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Can Brighton finally turn those draws into a statement — or will Palace steal the M23 derby on their terms? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Brighton have drawn a league-high 10 games, including their last outing, while this fixture has seen 10 draws in 24 meetings. The tactical clash between Brighton’s possession and Palace’s counter-attacking resilience often cancels each other out. With both teams separated by just two points, a stalemate is the most statistically backed outcome.
Read Rationale ▾
A 1-1 draw fits the profile perfectly. Brighton frequently concede late goals (32% in the final 10 mins), while Palace have the tools to score on the break but rarely dominate possession. Given the history of tight margins in this derby and both teams’ recent form, a low-scoring draw is highly plausible.
Readers’ Tip
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The Amex is ready for a derby that never needs selling. Brighton and Crystal Palace arrive separated by just two points, both clear of trouble but still chasing a spark to keep fading European ambitions breathing.
Match Preview
- Draw Specialists, Still in Touch: Brighton sit 13th with 31 points after 10 draws (the league’s highest), so one clean finish could flip their whole mood fast.
- Style Clash in One Line: Brighton average 53% possession and 13.25 shots, while Palace sit at 44% possession with 11.63 shots — control versus disruption.
- This Derby Loves a Stalemate: Across 24 meetings, there have been 10 draws, and the last clash ended 0-0 — tight margins, noisy moments, fine lines.
Brighton vs Crystal Palace — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Brighton’s habit of drawing games combined with the derby nature makes the draw a strong statistical contender.
A tight affair is predicted, with the 1-1 draw and narrow home wins featuring prominently in the probability charts.
The stats point to a balanced game, with Under 2.5 goals and BTTS markets showing tight probabilities.
Welbeck leads the anytime scorer market, with Mateta close behind as the main threat for Palace.
Fabian Hurzeler’s Brighton have looked competitive, but the league table keeps shouting the same problem: 10 draws and not enough ruthless moments. The latest one stung — a 97th-minute Everton equaliser from Beto turned three points into one. Oliver Glasner’s Palace aren’t flying either, but they’ve shown they can make away days awkward, and this derby’s “unfinished business” is obvious after that 0-0 earlier in the season.
Brighton’s best football comes when they stitch short passes through the middle and keep the pitch tilted. Their style leans into that: attack through the middle, short passes, long shots, and an aggressive edge. With 13.25 shots per match and 1.53 xG, they don’t need a perfect opening — they need territory and repetition. But those finishing moments haven’t landed often enough.
Possession Control: Average Per Match
Brighton’s game revolves around controlling the ball, while Palace are happier to concede territory and strike on the counter.
Brighton consistently look to dictate play through central areas, reflected in their higher possession stats.
Palace often cede possession, focusing instead on rapid transitions and efficiency with the ball they do see.
Attacking Threat: Shots Per Match
Brighton create more shooting opportunities, but Palace remain dangerous despite fewer attempts.
Generating over 13 shots a game highlights Brighton’s attacking intent, though conversion remains their challenge.
Palace take fewer shots but focus on creating quality chances through direct play.
Team News & Probable Lineups
- Brighton: Jason Steele is injured, leaving options behind Bart Verbruggen thinner.
- Crystal Palace: No confirmed absences listed.
Probable Lineup (Brighton): Verbruggen; Kadioglu, van Hecke, Dunk, De Cuyper; Baleba, Ayari; Mitoma, Groß, Rutter; Welbeck
Probable Lineup (Crystal Palace): Henderson; Lacroix, Richards, Riad; Muñoz, Lerma, Hughes, Mitchell; Sarr, Pino; Brennan Johnson
Brighton’s set-up screams ball retention and central combinations, with Groß and Rutter shaping the pockets for Mitoma and Welbeck. Palace’s shape looks built for a lower block and quick breaks — if Brighton’s full-backs fly on, Sarr and Pino have space to attack fast.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Brighton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 15th |
| Points | 31 | 29 |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-10-7 | 7-8-9 |
| Goals (for/against) | 34 / 32 | 25 / 29 |
| Shots per match | 13.25 | 11.63 |
| Average possession | 53% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 33% |
Brighton should see more of the ball and spend longer in Palace territory. Palace look happier without possession, with a game plan built around forcing errors and springing forward quickly. Brighton games regularly turn into “both teams score” battles, but Palace carry a stronger clean-sheet habit — that tension could define the afternoon.
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Glasner’s Palace bring a different rhythm. They’re strong at stealing the ball and creating chances, but they’re also tagged by a key flaw: keeping possession of the ball is not their comfort zone. So they’ll likely let Brighton have it, then try to flip the pitch with long balls and through balls, and attacks launched from their own half.
The problem for Brighton? Those finishing moments haven’t landed often enough. They have 10 draws, and they’ve been punished late too, like that Everton equaliser in the 97th minute. This derby is the ultimate patience test: keep the tempo high without forcing the wrong pass, because Palace are built to pounce on loose touches and rushed decisions.
Key Moments to Watch
Late chaos is a real factor: Brighton score 32% of their goals in the 81’–90’ window, and Palace hit 20% of theirs late too — this fixture can snap at the end. Derby discipline will also matter; Brighton’s card leaders include Lewis Dunk and Jan Paul van Hecke, while Palace’s include Tyrick Mitchell and Jefferson Lerma. One mistimed challenge can tilt the balance.
What could go wrong? Brighton can dominate the ball and still get stung if they rush the final pass or give Palace transition moments. Palace can sit deep all afternoon and still lose control if they concede cheap set pieces or stack fouls in dangerous areas. And if it stays tight late, the derby edge — nerves, noise, one decision — can decide everything.
Market Explainer
Match Result
How it works: You bet on the final outcome of the match after 90 minutes: Home Win, Away Win, or Draw. Simple and straightforward.
Correct Score
How it works: You predict the exact final scoreline. High risk due to the precision needed, but it offers much higher odds and returns.
Other opportunities in this market: “Draw No Bet” offers a safety net, refunding your stake if the game ends in a draw. “Under 2.5 Goals” is also popular for tight derbies where defences might dominate.
Pick 1: Match Result – Draw
Brighton have become the Premier League’s draw specialists, sharing the points in 10 of their matches so far. This tendency to stalemate, combined with Crystal Palace’s resilience, makes the draw a standout option. The derby factor adds another layer of intensity, often resulting in tight, cagey affairs where neither side wants to lose. Historical data supports this, with 10 draws in the last 24 meetings between these two rivals.
📊 Tactical Indicators
- Brighton have drawn a league-high 10 games this season.
- Crystal Palace have recorded 8 draws in their 24 matches.
- The last meeting between these sides ended in a 0-0 stalemate.
Tactically, Brighton’s possession-heavy style often hits a wall against well-organised defences like Palace’s. Palace, happy to absorb pressure and counter, will likely frustrate the hosts. With both teams closely matched in the table (separated by just 2 points) and neither in blistering form, cancelling each other out feels like the most logical script for this M23 derby.
Risk Factor: A moment of individual brilliance or a red card in this heated derby could easily tip the balance in favour of either side.
Pick 2: Correct Score 1-1
A 1-1 scoreline is a classic outcome for a match with this profile. Brighton struggle to keep clean sheets (just 21% this season) but almost always find the net at home. Palace, while efficient on the break, rarely score in bunches away from Selhurst Park. The tactical dynamic suggests Brighton scoring through sustained pressure, only for Palace to nick one back on the counter or from a set-piece.
Brighton’s habit of conceding late goals (32% in the final 10 minutes) keeps the 1-1 alive even if they lead early. Palace have the resilience to stay in the game and grab a point. Both teams averaging just over a goal a game reinforces the likelihood of a low-scoring draw where defences bend but don’t completely break.
Risk Factor: An early goal could open the game up more than expected, leading to a 2-2 thriller or a 2-1 win.
Questions & Answers
⊕ What is the M23 derby?
It’s the rivalry match between Brighton & Hove Albion and Crystal Palace. Despite the distance, it’s a fierce rivalry dating back to the 1970s.
⊕ Why do Brighton draw so many games?
Brighton often dominate possession but struggle to finish chances, allowing opponents to stay in the game and snatch a point.
⊕ Is “Both Teams To Score” a good bet?
Yes, Brighton’s BTTS rate is high at 71%, suggesting goals at both ends are likely, even if the match ends in a draw.
⊕ Who is Brighton’s key player?
Kaoru Mitoma is crucial for his dribbling and creativity, often being the spark for Brighton’s attacks.
⊕ Who is Crystal Palace’s main threat?
Jean-Philippe Mateta provides a physical presence and goal threat upfront, crucial for Palace’s counter-attacking style.
⊕ What happens if I bet on a draw and one team wins?
You lose the bet. A “Draw No Bet” wager would refund your stake in that scenario, but offers lower odds.
⊕ Are cards likely in this match?
Yes, derbies often feature more fouls and cards due to the intensity. Checking card markets could be worthwhile.
⊕ What is a “Double Chance” bet?
Double Chance allows you to cover two outcomes, like “Brighton or Draw”. It increases your chances of winning but reduces the odds.
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