in their last 14 games overall, and a concession average pushing towards 1.8 goals per match over that stretch. Process data still paints them as a strong attacking outfit away from home, with non-penalty expected goals around 1.7 and consistent shot production, but they give up far too many chances and allow an uncomfortable number of shots on target.
William Hill
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
BetMGM
Bet £10 Get £40 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Betfred
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
10bet
100% Up To £50 On First Deposit
Show Terms & Conditions
Selection puzzles and tactical fault lines
Team news adds another layer of intrigue. For Liverpool, the return of Conor Bradley from injury offers fresh legs at right-back, crucial with Joe Gomez unlikely to be asked to start three times inside a week. Jeremie Frimpong and Giovanni Leoni remain out, but Slot can at least rotate his defensive line.
Further forward, the attacking options are rich, even if the performances have not always matched the names. Mohamed Salah is expected to reclaim his place on the right, with Wirtz operating centrally and one of Cody Gakpo or Chiesa taking the left-sided role. Hugo Ekitike or Alexander Isak can lead the line, while midfield combinations could include Gravenberch, Curtis Jones, Dominik Szoboszlai or Mac Allister, depending on how much Slot chooses to prioritise freshness before a huge Champions League tie with Inter Milan.
Leeds have their own concerns. Calvert-Lewin and Nmecha, both scorers at Manchester City and key figures in the Chelsea win, are serious doubts with calf and hamstring issues. That likely pushes Joel Piroe and Noah Okafor into starting roles up front. Tanaka is also a fitness question after his big midweek effort, though Ampadu, Stach and Gruev give Farke options in the centre of the pitch. At the back, Bogle and Gudmundsson have done enough to expect to keep their spots, while James Justin is pressing to come back in after a knock, and Sean Longstaff and Daniel James remain sidelined.
Even with those question marks, Leeds’ structure looks coherent: Perri in goal; Rodon, Bijol and Struijk as a back three; Bogle and Gudmundsson as wing-backs; a compact and busy midfield anchored by Ampadu; and a front pair capable of stretching Liverpool’s often exposed back line. Against a Liverpool side juggling rotation, form and confidence, that stability at home matters.
Why we focus on ONE standout prediction
With so many narratives swirling around this game – Leeds’ tactical shift, Liverpool’s away problems, the Champions League distraction, the Elland Road factor – it would be easy to throw out half a dozen different betting ideas and hope one of them lands. That is not how we operate.
At BettingTips4You we deliberately strip things back to a single main prediction for each match. We weigh up the win markets, goals angles, player props, corners and all the more niche options, and then select the one bet that we feel best captures the matchup. It is a quality-over-quantity approach: cleaner for you, more accountable for us, and far less confusing than wading through five similar options and trying to guess which one we secretly like most.
For Leeds United vs Liverpool, after working through all that context and data, one angle stood out as the clearest expression of how this game is likely to unfold.
Best Bet for Leeds vs Liverpool
Works worldwide • Email + on-site access • Instant unlock
Leeds/Draw Double Chance
Backing the reigning champions not to win at a newly promoted side might sound provocative, but sometimes the numbers scream louder than the badge on the shirt. Everything about recent performances, underlying metrics and situational factors points towards Leeds being far more competitive here than the raw league table suggests.
Start with Elland Road. Leeds have only been beaten twice in seven home league matches this season and have taken points off sides like Chelsea, Newcastle, Bournemouth and Everton. Their last five home league games all featured both teams scoring and at least three goals, with an average of 3.4 per match, which tells you they are not sitting deep and hoping for miracles; they are playing on the front foot, creating chances and accepting that games might get wild.
Statistically, their underlying process backs that up. Over the last eight matches, they sit with almost level non-penalty expected goals for and against – roughly 1.49 versus 1.48 – and an xPoints tally of around 11.14 compared with only six actually collected. In simple terms, performances have been better than results. That screams “undervalued” in betting terms and suggests there is upside in trusting Leeds to avoid defeat, especially at home.
Liverpool, by contrast, are trending in the opposite direction. Their recent league run of W2-D1-L6 is the kind of sequence that would have most clubs in full-blown crisis. They have lost five of their last seven away league games, conceded six or more corners in four of their seven away fixtures, and allowed an average of over four shots on target per game on the road. Their away defensive numbers – 1.04 non-penalty xG against but far more actual damage conceded – paint a picture of a side that allow too many clean looks on goal and fail to control key moments.
Leeds, meanwhile, consistently find ways to put defences under pressure. They average 14 shots per home game, with 8.4 efforts inside the box in their recent run. Centre-backs like Bijol and Struijk are genuine threats from set-pieces, both registering shots regularly, and we have already seen oppositions’ centre-halves hurting Liverpool at dead balls. Add in the wide supply from Bogle and Gudmundsson, plus the movement of Piroe and Okafor, and you can almost see the chaos unfolding on corners and crosses.
Then factor in the psychology. Leeds have just outplayed Chelsea 3-1 at home, while Liverpool needed a deflection and last-gasp defending to scrape a draw against Sunderland. Elland Road will sense weakness and will roar into every duel, every second ball, every questionable clearance from Van Dijk or Konate. Liverpool also have one eye on Inter Milan, whether they admit it publicly or not; rotating in key areas might protect them long-term, but it can easily cost sharpness in a one-off high-intensity match like this.
The double chance protects us if Liverpool do manage to wrestle a point out of a hostile environment, while still letting us exploit Leeds’ home form and the Reds’ fragile away record. We are not asking Leeds to be perfect; we just need them not to be beaten over 90 minutes.
BettingTips4You.com expert quote:
“Given Leeds’ aggressive home performances, Liverpool’s travel sickness and the Champions League distraction, siding with the Whites on Leeds/Draw Double Chance is the smart way to back the underdog without getting reckless.”
If there is a controversial note here, it is this: judged purely on recent evidence, the idea that Liverpool should automatically be trusted as away favourites at a ground like Elland Road feels more emotional than logical. We would rather let the data, not the past reputation, drive our call.
Correct score prediction: Leeds United 2-2 Liverpool
Leeds have conceded in 13 of their 15 games this season, including each of their recent victories, so expecting them to keep a clean sheet even in a strong performance would be optimistic. On the other side, Liverpool remain a dangerous attacking side with Salah back in the starting XI, creators like Wirtz, Gravenberch and Szoboszlai feeding the forwards, and either Ekitike or Isak providing presence in the box.
Leeds’ home matches have repeatedly produced both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals, while Liverpool’s away fixtures have seen over 2.5 in roughly 71% of cases and both teams netting in more than half. With Leeds improving under their 3-5-2 shape but still prone to defensive concessions, and Liverpool combining attacking menace with shaky game management, a 2-2 draw ticks every box: open, emotional, mildly chaotic and perfectly aligned with a Leeds/Draw Double Chance stance.
Selected Bookmakers Offers
| |
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. | |
| |
Open Account Offer - New Customers only. Bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets when you join bet365. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value settle. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs , time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required. #Ad. 18+ Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. | |
| |
New cust only. Opt-in required. Deposit & place a bet within 7 days and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater to be credited with 3 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 football. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. T&Cs apply. Acca Club: Available to new & existing customers. 3 or more selections. Min Odds: 3/10 (1.3) per leg. Max stake: £500. Max Winnings: £200,000 per boost. Profit Boost amounts vary. Horse Racing, Greyhounds & Trotting excluded. Exclusions apply. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ GambleAware.org. | |
 | |
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs.+ deposit exclusions apply #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits apply. T&Cs Apply; 18+ | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
New customers only, 18+. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at 2.0+ to qualify for £25 in free bets and 10 Free Spins. Free Bets and Spins valid 7 days. £0.10 Free Spins. T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs Apply and deposit exclusions apply. Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+ New customers only. Opt in, and bet £10 on football markets (odds 2.00+). No cash out. Get 6x£5 football free bets at specified odds for set markets, which expire after 7 days. Offer valid from 12:00 UK Time on 25/08/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply | gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
