bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Can Rio Ave halt their devastating slide at Vila do Conde, or will Moreirense’s superior width and structure deepen the crisis? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo location and live streaming rules apply.
Read Rationale ▾
Rio Ave are in a state of collapse, losing four straight matches without scoring. Moreirense possess superior structure, higher possession stats, and a proven goalscorer in Schettine. Given the hosts’ defensive vulnerabilities and lack of attacking edge, the away side offers excellent value to secure three points.
Read Rationale ▾
Rio Ave have conceded at least two goals in each of their last four defeats, failing to score in any. Moreirense have kept seven clean sheets and average nearly 1.3 goals per game. A controlled 2-0 victory for the visitors aligns perfectly with both teams’ current scoring and defensive trends.
Readers’ Tip
Vote your pick — quick & anonymous
Terms & Conditions (tap to view)
Monday night in Vila do Conde has the feel of a fixture that can tilt a season. Rio Ave arrive with the ground shifting beneath Sotiris Sylaidopoulos after a run of heavy defeats.
Rio Ave vs Moreirense — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities based on current match performance stats.
Rio Ave’s four-match losing streak without scoring significantly shifts the win probability toward a structured and disciplined Moreirense side.
Rio Ave have failed to score in 100% of their last four matches, suggesting a very low probability for high goal volume.
Moreirense’s record of seven clean sheets makes a shut-out victory for the away side a statistically plausible outcome tonight.
Both teams average roughly 3 yellow cards per match, suggesting a high probability of a feisty midfield battle tonight.
Match Preview
Moreirense, led by Vasco Costa, have their own frustrations — a slide away from the top four picture — but they still travel with a clearer identity and far more stability in their performances. Kick-off is 20:15 at the Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, and the opening exchanges should tell the story: Rio Ave chasing oxygen, Moreirense looking to control the tempo and squeeze the life out of a wobbling home side.
Defensive Reliability: Clean Sheets This Season
Moreirense have shown significantly higher defensive stability compared to a struggling Rio Ave backline.
With only two shut-outs all campaign, Rio Ave have consistently struggled to keep opponents from finding the net.
A much more robust unit, Moreirense have successfully kept clean sheets in exactly one-third of their league fixtures.
Goal Prevention: Goals Conceded Comparison
The total goals conceded highlights the massive gap in defensive organisation between the two sides.
Averaging nearly two goals conceded per game, the defensive shape has been a primary concern for the hosts.
Despite their own frustrations, the visitors concede significantly fewer goals than their Monday night opponents.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Injuries / Absences
- Rio Ave: Omar Richards (knee injury).
- Moreirense: No absences listed.
Probable Lineups
Rio Ave (possible XI): Van der Gouw; Brabec, Petrasso, Abbey; O Richards, Nikitscher, Papakanellos, Vrousai; Bezerra, Blesa, Spikic
Moreirense (possible XI): Ferreira; Pinto, Batista, Maracas, Kiko; Alanzinho, Assis, R Alonso; Travassos, Semedo, Landerson
What it means
Rio Ave’s bigger problem isn’t the back line names — it’s the pattern: four straight defeats with no goals scored. The winter departures of Clayton and Andre Luiz have left a hole, with the pair responsible for around 75% of Rio Ave’s 22 league goals. That is a massive chunk of end product to replace.
Moreirense’s shape points to balance and service: Dinis Pinto brings delivery (6 assists), while Guilherme Schettine offers a genuine scoring edge (9 goals). That’s a cleaner attacking spine than Rio Ave can currently claim.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Liga Portugal) | Rio Ave | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 21 | 21 |
| Goals scored | 22 | 27 CLINICAL |
| Goals conceded | 41 | 29 |
| Shots per game | 9.1 | 9.1 |
| Possession | 44.8% | 50.3% |
| Pass accuracy | 82.8% | 83.2% |
| Aerials won | 10.9 | 12.0 |
| Team rating | 6.45 | 6.51 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 7 |
Tactical Battle
Rio Ave’s dilemma: right-sided intent, but no payoff
Rio Ave’s style points to attacking down the right, counter-attacks, and spells playing in their own half. On paper, that can be sharp — win it, go quickly, hurt teams before they set. In reality, the recent run suggests the final action has vanished. Four straight league defeats without scoring turns every transition into a desperate moment rather than a rehearsed weapon.
The bigger worry is what happens when Rio Ave don’t have the ball. Their weaknesses are loud: defending set pieces, aerial duels, and defending down the wings are all problems, while stopping opponents creating chances is listed as very weak — and defending against through balls is very weak too. That’s not one leak; that’s the whole hull.
Moreirense’s plan: width, patience, and targeted risk
Moreirense lean into width, with an emphasis on attacking down the left, short passes, and long shots. That mix is awkward for a team that struggles to defend the flanks and can’t reliably stop chances being created. If Moreirense pull Rio Ave’s shape side-to-side, those gaps between wing-back and centre-back become a runway.
The likely flow
- Moreirense to enjoy more of the ball and probe wide, especially down their left.
- Rio Ave to look for breaks and direct moments, but they must find a way to turn territory into a shot that actually tests the keeper.
- If the first goal arrives early, this can open up fast — and Rio Ave’s recent habit of conceding in both halves only heightens the volatility.
Quick Hits
- Blunt Up Front, Bleeding at the Back: Rio Ave have lost four straight league matches by two goals or more, conceding 12 without reply — a brutal run that screams confidence is shot.
- Home Comforts Haven’t Shown Up: Rio Ave have managed just two wins in 10 league games at Estádio do Rio Ave, and they’ve lost their last two there, turning “home advantage” into pressure.
- Same Shot Volume, Very Different Control: Both sides average 9.1 shots per game, but Moreirense play with more of the ball (50.3% possession vs 44.8%) and carry a higher team rating (6.51 vs 6.45).
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces vs set-piece defending: Rio Ave are weak defending set pieces, while Moreirense are very weak in aerial duels. That clash is a genuine swing point.
- Wide pressure: Moreirense’s width and left-sided bias targets Rio Ave’s weakness defending down the wings.
- Discipline and game management: Rio Ave have 57 yellow cards and 4 reds; Moreirense have 60 yellows and 3 reds.
- Clean-sheet mentality: Moreirense have 7 clean sheets to Rio Ave’s 2.
What Could Go Wrong?
For Rio Ave, it’s the same nightmare loop: concede early, chase the game, leave space, and lose shape — especially with recent defeats coming by two or more and without scoring. For Moreirense, dominance without ruthlessness is the danger: if they overplay, give away cheap fouls in dangerous areas, and fail to protect against direct counters, they can hand Rio Ave the kind of “one moment” match that resets confidence.
Market Explainer 📊
Match Result (1X2)
This is the most straightforward market where you select the outcome of the game after 90 minutes. You can choose a Home Win (1), a Draw (X), or an Away Win (2).
Pros: Clear outcomes and often the most liquid market. Cons: Provides no cover if the match ends in a stalemate when you’ve picked a side.
Correct Score
In this market, you must predict the exact final scoreline of the match. It requires high precision as any other result leads to the bet losing.
Pros: High odds and significant returns for small stakes. Cons: Extremely high volatility; a single late goal can ruin a correct prediction.
Moreirense to Win – Rationale 🎯
Rio Ave are currently enduring a period of significant distress on the pitch. The tactical identity of the side has been compromised by a run of four consecutive league defeats, all of which occurred by a margin of two goals or more. Perhaps most damagingly, the hosts have failed to score a single goal during this 12-goal concession streak. The departures of key attacking figures like Clayton and Andre Luiz have removed 75% of their seasonal goal production, leaving the squad looking blunt in the final third.
Tactical Indicators:
- Rio Ave are bottom of the form table with 0 goals in 4 games.
- Moreirense boast 50.3% average possession compared to Rio Ave’s 44.8%.
- Rio Ave are listed as very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances.
Moreirense travel with a far more stable tactical setup under Vasco Costa. While they have had their own difficulties, their ability to control matches through possession and superior passing accuracy gives them a distinct advantage against an anxious Rio Ave. With Dinis Pinto providing consistent delivery from the right and Schettine offering a physical presence in the box, the visitors have the tools to exploit a defence that has been leaking three goals per game on average over the last month.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Dinis Pinto has 6 assists this season, primarily through high-quality deliveries from the flanks.
Rio Ave are listed as very weak at defending against through balls and wide attacking pressure.
Risk Factor: If Moreirense fail to take early chances, they may allow a desperate Rio Ave to grow in confidence through set-piece pressure.
Moreirense 2-0 – Rationale ⚔️
Predicting an exact scoreline requires analysing the intersection of one team’s attacking output and the other’s defensive fragility. Rio Ave have conceded exactly 12 goals in their last four matches, which averages out to 3.0 goals conceded per game. During this same window, they have scored zero. Moreirense, meanwhile, average 1.28 goals scored per game across the entire campaign and have kept clean sheets in 33% of their fixtures. This statistical alignment points toward a comfortable victory for the visitors without a response from the hosts.
The 2-0 scoreline reflects Moreirense’s ability to find the net through varied routes, particularly with Guilherme Schettine leading the line. Given that Rio Ave’s defensive weaknesses include defending against through balls and set pieces, Moreirense are likely to find multiple breakthroughs. Conversely, with Rio Ave missing the players responsible for the vast majority of their goals, Moreirense’s seventh clean sheet of the season appears highly plausible.
Risk Factor: A single moment of individual brilliance or a lapse in discipline resulting in a red card could disrupt the expected flow.
Frequently Asked Questions ⊕
⊕ What is a Match Result bet?
A Match Result bet involves picking whether the home team wins, the away team wins, or the match ends in a draw. It is the most common form of football betting and covers the result at the end of 90 minutes plus injury time.
⊕ How does Correct Score betting work?
Correct Score betting requires you to predict the exact final score of a match. Because this is harder to predict than a simple win or draw, the odds offered are usually much higher.
⊕ Why is Moreirense favoured in this match?
Moreirense are favoured due to Rio Ave’s current poor form, which includes four straight losses without scoring. The visitors possess a more stable defence and a higher team rating across the season.
⊕ What has caused Rio Ave’s recent goal drought?
The drought is largely attributed to the departure of Clayton and Andre Luiz. This pair was responsible for 75% of the team’s total goals this season, leaving a massive void in their attacking efficiency.
⊕ What are the defensive stats for these teams?
Rio Ave have conceded 41 goals in 21 games, keeping just 2 clean sheets. Moreirense have been much tighter, conceding only 29 goals and keeping 7 clean sheets.
⊕ Who are the key players to watch for Moreirense?
Guilherme Schettine is their primary threat with 9 goals, supported by Dinis Pinto who has provided 6 assists from wide areas.
⊕ Is home advantage a factor for Rio Ave?
Statistically, home advantage has been minimal recently, as Rio Ave have won just two of their ten league games at their own stadium this season.
⊕ What are the discipline trends for this fixture?
Both teams have high card counts, with Rio Ave receiving 57 yellows and 4 reds, while Moreirense have 60 yellows and 3 reds, indicating a likely aggressive match.
18+ | GambleAware | T&Cs apply
Please gamble responsibly. Betting should be for entertainment; always set a budget, use deposit limits, and stop immediately if it is no longer fun.
