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Will Arsenal’s right-side rhythm be enough to finally crack Aston Villa in this Emirates rematch? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is supported by the current form of both clubs and their historical head-to-head encounters. Arsenal have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three home league games, while the visitors have scored in six consecutive away trips to the Emirates. With both sides averaging over 1.5 goals per game this season and featuring in-form attackers like Morgan Rogers and Viktor Gyökeres, defensive lapses are expected. The previous meeting earlier this month also saw both teams find the net in a 2-1 result, reinforcing the likelihood of a repeat.
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A 2-1 victory for the Gunners is the most logical outcome given that seven of their 13 league wins this season have been by a single goal. Their two most recent home fixtures against Brighton and Wolves both ended with this exact scoreline. Furthermore, the visitors have been involved in 2-1 results in four of their last five games across all competitions. This scoreline accounts for Arsenal’s superior home record (eight wins from nine) while respecting the visitors' scoring streak and the competitive nature of their recent head-to-head meetings.
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Arsenal vs Aston Villa Predictions and Best Bets
Arsenal vs Aston Villa — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing highlights and implied outcome probabilities based on current bet365 match odds.
Arsenal enter as heavy home favorites at the Emirates, while Villa look to continue their 11-game winning streak.
- Arsenal’s pressure game has a clear output: In 18 Premier League matches, Arsenal have scored 33 goals and average 15 shots per game, alongside 59.4% possession and 85.5% pass accuracy.
- Villa’s form is powered by a wide-forward finisher: Morgan Rogers has seven league goals and three assists, while Villa have scored 29 goals in 18 league matches.
- The rematch is grounded in a recent result: Aston Villa beat Arsenal 2-1 on 06/12/2025, and both sides arrive with multiple league scorers led by Gyökeres (five) and Watkins (five).
Attacking Volume: Average League Goals
Both teams have shown high efficiency in front of goal, with Arsenal maintaining the league’s top position through consistent offensive pressure.
With 33 goals in 18 games, the hosts possess a varied attack with multiple goalscorers contributing.
Villa have netted 29 times in 18 league fixtures, fueled by Rogers’ seven goals this term.
Territorial Control: Average Possession %
The Gunners look to dictate tempo via short passing and high territorial pressure.
Villa are comfortable without the ball, using transitions and through balls to create openings.
Meeting for the second time in four weeks, Arsenal and Aston Villa reconvene on Tuesday evening at the Emirates with plenty already written into the storyline. Villa prevailed in Birmingham less than a month ago, a 2-1 win that still sits loudly in Arsenal’s recent memory. The return fixture arrives with Arsenal still holding top spot, and Villa riding what’s described as an incredible success streak.
It’s a match-up that tends to reward clarity. Arsenal’s best sides don’t merely dominate the ball; they decide where the ball is allowed to go. Villa, meanwhile, have shown they can win different types of game across this run, including the one that matters most here: the last one against the same opponents. That alone adds an edge to the atmosphere, because the league table pressure meets the very human desire to settle a score.
And the personnel listed for Tuesday hints at two teams ready to play football rather than hide from it. Arsenal’s possible XI is stacked with technical control and runners in the front line. Villa’s possible XI has a proper mix too: a base that can pass, a set of attackers who can create chances through individual skill, and a focal point in Ollie Watkins.
This is the kind of fixture where the first few patterns matter. If Arsenal establish their rhythm early, the Emirates can become a conveyor belt of pressure. If Villa disrupt that rhythm, the match can flip into something sharper and more chaotic. Either way, it’s a fascinating rematch with very little need for extra marketing.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Arsenal’s possible starting lineup reads like a shape built around control and layers of attack: David Raya in goal; Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Piero Hincapié and Myles Lewis-Skelly across the back; Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice and Martin Ødegaard in midfield; and Bukayo Saka, Viktor Gyökeres and Eberechi Eze as the front line.
The balance is striking. Zubimendi and Rice give Arsenal a double platform of security and passing range, while Ødegaard’s presence suggests Arsenal want to conduct play from central areas rather than lean purely on wide isolation. Up top, Gyökeres is flanked by two players who can threaten from different angles: Saka’s right-sided production and Eze’s ability to appear in pockets and carry the ball into dangerous zones.
Villa’s possible lineup points to a 4-2-3-1 of their own: Emiliano Martínez; Lamare Bogarde, Ezri Konsa, Victor Lindelöf, Ian Maatsen; Amadou Onana, Youri Tielemans; John McGinn, Emiliano Buendía, Morgan Rogers; Watkins. That gives them a clear spine through the pitch, plus multiple creators behind the striker.
What it implies is a contest between Arsenal’s ability to control territory and Villa’s ability to turn moments into chances. Arsenal’s squad profile speaks to creating scoring chances and protecting a lead. Villa’s speaks to protecting a lead as well, but also to coming back from losing positions. That contrast can shape the psychology of the night: Arsenal looking to impose, Villa believing they can survive rough spells and still find a way back into the game.
How the Match Could Be Played
Arsenal’s style notes paint a familiar picture: possession football, short passes, controlling the game in the opposition’s half, and attempting through balls often. In practice, that usually means Arsenal will try to pin Villa back, compress the space between Villa’s midfield and defensive lines, and move the ball quickly enough to force one defensive decision too many.
The likely attacking route is also signposted: Arsenal are noted for attacking down the right. With Saka in that front line and Timber behind him, the right side looks like the natural place to build overloads, draw defenders across, and then switch the point of attack. The presence of Eze on the other side adds a different kind of threat: less predictable straight-line running, more drifting into interior spaces where he can combine or shoot.
Through the middle, Ødegaard’s role is pivotal. Arsenal’s strength in creating chances using through balls and creating chances through individual skill suggests they’ll look for the moment when Villa’s midfield screen is just a half-step late. If Rice and Zubimendi can keep Arsenal’s circulation sharp, Ødegaard can pick passes into the channels for runners, or slide balls into Gyökeres’ path as the striker tries to split the centre-backs.
Villa’s profile hints at a plan that doesn’t rely on a single method. They’re strong at creating long shot opportunities, strong at creating chances using through balls, and strong at attacking down the wings. That variety matters against a side described as having no significant weaknesses, because it means Villa can probe in different ways until something sticks. Buendía and McGinn can combine in pockets, Tielemans can help dictate tempo, and Rogers’ numbers point to a player who can finish as well as create.
The key question is how Villa manage Arsenal’s territorial pressure without losing their own attacking threat. Villa’s style includes “playing in their own half” and an offside trap, alongside short passes and through balls. That suggests they may accept spells without the ball, then try to be clean and brave when they do win it. If Arsenal’s line is high, Watkins becomes the obvious transition outlet, with Rogers and Buendía supporting.
Set pieces could quietly loom large. Arsenal are very strong at defending set pieces and strong at attacking them; Villa are listed as weak at defending set pieces and weak in aerial duels. In a rematch where margins can be tight, that is a significant tactical tension. Arsenal don’t need to force wild crosses if they can win free-kicks and corners in good areas and keep asking the same question, again and again, until Villa blink.
There’s also a discipline angle baked into Villa’s weaknesses: avoiding fouling in dangerous areas is flagged as weak. Against a side noted for creating chances through individual skill, that can become a recurring problem, because dribblers invite contact. If Arsenal’s attackers are receiving on the half-turn and driving at defenders, Villa may find themselves defending set-piece situations they’d rather avoid.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Arsenal’s league output underlines why they’re still in top spot. In 18 Premier League matches they’ve scored 33 goals, and their average possession is 59.4% with an 85.5% pass success rate. That mix points to a team that not only creates chances, but sustains pressure through clean ball retention and circulation. They also average 15 shots per league game, which matters because it suggests their dominance often turns into volume, not just territory.
Individually, Arsenal’s front line has multiple contributors rather than one dependency. Gyökeres has five league goals, while Saka and Eze have four each, and Leandro Trossard also has four. Assists are spread too: Rice has three, Trossard has three, and Mikel Merino has three, with Timber and Riccardo Calafiori both on two. That distribution supports the tactical idea of Arsenal attacking in waves, with different players able to deliver the final pass depending on where the space opens.
Villa’s league numbers show a side capable of matching elite opponents punch-for-punch on their day. They’ve scored 29 goals in 18 Premier League games, taking 11.6 shots per game on average, with 51.5% possession and 84.4% pass accuracy. It’s not the profile of a team reduced to survival football. It’s a side that can have the ball, move it, and create chances.
The individual threat is clear as well. Rogers leads Villa’s scoring with seven league goals and three assists, while Watkins has five goals and one assist. Buendía has four goals and two assists, and Tielemans has three assists. That supports the idea of Villa being able to hurt Arsenal through both direct attacking play and supporting runners arriving from deeper areas.
The most relevant number of all, though, might be the simplest: Villa beat Arsenal 2-1 on 06/12/2025. Not because it guarantees anything in the rematch — football has never cared for neat scripts — but because it shows Villa can find solutions against Arsenal’s structure, even when Arsenal are otherwise controlling matches.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big swing factor is Arsenal’s right-sided rhythm. If Saka and Timber start fast and force Villa’s left side into constant defending, it can tilt the whole game towards Arsenal’s preferred territory: high up the pitch, with repeated recoveries and another attack starting before Villa have even reset.
The second is how Villa handle the space behind Arsenal’s midfield when they break. Villa’s strengths in through balls and individual skill point to the kind of moments where one clean pass can change the picture completely. Watkins is the obvious reference point, but the supporting cast matters just as much: Rogers’ output suggests he can arrive at the right moments, and Buendía can create the angle for the decisive pass.
Then there’s the set-piece subplot. Arsenal’s strength at attacking set pieces meets Villa’s weakness at defending them, and Villa’s weakness in aerial duels adds another layer. In matches between strong teams, “free” chances are gold dust — and set pieces are as close as you get to pre-planned chaos.
What could go wrong with this read? The biggest risk is overestimating control. Arsenal can have long spells of possession and still find Villa’s offside trap and deep shape awkward, while Villa’s ability to come back from losing positions suggests they don’t need a perfect 90 minutes to stay in a game. A single sharp transition, a deflection, or one moment of outstanding individual quality can flip the narrative quickly.
Best Bet for Arsenal vs Aston Villa
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Both Teams to Score (Yes)
The upcoming clash at the Emirates pits the league leaders against the division’s most in-form side, creating a scenario where defensive perfection is unlikely for either camp. Arsenal have maintained their position at the summit of the Premier League with 42 points, but their recent defensive record at home suggests a vulnerability that the visitors are well-equipped to exploit. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three league outings at the Emirates, including 2-1 victories over Brighton and Wolves and a 2-0 win over Brentford where they were frequently tested.
Aston Villa arrive in North London on a remarkable 11-game winning streak across all competitions, a run that has seen them rise to third in the table. Their offensive consistency is a hallmark of this streak; they have scored 13 goals in their last five matches alone. Furthermore, the visitors have a proven track record of finding the net against the Gunners, having scored in each of their last six away league visits to this stadium. This includes a 2-2 draw earlier in 2025 and a famous 2-0 victory in April 2024.
Tactically, the match features two of the league’s most clinical individual threats. Morgan Rogers leads the visitors with seven goals and three assists, while Ollie Watkins has contributed five goals. Arsenal’s attack is equally varied, with Viktor Gyökeres, Bukayo Saka, and Eberechi Eze all having registered at least four goals each this season. When these sides met less than a month ago, the match ended in a 2-1 scoreline, reinforcing the trend of both sides finding a way through. Given that the visitors have scored in 83% of their away games this season and Arsenal average 1.83 goals per game, the evidence strongly supports both teams finding the back of the net.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection is Arsenal’s ability to completely dominate territory and possession, which sits at an average of 59.4%. If the home side manages to pin the visitors back and successfully deploy their high defensive line to catch Ollie Watkins offside—a noted part of their tactical setup—they could potentially stifle the visitors’ transitions. Additionally, Arsenal are very strong at defending set pieces, which could nullify one of the visitors’ primary routes to goal if the match becomes a static affair.
Correct score lean: Arsenal 2-1 Aston Villa
Predicting a 2-1 victory for the home side aligns with the high-scoring trends of both teams and their recent match histories. Arsenal have shown a consistent habit of winning by narrow margins this season, with seven of their 13 league victories coming by a single goal. Their last two home matches against Brighton and Wolves both finished 2-1, demonstrating their ability to secure three points even when conceding. Conversely, the visitors have seen a 2-1 scoreline in four of their last five matches, including their win over the Gunners in early December. This scoreline reflects the clinical nature of both attacks while acknowledging the defensive lapses recently seen at the Emirates.
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