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Can Aston Villa finally break Crystal Palace’s grip on this matchup at Selhurst Park? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is based on the strong offensive numbers and defensive trends of both clubs. Aston Villa have seen both teams score in eight consecutive matches, while Crystal Palace have a very strong rating for creating chances. Furthermore, both teams are statistically weak at defending set pieces, which often leads to goals from dead-ball situations. Palace have a history of scoring against Villa, having netted 12 times across their last four meetings, and Villa’s high-possession style often leaves them open to the quick turnovers that Palace specialize in.
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A 1-2 victory for Aston Villa aligns with their superior league standing and recent form, having won five of their last six games. While Palace have struggled to pick up wins recently, their home record against Villa is excellent, and they possess the tools to exploit Villa’s defensive vulnerabilities. Villa's clinical finishing—noted as a strength—should allow them to edge out a Palace side that is strong at creating chances but often weak at finishing them. This scoreline accounts for both teams' inability to keep clean sheets recently.
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Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Predictions and Best Bets
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Villa’s strong league position and form make them favourites, though Palace’s historical dominance in this fixture is a key factor.
Villa’s streak of eight games without a clean sheet and Palace’s strong creation stats suggest goals at both ends.
The 1-2 away win and 1-1 draw are among the most likely outcomes according to listed odds.
- Palace’s recent record against Villa is dominant: five wins in the last six meetings across competitions, including 3-0, 4-1 and 5-0 scorelines in that run.
- Villa are third with 42 points from 20 matches and have scored 33 league goals, meaning Palace’s back three face constant movement and multiple creators.
- Palace’s attacking volume is high but control is low: 11.8 shots per league match with 43.1% possession and 77.0% pass accuracy, forcing them towards direct, transition-heavy football.
Scoring Reliability: Total Goals in 20 Matches
Villa’s offensive output has been significantly higher than Palace’s this season, though the spread of goals across the squads varies.
Averaging over 1.6 goals per game, Villa’s strength in finishing scoring chances is a defining trait of their campaign.
Despite creating a high volume of shots, Palace have averaged exactly 1.1 goals per game so far.
Control Metrics: Average Ball Possession
These percentages reflect the tactical contrast between Villa’s controlled build-up and Palace’s reactive, transitional style.
Villa combine possession with 84.9% pass accuracy to dictate the tempo of their league fixtures.
Palace rely on stealing the ball and direct play rather than long spells of possession.
Selhurst Park gets another crack at being a comfort blanket on Wednesday night as Crystal Palace welcome Aston Villa for a Premier League clash. Palace come into it with the sort of recent sequence that turns every home game into a need, not a want. They’ve just been beaten 2-0 away at Newcastle United, and their last six across competitions reads like a grind: three draws, three defeats, and not a single win.
Villa arrive with a very different mission statement. They’re in the business of securing Champions League qualification this term, and the table backs up that ambition. They’re third with 42 points from 20 matches, level on points with Manchester City in second. Palace are 14th with 27 points. That gap doesn’t make this straightforward — Selhurst rarely does — but it does shape the pressure. Villa’s season is about stacking results. Palace’s week is about stopping a slide and finding something that feels like forward motion again.
There’s also a little psychological ghost hovering over this fixture. Palace’s recent record against Villa is vicious. Five wins from the last six meetings across competitions, including a 3-0 win at Villa on 31 August 2025 and a 4-1 win in February 2025. Villa have not beaten Palace in that six-game sample. That doesn’t score any goals on Wednesday, but it does set the tone: Palace have enjoyed this matchup, and Villa come here knowing they need to change the script.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Palace’s possible starting lineup has Dean Henderson in goal, with Jaydee Canvot, Maxence Lacroix and Marc Guéhi as the back three. Kaden Rodney, Adam Wharton, Will Hughes and Tyrick Mitchell sit across midfield, with Brennan Johnson and Yéremy Pino operating behind Jean-Philippe Mateta.
That XI fits Palace’s personality. They play in their own half, are non-aggressive, and prefer a consistent first eleven. They attack through the middle, take a lot of shots, hit long balls, and attempt through balls often. The spine here is built for regain-and-go: Wharton and Hughes to win it and move it, two narrow attackers to find pockets, and Mateta as a clear focal point.
Palace also carry some sharp strengths and uncomfortable weaknesses. They are very strong at creating scoring chances and strong at stealing the ball from the opposition. But they are weak at finishing scoring chances and very weak at defending set pieces, while also being weak at avoiding offside and weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. In other words: Palace can build danger, but they make life hard for themselves both in the penalty boxes.
There is also an injury and suspension list. C. Kporha has a back injury, Ismaïla Sarr is called up to a national team until 19 January 2026, C. Doucoure is out after knee surgery, and Daniel Muñoz Mejía has a knee injury.
Villa’s possible starting lineup lists Emiliano Martínez in goal; Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Victor Lindelöf and Ian Maatsen in defence; Boubacar Kamara and Youri Tielemans in midfield; John McGinn, Morgan Rogers and Emiliano Buendía in support of Ollie Watkins.
This is a side full of ways to hurt you. Villa are very strong at attacking down the wings and very strong at coming back from losing positions. They create chances using through balls and individual skill, they take long shots, and they attempt through balls often. They also play the offside trap and are comfortable using short passes. The weaknesses are there too — they are weak defending set pieces, weak avoiding fouling in dangerous areas, and weak in aerial duels — but the attacking toolkit is loaded.
How the Match Could Be Played
The key clash is simple: Palace create chances; Villa attack down the wings. That combination screams territorial pressure for Villa, but it also offers Palace the kind of transitional opportunities they like. Palace are strong at stealing the ball, and Villa’s style includes short passes and through balls, which can invite pressure in midfield and at the base of attacks. If Palace can nick it and move it quickly into Johnson or Pino, Villa’s defensive weaknesses against skillful players and through ball attacks come into play immediately.
Villa’s likely structure also naturally targets Palace’s soft spots. Palace are very weak defending set pieces. Villa are strong at shooting from direct free kicks and strong at finishing scoring chances. That means any sloppy Palace foul in a dangerous area is a direct problem, and Palace are already weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. There’s a neat line from “clumsy challenge” to “high-quality chance” in this matchup, and it runs right through that weakness.
On the ball, Villa can pull Palace’s back three into decisions they don’t want to make. If Rogers drifts into the half-space and Buendía finds pockets, Palace’s midfield line has to choose between stepping up to engage or dropping to protect the space between lines. Step up too eagerly, and Watkins becomes a through-ball target. Drop too deep, and Villa can settle into shots from the edge of the box, a route they already like because they create long shot opportunities.
For Palace, the game plan looks like controlled restraint and direct bursts. Their style includes playing in their own half and using long balls, and with Mateta up front — eight league goals and 2.5 shots per game — they have a striker who can anchor those direct phases. Mitchell and Rodney are key here: if Palace can get their wide midfielders involved early and feed Johnson and Pino close to Mateta, they can create the kind of central overloads their style points towards.
Set pieces might decide the emotional temperature as much as the scoreboard. Palace are very weak defending set pieces, and Villa are also weak defending set pieces. That double weakness doesn’t guarantee goals; it guarantees nerves. Every corner becomes a little drama. Every wide free kick turns into a breath held. Palace have centre-backs like Guéhi and Lacroix who win aerial duels regularly — Guéhi at 2.6 aerials per game and Lacroix at 2.7 — but the collective set-piece defending is still branded as very weak. That means organisation, second balls, and reaction speed matter more than one good header.
And then there’s the offside theme. Palace are weak at avoiding offside. Villa play the offside trap. That’s an invitation for a stop-start attacking night for Palace if their timing is loose. The pass can be good; the run has to be better.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Palace’s league output is blunt and busy. They have 22 goals in 20 Premier League matches and average 11.8 shots per game, backing up the idea that they take a lot of shots and create chances. Their issue is that finishing problem: in the same league sample, Mateta is top scorer on eight goals, while Daniel Muñoz and Ismaïla Sarr have three each. The goals are spread, but the clinical edge isn’t.
The possession and passing figures underline why Palace play the way they do. They average 43.1% possession and 77.0% pass accuracy in the league. That means Palace don’t live on long spells of control; they live on moments, directness, and turnovers. It also explains why “stealing the ball from the opposition” matters so much to them — it’s the quickest route to being dangerous without having to build 20-pass moves.
Villa’s Premier League numbers show a more controlled side with a bigger attacking ceiling. They have 33 goals in 20 matches, with 11.5 shots per game, and they hold 52.7% possession with 84.9% pass accuracy. Villa take slightly fewer shots than Palace but score more, which fits “finishing scoring chances: strong” as a defining trait.
Individually, Villa’s key threats are clear. Watkins has seven league goals and averages 2 shots per game. Rogers also has seven league goals, plus four assists, making him a dual threat in transition and in structured attacks. Tielemans has four assists, Kamara has three assists, and Cash has three goals and two assists — plenty of supply lines, and not all of them obvious.
The recent sequence adds bite to it. Palace have no wins in their last six across competitions, while Villa have five wins in their last six. Villa have also seen both teams score in each of their last eight matches in all competitions. That matters because it shapes game states: Villa don’t need a perfect defensive night to win matches; they win by scoring, surviving, and scoring again.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first moment is Mateta’s ability to make Palace’s direct play stick. If Palace can hit him early and he can bring Johnson and Pino into the game, Selhurst becomes loud for the right reasons. If Villa keep him quiet, Palace’s shot volume becomes a blur without a cutting edge.
The second is Rogers versus Palace’s midfield line. Rogers has seven league goals and four assists, and Villa are strong at creating chances through individual skill and through balls. If Rogers can receive between Wharton and Hughes and turn, Villa’s attack suddenly runs at pace.
Third, watch the foul count in dangerous areas — not as a statistic, but as a feel. Palace are weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas and Villa are strong at shooting from direct free kicks. One rash challenge can hand Villa a prime moment, and Palace have already branded themselves as vulnerable at set pieces.
Finally, the set-piece duel itself could be the match’s mood swing. Palace are very weak defending set pieces, and Villa are weak defending set pieces. One corner can flip a night. One second ball can turn a scruffy passage into a lead.
What could go wrong with this read? Palace’s ability to create chances is already very strong, and Villa are weak at stopping opponents from creating chances while also weak defending against skillful players. If Palace’s finishing lands on the right side of the fine margins for once, the head-to-head comfort they’ve enjoyed can reappear quickly, and Villa’s strong away rhythm becomes irrelevant.
Best Bet for Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa
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Both Teams to Score
Crystal Palace and Aston Villa arrive at Selhurst Park with a statistical trend that makes a clean sheet for either side look unlikely. Aston Villa are currently one of the most consistent offensive forces in the league, having found the net 33 times in their first 20 matches. This scoring rate is supported by their status as a top-three side and their efficiency in front of goal, which is described as a specific strength. However, their defensive record suggests vulnerability; they have seen both teams score in each of their last eight matches across all competitions. This indicates that while they have the individual skill and through-ball capability to hurt opponents, they rarely shut them out.
On the other side, Crystal Palace have a psychological edge and a specific tactical setup that has historically punished Villa. Palace have won five of the last six meetings between these two, including a 3-0 victory at Villa Park earlier this season and a 4-1 win in early 2025. Despite being 14th in the table and currently on a six-game winless run, they maintain a “very strong” ability to create scoring chances and take a high volume of shots, averaging 11.8 per game. Jean-Philippe Mateta remains a significant threat, already boasting eight league goals this term and averaging 2.5 shots per match.
Crucially, both teams share a glaring defensive weakness: defending set pieces. Palace are “very weak” in this department, while Villa are also “weak.” Given that Palace are known to foul in dangerous areas and Villa are strong at shooting from direct free kicks, the likelihood of a set-piece goal for the visitors is high. Conversely, Palace’s ability to “steal the ball” from the opposition and use direct long balls to Mateta plays perfectly into Villa’s high defensive line and offside trap. With both sides struggling to defend the very areas the other excels in attacking, a high-scoring exchange is the logical outcome.
What could go wrong
Palace’s persistent weakness in finishing scoring chances could resurface, causing them to waste the opportunities they create against Villa’s defensive line. If Unai Emery manages to tighten the offside trap and nullify Mateta’s hold-up play, Palace could find themselves frustrated and scoreless despite high shot volume. Conversely, if Villa’s heavy recent workload leads to a lack of clinical edge from Watkins or Rogers, the game could defy recent history and turn into a low-scoring stalemate.
Correct score lean
1-2
This scoreline reflects the current disparity in form while respecting the competitive nature of this fixture at Selhurst Park. Villa are in the hunt for Champions League football and have won five of their last six matches, demonstrating the momentum needed to secure a win. However, Palace’s historical dominance in this matchup and their “very strong” chance creation mean they are highly likely to find the net at least once, especially given Villa’s streak of eight consecutive games without a clean sheet. A narrow away win balances Villa’s superior league position with Palace’s home resistance.
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