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Can Bournemouth turn chaos into points, or will Liverpool’s unbeaten machine finally click in the league? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Both teams have scored in all of Bournemouth’s last 8 matches. Liverpool dominate possession and shots, but their defensive weaknesses against set pieces and long shots suggest the Cherries will find the net before Liverpool’s superior quality secures their first league win of 2026.
Read Rationale ▾
Bournemouth have conceded 41 goals this season and show significant weaknesses in defending through balls and skillful players. Liverpool’s high shot volume and 86.3% pass success should see them edge a tight contest where Bournemouth’s clinical finishing in the box keeps it close.
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Bournemouth vs Liverpool Predictions and Best Bets
Bournemouth vs Liverpool — bet365 Market Snapshot
Informational layout. Any probabilities shown are implied from the listed odds (where available). Prices can change.
Market pricing for the 90-minute result at the Vitality Stadium across the three primary outcomes.
Implied probabilities (from listed odds) for goal volume and both teams scoring in this fixture.
- Bold but Blunt Formline: Liverpool have drawn four Premier League matches in a row, and they’ve gone winless in the league since a 2-1 victory over Wolves at the end of 2025 — pressure builds fast when the wins stop.
- Vitality Goals Feel Inevitable: Bournemouth have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6 Premier League games, and both teams have scored in all of Bournemouth’s last 8 matches in all competitions — this fixture screams momentum swings.
- Possession v Punch: Liverpool average 61.5% possession and 15.5 shots per game in the league, while Bournemouth are at 49.8% and 13.6 shots per game — one side wants to suffocate you, the other wants to sting you.
Attacking Volume: Shots per League Game
Both sides maintain a high offensive output, with Liverpool’s sustained pressure set against Bournemouth’s aggressive transition play.
This volume reflects their 61.5% possession and tactical setup designed to keep opponents pinned in their own half.
Bournemouth remain highly productive in front of goal despite seeing less of the ball than the league’s top four sides.
Technical Efficiency: Pass Success Rate
The difference in technical stability illustrates how each side manages periods of pressure and transitions.
High accuracy allows Liverpool to recycle possession and wait for defensive gaps to appear in the final third.
A lower percentage is typical of Bournemouth’s more direct, high-risk passing style into advanced areas.
Vitality Stadium under the lights, and the pitch is set for a classic clash of tempo and temperament. Bournemouth arrive off a 1-1 draw with Brighton, still searching for rhythm after a recent run that’s included plenty of tight games and plenty of noise. Liverpool roll in buzzing from a 3-0 Champions League win at Marseille, but here’s the rub: they’re still chasing their first Premier League victory of 2026.
Arne Slot’s side haven’t been beaten in 13 matches across all competitions, yet their league campaign has stalled with four straight draws, the latest a frustrating 1-1 with Burnley. Bournemouth, sitting 15th, won’t care about Liverpool’s wider streaks. They’ll see opportunity: a high-energy home match, a chance to disrupt, and a chance to make the big moments theirs.
Team News & Lineups
Bournemouth (Manager: Andoni Iraola)
Injuries / absences
- Veljko Milosavljević (knee injury) — out until 16.02.2026
- Tyler Adams (knee medial ligament tear) — out until 16.02.2026
- W. Dennis (ankle injury) — return date not specified
- Ben Gannon-Doak (hamstring injury) — out until 21.02.2026
Probable lineup (as listed):
Petrovic; Smith, Hill, Senesi, Truffert; Scott, Cook; Jimenez, Kroupi, Adli; Evanilson
Implication: Bournemouth’s midfield balance matters. With Tyler Adams sidelined, the engine-room work falls hard on Alex Scott and Lewis Cook — which can tilt the game towards longer spells without the ball and sharper transitions when it’s won.
Liverpool (Manager: Arne Slot)
Injuries / absences
- None explicitly listed.
Probable lineup (as listed):
Alisson; Frimpong, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Jones; Salah, Szoboszlai, Wirtz; Ekitike
Implication: This XI screams control and threat in the same breath. With Ryan Gravenberch (rating 7.07) and Curtis Jones underpinning it, Liverpool can lock the ball in Bournemouth’s half — and with Mohamed Salah, Dominik Szoboszlai and Florian Wirtz feeding Hugo Ekitike (8 league goals), the away side can turn sterile possession into a flurry quickly.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Premier League) | Bournemouth | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 4th |
| Points (GP) | 27 (22) | 36 (22) |
| Goals for | 35 | 33 |
| Goals against | 41 | 29 |
| Shots per game | 13.6 | 15.5 |
| Possession | 49.8% | 61.5% |
| Pass success | 79.7% | 86.3% |
| Aerials won | 16.1 | 17.3 |
| Yellow cards | 62 | 50 |
| Fouls | 311 | 310 |
Liverpool dominate the ball and the volume: 61.5% possession and 15.5 shots per game is a steady drip of pressure. Bournemouth aren’t passive, though — 13.6 shots per game is real intent, and their goals-for number (35) says they can hurt teams even when the match feels messy.
The defensive picture is the warning label. Bournemouth have conceded 41 in 22, Liverpool 29 — and if this turns into a game of broken shape and repeated transitions, it suits the side with more control, cleaner passing, and bigger chance-creators.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Liverpool’s plan: squeeze the pitch, then strike
Liverpool want the match played in Bournemouth’s half. Their style is clear: possession football, short passes, and control in the opposition’s half. With 86.3% pass success and a high share of shots coming inside the box (66%), the pressure isn’t just territory — it’s about moving Bournemouth until a lane opens.
The key is how Liverpool’s creators occupy the “in-between” spaces. Salah, Szoboszlai and Wirtz all carry threat in different ways: direct running, long shots, disguised passes. Liverpool are also strong at attacking down the wings, and that matters against a Bournemouth side that likes long balls, crosses, and attacking down the left — because those same wide areas can become the battleground for second balls and turnovers.
But there’s a soft underbelly in this Liverpool profile too. They’re weak defending set pieces and long shots, and they’re very weak at stopping opponents creating chances. So if Bournemouth can force Liverpool to defend deeper than they want, the match stops being comfortable.
Bournemouth’s plan: speed, individual skill, and disruption
Bournemouth’s strengths read like a warning to anyone trying to cruise: counter-attacks, creating chances through individual skill, and coming back from losing positions. They also take a lot of shots, and their shot map leans heavily to the danger zone: 62% of Bournemouth’s shots are inside the box.
Bournemouth’s potential problem is what happens when Liverpool settle. Bournemouth’s weaknesses include defending through balls, skillful players, and set pieces, plus “very weak” protecting the lead. If Liverpool go ahead, Bournemouth can’t afford that frantic ten-minute spell where the shape stretches and the match becomes a chase.
Where it swings: tempo and discipline
This might not be a polite game. Bournemouth’s style is listed as aggressive, while Liverpool are non-aggressive and teams “play aggressively against them”. Bournemouth also average 2.58 yellow cards per game (62 total), compared to Liverpool’s 1.56 (50 total). If Bournemouth overheat — mistimed presses, cheap fouls, cards that limit duels — Liverpool’s technicians will slow the match, win territory, and keep Bournemouth running.
But if Bournemouth get the game into a sprint — quick restarts, messy second balls, early shots — Liverpool’s run of league draws shows they can be frustrated when rhythm breaks.
Key Moments to Watch
- First-half pattern: Bournemouth’s average time of first goal scored is 39’, while Liverpool’s is 46’. If Bournemouth land an early punch, the stadium wakes up — and Liverpool’s patience gets tested again.
- Set pieces and second balls: Both sides carry listed weaknesses defending set pieces. One well-timed delivery, one loose clearance, and the match flips.
- Shots from range: Liverpool are weak defending long shots, while Bournemouth are very strong shooting from direct free kicks and like to take long shots. Expect attempts when the box is crowded.
- Transition moments: Liverpool’s control invites pressure, but it also invites Bournemouth to gamble. One intercepted pass, one forward carry, and suddenly Evanilson is charging at a backpedalling line.
What could go wrong?
For Liverpool, it’s the familiar story: loads of ball, not enough cutting edge, then a concession from a set piece or a long shot and another draw is on the table. For Bournemouth, it’s emotional overreach — chasing the press, conceding space for through balls, and letting Liverpool’s wide threats turn the match into wave after wave in their own third.
Best Bet for Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Can Bournemouth’s chaos break Liverpool’s drawing streak?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring | BOU: Goals in last 8; LIV: 15.5 shots/gm | Back BTTS |
| Defense | BOU: 41 conceded; LIV: 4 draws in a row | Liverpool & BTTS |
| History | BOU: Over 2.5 in 4/6; LIV: 13 unbeaten | Over 2.5 Goals |
Liverpool to Win & Both Teams to Score
Liverpool enter this fixture as an unbeaten machine in broader terms, but they are currently stalled in a cycle of Premier League draws. They average 61.5% possession and a high volume of 15.5 shots per game. This control allows them to dictate the tempo, yet they have struggled to convert this dominance into three points in the league throughout early 2026.
Bournemouth are the ultimate disruptors for a side seeking stability. Every one of Bournemouth’s last eight matches across all competitions has seen both teams find the back of the net. They are a side built on momentum and chaos, with 62% of their shots coming from inside the penalty area. This means when they do attack, they do so from high-value positions that test even the most organized defenses.
Liverpool have specific defensive vulnerabilities that play directly into the home side’s hands. They are weak at defending set pieces and long shots. Bournemouth are very strong at shooting from direct free kicks and thrive on individual skill to create chances. Bournemouth possess the clinical edge to exploit Liverpool’s inability to stop opponents from creating chances.
However, Bournemouth’s own defensive record is the deciding factor. They have conceded 41 goals in just 22 matches and are “very weak” at protecting a lead. Liverpool’s attacking lineup, featuring Hugo Ekitike and Mohamed Salah, will inevitably benefit from Bournemouth’s aggressive style, which often leaves lanes open for through balls. Liverpool’s 86.3% pass success rate will eventually dismantle a Bournemouth defense that has struggled to maintain clean sheets.
What could go wrong?
Liverpool’s recent league form consists of four consecutive draws. If Bournemouth successfully frustrate Liverpool’s creators and capitalize on a set piece, the match could easily fall into another 1-1 stalemate. Additionally, Liverpool’s heavy possession can sometimes result in “sterile” dominance where they fail to convert shots into goals despite the high volume.
Correct Score Lean
The Score: Bournemouth 1-2 Liverpool
This scoreline reflects Bournemouth’s inevitable scoring streak while acknowledging Liverpool’s superior tactical control. Bournemouth have seen both teams score in eight straight games, making a clean sheet for Liverpool highly unlikely. However, Bournemouth’s weakness in defending through balls and skillful players aligns perfectly with the strengths of Salah and Wirtz. Liverpool’s 15.5 shots per game against a defense that has conceded 41 goals this season suggests the visitors will find the decisive second goal. A tight 2-1 victory ends Liverpool’s drawing streak while maintaining Bournemouth’s trend of high-action, high-scoring matches.
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