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Can Burnley’s back three and right-side outlet disrupt Newcastle’s control at Turf Moor? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Newcastle hold a massive psychological advantage with seven straight Premier League wins against Burnley, including a 2-1 victory just weeks ago. While Burnley are desperate for points, their statistical profile shows deep-seated issues; they possess the ball less (41.5%) and struggle with passing accuracy (77.6%). Newcastle's ability to create high-quality chances from inside the box (69% of shots) and their strength in set-piece situations should allow them to overcome a Burnley side that is statistically weak at defending both dead-ball scenarios and rapid transitions.
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This scoreline reflects the most recent meeting between the two sides on December 6th, which Newcastle won 2-1. Historically, Burnley are incredibly consistent at home in this fixture, having scored exactly one goal in all seven of their Premier League home games against the Magpies. With Newcastle’s defense keeping only one clean sheet in their last six outings, a Burnley goal is likely, but the visitors' overall squad quality and historical dominance point toward them ultimately securing all three points.
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Burnley vs Newcastle United Predictions and Best Bets
Burnley vs Newcastle United — bet365 Market Snapshot
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Newcastle have won the last seven Premier League encounters, including a 2-1 victory earlier this month.
- Territory tilt: Newcastle average 52.2% possession with 83.2% pass accuracy in the league, while Burnley sit at 41.5% and 77.6% — a gap that can decide who plays in whose half.
- Where the shots come from: Newcastle’s shot map leans into the box (69% inside), while Burnley take 42% of attempts from outside — a contrast that often shapes chance quality and second-ball pressure.
- Head-to-head pressure: Newcastle are unbeaten in nine against Burnley in all competitions and have won their last seven Premier League meetings, including a 2-1 win on 6 December after leading 2-0 at half-time.
Match Control: Average Possession (%)
Newcastle’s style prioritises territorial dominance, while Burnley often operate with limited time on the ball.
Burnley’s lower possession reflects their reliance on direct play and quick transitions.
The visitors look to control the tempo in the opposition half to create crossing opportunities.
Attacking Quality: Shots From Inside Box (%)
A comparison of shot selection shows who is finding higher-value scoring positions.
With 42% of attempts coming from outside the area, Burnley often settle for lower-percentage efforts.
Newcastle consistently get into the ‘danger zone’ before pulling the trigger.
Burnley head into the final days of 2025 still scrapping for traction, and a visit from Newcastle United to Turf Moor is about as sharp a test as you can set yourself when you’re trying to drag a season back onto the tracks. This is a Premier League meeting with the table giving it immediate bite: Burnley are 19th with 12 points, while Newcastle sit 14th on 23.
The recent head-to-head adds another layer of pressure. Newcastle won 2-1 when the sides met on 6 December, leading 2-0 at half-time, and the longer run is even more unforgiving: Newcastle are unbeaten in their last nine matches against Burnley in all competitions, and have won their last seven Premier League encounters.
That history doesn’t decide Tuesday on its own, of course — but it does shape the mood. Burnley need a night that feels like a reset. Newcastle need a night that looks like control
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Burnley’s possible XI suggests a back three with wing-backs: Dúbravka; Laurent, Ekdal, Humphreys; Walker, Ugochukwu, Florentino, Pires; Edwards, Broja, Bruun Larsen. If that’s close to the plan, it reads like a side looking for stability first and then quick routes forward. With three centre-backs behind them and Walker and Pires providing the width, Burnley can defend their box with numbers and still have an out-ball down the flanks.
There are absences listed too: M. Ndayishimiye (unknown injury), M. Amdouni (cruciate ligament tear) and C. Roberts (knee injury). A. Tuanzebe is noted as called up to a national team, which is relevant given he’s also named elsewhere in the squad information.
Newcastle’s possible XI points to their familiar 4-3-3: Ramsdale; Miley, Thiaw, Schär, Hall; Guimarães, Tonali, Ramsey; Murphy, Woltemade, Gordon. It’s a shape built to own territory, keep the ball moving, and keep the front line supplied. With Guimarães and Tonali in the middle, Newcastle can set the tempo and squeeze the pitch, while Gordon and Murphy offer natural width around Woltemade.
How the Match Could Be Played
Burnley’s profile hints at a very specific kind of game plan. They’re labelled as playing in their own half, using long balls, and attacking down the right — and those themes fit the likely XI. With Walker on the right side and Edwards ahead of him, that flank could become Burnley’s main escape route: win it, shift it quickly, and try to turn Newcastle around before they can settle into their press.
The risk is obvious. If Burnley’s possession is fragile — and it’s described as very weak — inviting Newcastle onto you can become a long evening of defending wave after wave. That makes the first pass out, the second ball, and the timing of Broja’s movement absolutely central. In a front three of Edwards, Broja and Bruun Larsen, Burnley’s best moments may come when Broja pins a centre-back, one of the wide forwards runs beyond him, and the wing-back arrives to keep the attack alive rather than letting it fizzle into a hopeful cross.
Newcastle, meanwhile, are characterised as wanting to control the game in the opposition’s half, play with width, and attempt crosses often, with a consistent tilt to attacking down the right. That creates an intriguing mirror: both sides see the right side as a natural lane. The difference is Newcastle will likely try to establish it through sustained possession and territorial pressure, whereas Burnley may be looking to access it through direct play and quick transitions.
So where does the match hinge? One big area is what happens behind Burnley’s wing-backs. If Walker and Pires are pushed deep, Burnley’s wide forwards can be stranded and Broja can end up fighting alone for long clearances. If Walker and Pires step higher to make Burnley a threat, the space either side of the outside centre-backs becomes a target — especially with Gordon and Murphy holding width and looking to receive early.
Newcastle’s 4-3-3 also gives them natural options to overload Burnley’s midfield two. If Burnley line up with Ugochukwu and Florentino as a pair, Newcastle can place three central midfielders against them and try to create free players between the lines. That doesn’t automatically mean intricate through-balls; it can simply mean recycling the ball quickly until a crossing angle opens, or forcing Burnley’s back three to step out and break their own spacing.
The set-piece angle matters too, because the characteristics point in opposite directions. Burnley are marked as weak defending set pieces, while Newcastle are marked strong attacking set pieces and also strong defending set pieces. If Newcastle earn territory and corners, that strength-versus-weakness clash becomes a very real route to chances, even if open play feels clogged.
Then there’s the transition battle. Burnley are marked as very weak defending counter attacks, and Newcastle are marked as weak defending counter attacks and very weak protecting the lead. That combination suggests the match could swing on a couple of moments: one turnover, one broken press, one quick run beyond the ball — and suddenly the “script” is being rewritten.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Burnley’s overall league picture helps explain why they may prefer a more protected shape. In the Premier League they have 19 goals in 18 games and have conceded 34, and their average possession is 41.5% with 77.6% passing accuracy. That isn’t just “less of the ball”; it suggests they often have to play without rhythm, and when they do have it, they’re not completing passes at a rate that naturally sustains long spells.
Their shot volume underlines that too: 8.9 shots per game in the league, and 187 total shots across the matches shown with an average of 9.35 per game in the shots breakdown. A notable split sits inside those attempts: 42% of Burnley’s shots are from outside the box. That aligns with the listed strength of creating long shot opportunities and the style note to take long shots — which can be useful as a pressure release, but also a way of giving the ball straight back if the shot quality isn’t there.
Newcastle’s league numbers point to a different kind of match control. They have 23 points from 18 games, with 23 scored and 23 conceded, and average 52.2% possession with 83.2% passing accuracy. Their shot volume is also higher: 12.3 shots per game in the league, and the shots breakdown lists 358 total shots at 13.26 per game, with 69% of attempts coming from inside the box. That’s a big tell. It suggests Newcastle are not just shooting more; they are more often getting into the zones that force goalkeepers and defenders into proper work.
The recent-results snapshots reinforce the “fine margins” feel. Burnley’s last two league games shown at Turf Moor are 0-0 vs Everton and 0-1 vs Crystal Palace. Newcastle’s last two league away games shown are 0-1 at Manchester United and 0-1 at Sunderland, with a 2-2 draw at Bayer Leverkusen in between. There’s enough there to imagine a game that spends long stretches on a knife-edge.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first “moment” is whether Burnley can make that right side a genuine outlet rather than a last resort. If Walker and Edwards can link early — even if it’s just winning a throw, a foul, or a corner — Burnley can at least move the game away from their own box and stop Newcastle setting their defensive line on the halfway stripe. If Newcastle pin Burnley in, those long shots Burnley tend to generate may become less of a plan and more of a plea.
The second is the central midfield squeeze. Newcastle’s trio of Guimarães, Tonali and Ramsey has the look of a unit that can circulate possession and then step in to counter-press. Burnley’s Ugochukwu and Florentino will be asked to cover a lot of ground and make good decisions under pressure. One loose touch in front of a back three and Newcastle’s wide players are already running at defenders who don’t want to be dragged into the channels.
The third is set pieces. Newcastle’s strength attacking them meets Burnley’s weakness defending them, and that can turn a “quiet” half into a scoreboard event. Likewise, Newcastle’s strength defending set pieces could blunt one of Burnley’s most realistic ways of nicking territory and chances if open play is difficult.
Finally, keep an eye on the match state if Newcastle go ahead. With Newcastle noted as very weak protecting the lead, and Burnley noted as strong protecting the lead, the game could flip emotionally depending on who scores first — not because of vibes, but because of how each side is described as managing the moments that follow.
What could go wrong with this read? A match can ignore profiles and patterns in an instant: an early goal can tear up the expected tempo, a deflection can turn a low-quality shot into a problem, and a single set-piece duel can become the defining event. If Burnley’s long-shot habit lands perfectly, or if Newcastle’s territorial control doesn’t translate into clear chances, you can end up with a game that feels “obvious” in the build-up and stubbornly strange in reality.
Best Bet for Burnley vs Newcastle United
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Newcastle United to Win
Newcastle United arrive at Turf Moor with a formidable historical and psychological edge, having won each of their last seven Premier League meetings against Burnley. This sequence includes a 2-1 victory earlier this month, where the tactical gap between the two sides was evident despite the close scoreline. Burnley sit 19th in the table with just 12 points and have struggled significantly against top-flight opposition, as all three of their league wins this season have come against teams currently in the bottom six or recently promoted.
The statistical profile of both teams further supports an away victory. Newcastle average 52.2% possession and a passing accuracy of 83.2%, allowing them to dictate the tempo and territorial control. In contrast, Burnley’s possession drops to 41.5% with a passing accuracy of 77.6%, making it difficult for them to sustain pressure or move the ball effectively out of their own half. Furthermore, Newcastle’s shot quality is notably superior; while Burnley take 42% of their shots from outside the box, Newcastle record 69% of their attempts from inside the area, forcing goalkeepers into high-value saves.
The tactical matchup also favours the visitors. Burnley are specifically noted as weak in defending set pieces and very weak at defending counter-attacks. Newcastle, meanwhile, are strong both in attacking and defending set plays, which could provide the breakthrough if open play becomes congested. Although Burnley have shown signs of improvement with back-to-back draws against Bournemouth and Everton, they failed to register a single shot on target in their most recent home game. Given Newcastle’s depth and their ability to create 29 big chances this season compared to Burnley’s modest output, the visitors have the tools to break down a resilient but limited home side.
What could go wrong: Newcastle have struggled for consistency on the road this season, losing five of their last six away league fixtures. If Burnley can capitalize on Newcastle’s noted weakness in protecting leads or if the visitors fail to convert their high-volume chances into goals, the match could drift into a low-scoring draw similar to Burnley’s recent stalemate with Everton.
Correct score lean
Newcastle United to win 2-1
This scoreline is the most consistent with the recent history and current tactical trends of both clubs. Newcastle defeated Burnley 2-1 just three weeks ago, and four of the last seven Premier League meetings between these two have ended with a one-goal margin. While Newcastle possess the offensive quality to find the net—having scored 23 goals this season—they have kept only one clean sheet in their last six league games. Burnley have scored exactly once in all seven of their previous Premier League home meetings against Newcastle, suggesting they are likely to find a breakthrough at Turf Moor even in defeat.
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