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Can Chelsea’s possession game unlock Bournemouth’s press at Stamford Bridge? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is supported by the high scoring frequency of both clubs; Salford have scored in 74% of their matches while Swindon have found the net in 84%. Salford’s defensive struggles against wing attacks and aerial duels align perfectly with Swindon’s primary offensive strengths. Conversely, Salford’s high shot volume and ability to exploit offside traps with through-balls suggest they will breach a Swindon defense that relies heavily on a high line. In a cup tie where both teams average over 1.6 goals scored per game, a clean sheet for either side appears unlikely.
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Salford City enter this tie with significant momentum, remaining unbeaten in their last seven league outings. Their home form against Swindon is particularly strong, having won their last two meetings at the Peninsula Stadium, including a 3-2 victory earlier this season. While Swindon’s clinical finishing and wing play make them almost certain to score, Salford’s superior shot volume and threat from direct free kicks should provide the decisive margin. A 2-1 scoreline reflects Salford's offensive persistence and their historical push for a landmark fourth-round appearance in the FA Cup.
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Chelsea vs Bournemouth Predictions and Best Bets
Chelsea vs Bournemouth — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below based on match analysis and implied probabilities from listed odds.
Chelsea enter as favorites at Stamford Bridge, with Bournemouth listed as significant outsiders away from home.
- Senegal’s volume and control: Across two tournament matches they’ve scored four goals and averaged 19.5 shots per game, alongside 56.4% possession and a 94.7% pass success rate.
- Benin’s tight-margin tournament so far: Two AFCON games have produced one Benin goal scored and one conceded, with 48.7% possession and an average of 11 shots per game shaping a more selective approach.
- A striker already makingconsiderable impact: Nicolas Jackson has two goals in Senegal’s two AFCON matches, while Benin’s Steve Mounié has one goal and one assist, underlining direct involvement in their attacking output.
Match Control: Average Ball Possession
Chelsea’s identity is built on short passing and high possession, while Bournemouth also maintains a relatively high share of the ball.
With an 86.3% pass success rate, Chelsea focus on patient build-up and through balls.
The visitors look to control the game in the opposition half despite their lower league position.
Attacking Intent: Shots Per Game
Supported by 30 league goals scored across 18 matches.
A similar shot volume has yielded 27 goals for the Cherries.
Chelsea and Bournemouth square up at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday with both sides looking for a cleaner finish to the year. Chelsea come into it off a 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa, while Bournemouth were on the wrong end of a 4-1 loss away at Brentford.
The likely team shapes hint at a familiar Premier League pattern: Chelsea’s possible XI reads like a 4-2-3-1, with Robert Sánchez behind a back four of Reece James, Wesley Fofana, Trevoh Chalobah and Malo Gusto, then Enzo Fernández and Moisés Caicedo as the midfield base. Ahead of them, Pedro Neto, Cole Palmer and Alejandro Garnacho support João Pedro. Bournemouth’s possible side points the same way: Djordje Petrovic in goal, a back four of Álex Jiménez, Bafodé Diakité, Marcos Senesi and Adrien Truffert, with Alex Scott and Lewis Cook in midfield, and David Brooks, Justin Kluivert and Antoine Semenyo as the attacking line.
On paper, that’s a lot of technical quality on the pitch, and plenty of players who like the ball in advanced areas. Chelsea’s profile leans heavily into possession football, short passing and through balls, with strong notes around wing play, individual skill and counter attacks. Bournemouth’s is a more combustible mix: aggressive, keen to control the game in the opposition’s half, crossing often and taking long shots, with counter attacks also marked as a strength.
That combination usually means one thing: the game can swing between spells of patient circulation and sudden, messy moments where the ball ricochets into a shooting lane. And with both sides carrying defensive vulnerabilities in specific areas, the match has the potential to be decided by a sequence rather than a single moment — a forced turnover, a second ball, a set piece, and then a finish.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Chelsea’s possible starting lineup suggests continuity in structure, even if the personnel around it can rotate. The Sánchez–James–Fofana–Chalobah–Gusto back line provides athleticism and ball-playing, and the Fernández–Caicedo pairing points towards control through central areas. The three behind João Pedro give Chelsea different angles: Neto’s direct running, Palmer’s ability to work between lines, and Garnacho’s threat arriving from wide areas into the box.
The availability section also lists a handful of Chelsea absences: M. Mudryk is suspended through a sports court decision, A. Disasi is listed as no eligibility, R. Lavia is out with a muscle strain, and L. Colwill is out with a cruciate ligament tear until 01.06.2026. None of that changes the likely base shape, but it does suggest Chelsea’s options in certain areas are shaped by circumstance as much as preference.
Bournemouth’s possible lineup reads as a compact, energetic 4-2-3-1: Petrovic behind Jiménez, Diakité, Senesi and Truffert, with Scott and Cook as the midfield screen. Brooks and Kluivert give them craft in the half-spaces, while Semenyo offers the most obvious goal threat, having scored nine league goals and added three assists.
In terms of balance, Chelsea’s XI looks geared to having the ball and building attacks with numbers, while Bournemouth’s looks built for intensity: a double pivot that can hold shape, and a front line that can spring quickly once the ball is won.
How the Match Could Be Played
Chelsea’s identity is written clearly in their style notes: possession football, short passes, attacking through the middle, and attempting through balls often. With Fernández and Caicedo likely to be the platform, the first job is to get Palmer receiving in the pockets where he can turn. The second is to move Bournemouth’s midfield screen — Scott and Cook — just enough to open the channel for a runner. That’s where João Pedro becomes more than a finisher; he’s also the connector who can drop off, set the ball, and then attack the box again.
The wide areas should matter too, because Chelsea are marked as strong at attacking down the wings and at creating chances through individual skill. Neto, Garnacho, James and Gusto in the same XI is a lot of pace and dribbling, and it can pull Bournemouth’s full-backs into constant decision-making: step out and risk space behind, or sit in and risk being pinned deep and crossed on repeatedly.
Bournemouth, though, are not set up to simply absorb. Their style includes controlling the game in the opposition’s half and attempting crosses often, with an aggressive edge. That hints at a press that tries to force rushed passes in Chelsea’s first and second phases, then immediately attack the space left behind. The matchup is intriguing because Chelsea are also described as strong at stealing the ball from the opposition — meaning you can easily picture a game where both teams try to win it back quickly, and the ball spends long stretches pinging between midfield lines rather than settling.
Where Bournemouth can hurt Chelsea is tied to their strengths and Chelsea’s one clear weakness. Bournemouth are strong on counter attacks and strong at creating chances through individual skill; Chelsea are listed as weak at stopping opponents from creating chances. That doesn’t automatically mean Bournemouth will dominate, but it does underline the risk for Chelsea when they commit bodies forward. If Chelsea’s full-backs are high and Palmer is advanced, losing the ball in the wrong lane can expose the centre-backs to a running duel they’d rather avoid.
For Chelsea, the tactical sweet spot might be controlled aggression: dominate the ball, but be ruthless in the moments when Bournemouth’s shape is stretched. The temptation is always to play one more pass. Chelsea’s profile suggests they can create through balls often; the key is the timing of those passes, and who is ready to attack the space when they arrive.
For Bournemouth, there’s a fine line between “press and play” and “press and panic”. Their weaknesses include defending set pieces, aerial duels and defending against through-ball attacks, plus a very weak note around protecting the lead. If the press isn’t connected — if the back line doesn’t squeeze, if the midfield doesn’t cover — then Chelsea’s short passing game can pull them apart and expose those through-ball vulnerabilities.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Chelsea sit 5th with 29 points from 18 league matches, scoring 30 goals and conceding 19. That matters because it supports the sense of a team that can control games: they average 58.9% possession in the league with an 86.3% pass success rate, and they take 14.1 shots per game. Those are the building blocks of sustained pressure — the ability to keep the ball, progress it, and finish moves with attempts.
Bournemouth are 15th with 22 points from 18 matches, scoring 27 and conceding 33. Their attacking volume isn’t far off Chelsea’s: 13.7 shots per game, with 52.5% possession and 80.7% pass success. That’s not a side that never sees the ball. It’s a side that plays with intent — and, at times, risk.
The individual numbers also underline the likely sources of threat. João Pedro has six league goals and three assists; Neto has five goals and three assists; Fernández has four goals. For Bournemouth, Semenyo’s nine goals and three assists stand out sharply, while Senesi’s three assists from centre-back adds a set-piece and delivery angle.
Then there’s recent history between the teams: the last meeting on 06/12/2025 finished 0-0 at Bournemouth. In a fixture that has also produced draws in recent head-to-heads, that result is a reminder that this matchup can tighten up even when both teams carry attacking talent.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first ten minutes of Chelsea’s build-up will be a tell. If Bournemouth’s aggressive approach lands cleanly, Chelsea may be forced into faster decisions, and the game can become a contest of second balls rather than a patient exercise in control. If Chelsea play through it, the visitors may find themselves defending long spells around their box, which can expose weaknesses in aerial duels and set-piece defending when crosses and corners start piling up.
Watch the Palmer zone. Chelsea’s whole attacking shape looks cleaner when he receives between midfield and defence, because it pulls centre-backs into awkward choices: step out and leave space, or hold and let him pick a pass. Bournemouth’s weakness defending through-ball attacks makes that area particularly important — one well-timed run, one pass slipped between lines, and suddenly the chance arrives without needing a dozen touches.
At the other end, Semenyo is the obvious danger man. Nine goals from a wide-forward profile is not accidental, and Bournemouth’s strengths around counter attacks and individual skill point to the kind of situations where he can do damage: open grass, quick support, and a defence trying to recover its shape.
Set pieces could be a subplot with real bite. Chelsea are marked strong at attacking set pieces and very strong at shooting from direct free kicks, while Bournemouth are flagged weak at defending set pieces. That’s the sort of contrast that can decide matches that otherwise feel even.
What could go wrong with this read? Both sides have aggressive notes attached to how opponents approach them, and games like that can become emotionally messy: early cards, broken rhythm, and a match shaped by small refereeing moments rather than clean tactical patterns. And if the finishing doesn’t match the chance creation, you can get a contest that feels like it should have been decided long before it actually is.
Best Bet for Chelsea vs Bournemouth
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Chelsea to Win
Chelsea enters this final match of the year looking to rectify a period of inconsistency that has seen them slip to fifth in the Premier League. Despite a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa in their most recent outing, where João Pedro initially gave them the lead, the tactical profile of the London club remains formidable. They have managed to collect 29 points from 18 matches, supported by a strong attacking output of 30 goals. At Stamford Bridge, they have been particularly productive in 2025, securing 12 home league victories over the calendar year.
The matchup against Bournemouth presents a specific set of advantages for the hosts. While Bournemouth plays with an aggressive press and looks to control games in the opposition half, their defensive metrics highlight significant vulnerabilities. They have conceded 33 goals this season and are noted for struggling against through-ball attacks—a direct strength of a Chelsea side that features the creative vision of Cole Palmer and Enzo Fernández. Furthermore, the visitors have a documented weakness in defending set pieces and aerial duels, areas where Chelsea’s physicality and technical delivery from players like Reece James can be decisive.
Bournemouth’s recent form is a cause for concern, coming off a heavy 4-1 loss to Brentford. Although Antoine Semenyo remains a potent threat with nine league goals, the Cherries have struggled to maintain organization away from home, conceding goals at an alarming rate during their travels. Their winless run stretches back to October, and the pressure of a visit to Stamford Bridge is likely to expose a back line that has struggled to replace key personnel. Chelsea’s ability to dominate possession—averaging nearly 59%—should eventually allow them to pull apart a Bournemouth shape that is prone to buckling when protecting leads or facing sustained pressure between the lines.
What could go wrong
Chelsea has shown a tendency to drop points from winning positions at home this season, losing 11 points in such scenarios. If Bournemouth’s high-intensity press forces early errors from Robert Sánchez or the defensive line, the visitors could exploit Chelsea’s known weakness in stopping opponents from creating chances on the counter-attack, potentially leading to a frustrating evening for the home fans.
Correct score lean
Chelsea 2-1 Bournemouth
Chelsea’s attacking record at home is consistent, having scored first in eight of their nine home league games this season. With João Pedro in goalscoring form and the creative depth of Neto and Palmer, they are well-placed to find the net at least twice against a Bournemouth side that has conceded 33 times in 18 games. However, Bournemouth’s aggressive style and Semenyo’s individual clinical edge suggest they are likely to grab a goal on the counter, especially given Chelsea’s habit of conceding in transition. A 2-1 victory reflects Chelsea’s superior quality while acknowledging their current defensive fragility.
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