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Can Santa Clara turn survival fear into a statement night against Benfica at Estádio de São Miguel? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Santa Clara’s attack is struggling significantly, having scored only 16 goals in 21 matches and failing to find the net regularly. Benfica boast a ruthless defensive record with 21 clean sheets this season and have kept shutouts in their last three league visits to this venue.
Read Rationale ▾
Benfica’s control of territory and superior finishing through Pavlidis makes a multi-goal margin likely. Given Santa Clara’s goal drought and Benfica’s tendency to keep clean sheets against bottom-half sides, a comfortable 2-0 victory aligns with the statistical trends and the hosts’ weak conversion rate.
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Friday at 18:30, Estádio de São Miguel becomes a pressure-cooker. Santa Clara are in the bottom three, stuck in a brutal run of defeats and needing a jolt fast.
Santa Clara vs Benfica — Market Snapshot
Swipe for key markets based on current Primeira Liga form and stats.
Benfica’s 36-match unbeaten run contrasts sharply with Santa Clara’s run of four straight league defeats in the top flight.
Santa Clara’s weak finishing and Benfica’s strong defensive structure suggest a potentially lower-scoring away victory for the visitors.
Benfica have kept clean sheets in their last three visits here, making a 2-0 scoreline a consistent statistical possibility.
Benfica have secured 21 clean sheets across all competitions, highlighting the difficulty Santa Clara faces in breaking them down.
Match Preview
Friday at 18:30, Estádio de São Miguel becomes a pressure-cooker. Santa Clara are in the bottom three, stuck in a brutal run of defeats and needing a jolt fast. Petit is still in the early days of his reign, but the first outing ended with a 1–0 loss to Estrela da Amadora, and the mood is clear: urgency, anxiety, and a desperate hunt for goals.
Benfica arrive with bigger horizons too — a Champions League playoff against Real Madrid is looming — but there’s no room for drifting when you’re third and chasing points. They’ve got the numbers, the control, and the finisher in form. Santa Clara have to make this a street-fight on grass.
Match Volume: Average Shots per Game
Benfica’s high-pressure style leads to significantly more attempts than the hosts, shaping the expected flow of play.
Despite a lower volume than their opponents, the hosts still look to test goalkeepers frequently.
High volume reflects their ability to sustain pressure and work the ball into finishing positions.
Defensive Performance: Clean Sheets Recorded
Clean sheets highlight the gulf in defensive stability between the two sides this season.
The hosts have struggled to keep opponents quiet during their recent run of defeats.
Their ability to shut out teams has been a foundational part of their 36-match unbeaten run.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Santa Clara – injuries/absences
- M. Nunes Fagundes de Araújo (cruciate ligament tear)
- L. Santos Oliveira (special leave)
Benfica – injuries/absences
No injuries or suspensions listed.
Santa Clara probable XI
Batista; Soares, Venâncio, Lima, Victor; Araujo, Klismahn, Ferreira; Lopes, Wendel, Silva
Benfica probable XI
Trubin; António Silva, Araújo, Otamendi, Dahl; Barreiro, Aursnes; Prestianni, Silva, Schjelderup; Pavlidis
Lineup implications
Santa Clara’s big problem isn’t selection — it’s where the goals come from. Vinícius Lopes leads them with 5, and the team’s “very weak” finishing shows up on the scoreboard every week.
Benfica, by contrast, can lean into structure and quality: Vangelis Pavlidis has 19 league goals and fires 3.1 shots per game, so one clean phase in the final third can become a moment.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Santa Clara | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 3rd |
| Points | 17 | 49 |
| Primeira Liga goals (GF/GA) | 16 / 26 | 44 / 12 |
| Shots per game (league) | 12.2 | 17.0 |
| Possession (league) | 47.7% | 59.4% |
| Pass accuracy (league) | 80.2% | 85.7% |
This is a clash of volume and control. Santa Clara do shoot — they just don’t finish, and they don’t sustain pressure for long spells. Benfica bring the full package: more shots, more ball, and a defence that gives away very little.
Tactical Battle
Santa Clara’s route: left-side thrust, aerial fights, and sheer effort
Santa Clara’s identity is direct and combative. They like attacking down the left, they take plenty of shots, and they’re strong in aerial duels — that’s how they can keep Benfica honest even without dominating possession.
Expect them to try to turn this into a physical contest: early balls into channels, bodies around second balls, and crosses that ask questions. Anthony Carter (2.6 aerials won) and Henrique Silva (2.2) hint at the type of battle Santa Clara want — not pretty, but disruptive.
The issue is the moment they reach the box. Santa Clara’s finishing is labelled very weak, and the season total backs it up. If the early chances don’t go in, they risk sinking into frustration, with Benfica’s control slowly tightening like a vice.
Benfica’s plan: suffocate with possession, then punch through
Benfica are built to control territory. They play short passes, work in the opposition half, and look for through balls when the lines open. That suits players who can keep the tempo sharp — Aursnes is tidy, Otamendi gives authority at the back, and the structure behind them is geared for repeat attacks.
The headline, though, is Pavlidis. Nineteen league goals is a finisher’s statement, and Benfica’s strength in creating and finishing chances means Santa Clara can’t afford “nearly” moments — nearly a clearance, nearly a block, nearly tracking a run. One lapse, and Benfica can have it in the net before the crowd has time to breathe.
The swing zone: set pieces and discipline
Benfica are very strong at defending set pieces, and strong attacking them too. That matters because Santa Clara’s best route often comes via aerial contests and dead balls. If Benfica win that battle, Santa Clara’s Plan A starts to wobble.
Key Moments to Watch
- Santa Clara’s first wave: They need early energy and early threat. If Benfica settle into possession, this becomes a long chase.
- The Pavlidis chances: When Pavlidis gets multiple looks, pressure spikes fast. Santa Clara can’t allow easy entries into central finishing zones.
- Offside danger: Santa Clara are weak at avoiding offside, and Benfica attempt through balls often — timing and concentration are everything.
- Discipline and stoppages: Santa Clara have 94 yellows and 5 reds across the season totals shown; if emotions boil over, control slips away.
What could go wrong?
For Santa Clara, it’s the familiar story: good intent, shots taken, but no payoff — and then the game opens up for Benfica’s quality to decide it with one clinical spell. For Benfica, it’s the classic trap of an away island trip: a slow start, a scrappy aerial contest, and a match that refuses to become calm. If they let Santa Clara believe for too long, the stadium gets louder and every set piece becomes a moment.
Quick Hits
- Santa Clara have scored just 16 goals in 21 Primeira Liga matches and arrive on four straight league defeats.
- Benfica have 44 league goals and are undefeated in 36 Primeira Liga matches.
- Benfica have kept a clean sheet in their last three away league visits to this ground.
📊 Market Explainer
Benfica to Win to Nil
This market requires the selected team to win the match while also keeping a clean sheet. If the opposition scores, the bet is unsuccessful even if your team wins.
Pros: Higher odds than a standard win. Cons: High volatility; a single late goal ruins the selection regardless of the scoreline.
Correct Score (2-0)
A precise prediction on the final score at the end of regular time. It offers substantial returns because of the difficulty in pinpointing the exact outcome.
Pros: Significant price advantage. Cons: Narrow margin for success; game-state changes often lead to “over” scores in the final minutes.
🎯 Benfica to Win to Nil Rationale
Tactical Indicators:
- Santa Clara have only scored 16 goals in 21 league matches.
- Benfica have kept clean sheets in their last three away visits to this ground.
- Benfica have recorded 21 clean sheets across all competitions this season.
Benfica’s defensive structure has been elite throughout the campaign, underpinned by 21 clean sheets across all competitions. They enter this fixture on a 36-match unbeaten run in the Primeira Liga, showing a level of control that Santa Clara, currently 16th, struggle to disrupt. The tactical battle is likely to see Benfica dominate possession (averaging 59.4%) and restrict the hosts to long-range efforts or hopeful crosses. Since Santa Clara’s finishing is described as very weak and they have failed to score regularly during their recent run of four straight league defeats, the likelihood of them breaching a defence led by the authoritative Otamendi is low.
Risk Factor: Santa Clara’s aerial strength (2.6 wins for Carter) could lead to a scrappy set-piece goal against the run of play.
🎯 Correct Score (2-0) Rationale
A 2-0 victory for the visitors aligns with the statistical gulf between the sides. Benfica average 17 shots per game and possess a clinical finisher in Vangelis Pavlidis, who has 19 league goals. Given that Santa Clara have conceded 26 times in 21 games and are on a losing streak, Benfica’s ability to create high-quality through balls should result in multiple goals. However, Benfica may also look to manage their energy with a Champions League playoff looming, potentially settling for a controlled two-goal lead rather than pushing for a high-scoring rout. A 2-0 scoreline reflects both Benfica’s efficiency and their historical tendency to keep shutouts at the Estádio de São Miguel.
Risk Factor: An early Benfica goal could force Santa Clara to over-commit, leading to a much higher scoreline on the counter-attack.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Vangelis Pavlidis has 19 league goals, converting high-volume shot creation into a 3rd-place league standing.
Labelled as “very weak” finishers with only 16 goals scored all season despite taking 12.2 shots per game.
⚔️ Interactive Q&A
⊕ What does Win to Nil mean?
Win to Nil means the team you back must win the match and not concede a single goal. If the match ends 1-0 or 2-0, the bet wins, but a 2-1 result would be a loss.
⊕ Why is the 2-0 scoreline plausible?
Benfica have a high shot volume and 19-goal Pavlidis, while Santa Clara struggle to score. Benfica have also kept clean sheets in their last three visits to this stadium.
⊕ What is the Double Chance market?
Double Chance allows you to cover two of the three possible match outcomes (e.g., Home Win or Draw). It offers lower odds but increases your probability of winning.
⊕ How does Draw No Bet work?
In this market, your stake is returned if the match ends in a draw. You only win if your selected team wins, providing a safety net for tight games.
⊕ Who is Santa Clara’s main threat?
Vinícius Lopes leads the team with 5 goals. They also rely on the aerial ability of Anthony Carter during set-pieces.
⊕ Is Benfica’s unbeaten run significant?
Yes, Benfica have not lost in 36 Primeira Liga matches. This reflects a consistent ability to avoid defeat even in difficult away environments.
⊕ What are the risks for Benfica?
The main risk is complacency or rotation due to a looming Champions League match. A slow start in a scrappy away game can sometimes lead to unexpected results.
⊕ How many clean sheets do Benfica have?
Benfica have recorded 21 clean sheets across all competitions. This is a foundational part of their tactical identity under José Mourinho.
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